Forecasts of Flu Hospitalizations March 14, 2023

Updated March 15, 2023

Reported and forecasted new influenza hospitalizations as of March 14, 2023.

Interpretation of National Forecasts of New Hospitalizations

  • This week’s ensemble predicts that the number of new weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions will remain stable or have an uncertain trend nationally, with 210 to 3,600 new confirmed influenza hospital admissions likely reported in the week ending April 8, 2023.
  • This week, 20 modeling groups contributed 21 forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
  • Ensemble forecasts combine forecasts from diverse models into one forecast. They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance for previous influenza and COVID-19 forecasting efforts, but even the ensemble forecasts may not reliably predict rapid changes.
  • The figure shows the number of new confirmed influenza hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from September 1 through March 11 and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions per week over the next 4 weeks, through April 8. Hospitals are required to report laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations to HHS Protect daily. See COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs [680 KB, 52 pages] for additional details on this guidance.


State Forecasts

State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new influenza hospital admissions per week for the next 4 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of new influenza hospital admissions per week between states and only forecasts included in the ensemble are shown. Plots of the state-level ensemble forecasts and the underlying data can be downloaded below.

Download state forecasts [PDF – 789 KB]

Download all forecast data [XLS – 403 KB]

Additional forecast data and information about submitting forecasts are available at

Contributing Teams