COVID-19 Forecasts: Hospitalizations
Reported and forecasted new COVID-19 hospital admissions as of November 22, 2021.
Interpretation of Forecasts of New Hospitalizations
- This week’s national ensemble predicts that the number of new daily confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions will likely increase, with 4,100 to 12,600 new confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions likely reported on December 17, 2021.
- The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next four weeks, the number of daily confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions will likely increase in 11 jurisdictions and decrease in 2 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported hospital admissions are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.
- Ensemble forecasts combine diverse independent team forecasts into one forecast. They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance over time, but even the ensemble forecasts do not reliably predict rapid changes in the trends of reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. They should not be relied upon for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends.
- The figure shows the number of new confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions reported in the United States each day from September 14 through November 15 and forecasted new COVID-19 hospital admissions per day over the next 4 weeks, through December 17.
- This week, ensemble forecasts of new reported COVID-19 hospital admissions included forecasts from 7 modeling groups, each of which contributed a forecast for at least one jurisdiction.
- Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details on the assumptions and methods used to produce the forecasts.
State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 hospital admissions per day for the next 4 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of new COVID-19 hospital admissions per day between states and only forecasts meeting a set of ensemble inclusion criteria are shown. Further details are available here: https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensemble/external icon. Plots of the state-level ensemble forecasts and the underlying data can be downloaded below.
Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hubexternal icon.
Forecast Inclusion, Evaluation, and Assumptions
The teams with forecasts included in the ensembles are displayed below. Forecasts are included when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements, further described here: https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensembleexternal icon.
Ensemble and individual team forecast performance is evaluated using a variety of metrics, including the assessment of prediction interval coverage, available at https://delphi.cmu.edu/forecast-eval/external icon.
Reported daily new hospital admissions can vary due to variable staffing and inconsistent reporting patterns within the week. Thus, daily variations in the reported numbers and the forecasts may not fully represent the true number of confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions in each jurisdiction on a specific day.
The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures and use different methods and data sets to estimate the number of new hospital admissions. Additional individual model details are available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon.
Intervention assumptions fall into multiple categories:
- These modeling groups make assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future:
- Columbia Universityexternal icon (Model: Columbia)
- Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluationexternal icon (Model: IHME)
- These modeling groups assume that existing social distancing measures in each jurisdiction will continue through the projected 4-week time period:
- Georgia Institute of Technology, College of Computingexternal icon (Model: GT-DeepCOVID)
- Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Labexternal icon (Model: JHU-APL)
- Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Labexternal icon (Model: Gecko)
- Karlen Working Groupexternal icon (Model: Karlen)
- University of Southern Californiaexternal icon (Model: USC)
1 The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.