Forecasts of Flu Hospitalizations
Updated May 17, 2023
Flu forecasting summaries for the 2023-2024 season will begin again in fall 2023. The May 17, 2023, forecast summary below was the last of the 2022-2023 season.
Reported and forecasted new influenza hospitalizations as of May 16, 2023.
Interpretation of National Forecasts of New Hospitalizations
- This week’s ensemble predicts that the number of new weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions will remain stable or have an uncertain trend nationally, with 160 to 3,200 new confirmed influenza hospital admissions likely reported in the week ending June 10, 2023.
- This week, 17 modeling groups contributed 18 forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
- Ensemble forecasts combine forecasts from diverse models into one forecast. They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance for previous influenza and COVID-19 forecasting efforts, but even the ensemble forecasts may not reliably predict rapid changes.
- The figure shows the number of new confirmed influenza hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from September 1 through May 13 and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions per week over the next 4 weeks, through June 10. Hospitals are required to report laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations to HHS Protect daily. See COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs [680 KB, 52 pages] for additional details on this guidance.
State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new influenza hospital admissions per week for the next 4 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of new influenza hospital admissions per week between states and only forecasts included in the ensemble are shown. Plots of the state-level ensemble forecasts and the underlying data can be downloaded below.
Download state forecasts [PDF – 788 KB]
Download all forecast data [XLS – 338 KB]
Additional forecast data and information about submitting forecasts are available at https://github.com/cdcepi/Flusight-forecast-data.
- California Department of Public Health (CADPH) (Model: FluCAT)
- Carnegie Mellon Delphi Group (Model: CMU-TimeSeries)
- CEPH Lab at Indiana University (Model: Rtrend_fluH)
- Columbia University (Model: CU-ensemble)
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health (NIH) (Model: Flu_ARIMA)
- Johns Hopkins ID Dynamics (Model: CovidScenarioPipeline)
- Los Alamos National Lab and Northern Arizona University (Model: LosAlamos_NAU-CModel_Flu)
- MIGHTE (Model: Nsemble)
- MOBS Lab at Northeastern (Model: MOBS-GLEAM_FLUH)
- Predictive Science Inc (Model: PSI-DICE)
- Signature Science (Model: SigSci-CREG)
- Signature Science (Model: SigSci-TSENS)
- Srivastava Group (Model: SGroup-RandomForest)
- UGA_flucast (Model: UGA_flucast-OKeeffe)
- UNC Infectious Disease Dynamics (Model: InfluPaint)
- University of Massachusetts-Amherst (Model: UMass-trends_ensemble)
- University of Virginia, Biocomplexity Institute (Model: UVAFluX-Ensemble)
- Virginia Tech, Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics (Model: VTSanghani-ExogModel)