Forecasts of Flu Hospitalizations

Updated May 18, 2022

Reported and forecasted new influenza hospitalizations as of May 16, 2022.

Interpretation of National Forecasts of New Hospitalizations

  • This week’s ensemble predicts that the number of new weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions will remain stable or have an uncertain trend nationally, with 1,700 to 4,700 new confirmed influenza hospital admissions likely reported in the week ending June 11, 2022.
  • This week, 16 modeling groups contributed one or more forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the new hospitalization ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
  • Ensemble forecasts combine diverse independent team forecasts into one forecast. They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance for previous influenza and COVID-19 forecasts, but even the ensemble forecasts may not reliably predict rapid changes in the trends.

National-Forecast-Incident-Hospitalizations-2022-05-16

  • The figure shows the number of new confirmed influenza hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from September 26 through May 14 and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions per week over the next 4 weeks, through June 11. Effective February 2, 2022, hospitals are required to report laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations to HHS Protect daily. Prior to this update, reporting influenza hospitalizations was optional (noted as grey in the above figure). See COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQspdf iconexternal icon for additional details on this guidance.

Download all national data excel icon[XLS – 10 KB]

State Forecasts

State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new influenza hospital admissions per week for the next 4 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of new influenza hospital admissions per week between states and only forecasts included in the ensemble are shown. Plots of the state-level ensemble forecasts and the underlying data can be downloaded below.

Download state forecasts pdf icon[PDF – 1 MB]

Download all forecast data excel icon[XLS – 367 KB]

Additional forecast data and information about submitting forecasts are available at https://github.com/cdcepi/Flusight-forecast-dataexternal icon.

Contributing Teams

Carnegie Mellon Delphi Groupexternal icon (Model: CMU-TimeSeries)

Columbia Universityexternal icon (Model: CU-ensemble)

Georgia Institute of Technologyexternal icon (Model: GT-FluFNP)

Guidehouse FluSight Teamexternal icon (Model: GH-Flusight)

IEM Healthexternal icon (Model: IEM_Health-FluProject)

Los Alamos National Lab and Northern Arizona Universityexternal icon (Model: LosAlamos_NAU-CModel_Flu)

LU Computational Uncertainty Labexternal icon (Model: LUcompUncertLab-humanjudgment)

LU Computational Uncertainty Labexternal icon (Model: LUcompUncertLab-TEVA)

MOBS Lab at Northeasternexternal icon (Model: MOBS-GLEAM_FLUH)

Predictive Science Incexternal icon (Model: PSI-DICE)

Signature Scienceexternal icon (Model: SigSci-CREG)

Signature Scienceexternal icon (Model: SigSci-TSENS)

Srivastava Groupexternal icon (Model: SGroup-RandomForest)

Srivastava Groupexternal icon (Model: SGroup-SIkJalpha)

University of Georgia Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases Forecasting Working Groupexternal icon (Model: CEID-Walk)

University of Massachusetts-Amherstexternal icon (Model: ARIMA)

University of Massachusetts-Amherstexternal icon (Model: UMass-trends_ensemble)

University of Texas FluCastexternal icon (Model: UT_FluCast-Voltaire)

University of Virginia, Biocomplexity Instituteexternal icon (Model: UVAFluX-Ensemble)

Virginia Tech, Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analyticsexternal icon (Model: VTSanghani-ExogModel)