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Spatiotemporal Modeling of Premature Mortality in Mississippi: A County-Level Analysis of Years of Potential Life Lost, 2015–2025
ORIGINAL RESEARCH — Volume 23 — July 14, 2026
PEER REVIEWED
| Quintile YPLL | No. of counties, by year | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 2018 | 2022 | 2025 | |
| 6,993.54–9,958.62 | 27 | 20 | 14 | 6 |
| 9,958.63–11,425.85 | 27 | 20 | 13 | 6 |
| 11,425.86–12,766.48 | 14 | 19 | 26 | 7 |
| 12,766.49–14,553.13 | 12 | 19 | 12 | 23 |
| 14,553.14–22,826.09 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 41 |
Figure 1. Choropleth map of years of potential life lost (YPLL) rates in A) 2015, B) 2018, C) 2022, and D) 2025, Mississippi. Choropleth maps were created by using quintile-based classification, with fixed cut points derived from the pooled distribution of county-level YPLL values across all study years to ensure consistent color assignment and comparability over time. Data source: 2015, 2018, 2022, 2025 releases of County Health Rankings and Roadmaps (12,13).
YPLL rates shifted markedly between the 2015 and 2025 County Health Rankings releases. High-high clusters increased from 12 counties in 2015 to 21 counties in 2025, with growth concentrated in the Delta and Mississippi River regions. By 2025, the following counties were added to the high–high category: Adams, Carroll, Claiborne, Franklin, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Leflore, Tallahatchie, and Yazoo counties. Meanwhile, the number of low–low clusters declined from 31 counties to 12, including several central and coastal counties, such as Hinds, Forrest, Monroe, and Chickasaw counties.
Figure 2. Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) cluster map of years of potential life lost (YPLL) rates in A) 2015 and B) 2025 in Mississippi. High–high indicates counties with above-average YPLL surrounded by counties with above-average YPLL; low–low indicates counties with below-average YPLL surrounded by counties with below-average YPLL; low–high indicates counties with below-average YPLL surrounded by counties with above-average YPLL; high–low indicates counties with above-average YPLL surrounded by counties with below-average YPLL; nonsignificant indicates areas with no significant clustering (P ≥ .05). Significance was based on 999 permutations (P < .05). Determinants of YPLL were from spatial autoregressive lag modeling. Data source: 2015 and 2025 release of County Health Rankings and Roadmaps (12,13).
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