Identification of Hypertension Predictors and Application to Hypertension Prediction in an Urban Han Chinese Population: A Longitudinal Study, 2005–2010
ORIGINAL RESEARCH — Volume 12 — October 29, 2015
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Figure 1. Prevalence of hypertension, by age, at baseline, in an urban Han population, China, 2005–2010.
| Age, y | Hypertension Prevalence, % | |
|---|---|---|
| Men | Women | |
| 18 | 17.91 | 2.08 |
| 19 | 10.23 | 0 |
| 20 | 15.44 | 4.92 |
| 21 | 8.6 | 0.69 |
| 22 | 12.02 | 1.78 |
| 23 | 12.46 | 2.65 |
| 24 | 12.54 | 2.91 |
| 25 | 12.46 | 1.27 |
| 26 | 11.47 | 2.29 |
| 27 | 12.91 | 2.2 |
| 28 | 13.09 | 2.44 |
| 29 | 12.45 | 3.09 |
| 30 | 15.51 | 2.2 |
| 31 | 14.29 | 3.05 |
| 32 | 16.94 | 3.04 |
| 33 | 15.5 | 2.93 |
| 34 | 17.29 | 3.17 |
| 35 | 20.71 | 3.74 |
| 36 | 21.73 | 3.7 |
| 37 | 17.62 | 4.38 |
| 38 | 24.19 | 4.66 |
| 39 | 25.43 | 4.06 |
| 40 | 27.93 | 6.99 |
| 41 | 27.77 | 7.32 |
| 42 | 28.43 | 8.98 |
| 43 | 30.2 | 9.79 |
| 44 | 30.46 | 10.73 |
| 45 | 33.55 | 13.02 |
| 46 | 35.34 | 13.72 |
| 47 | 35.13 | 14.55 |
| 48 | 39.21 | 18.88 |
| 49 | 35.91 | 18.22 |
| 50 | 37.45 | 21.62 |
| 51 | 40.97 | 24.39 |
| 52 | 41.46 | 26.11 |
| 53 | 40.85 | 27.83 |
| 54 | 43.43 | 32.16 |
| 55 | 43.27 | 32.58 |
| 56 | 43.24 | 33.78 |
| 57 | 44.41 | 41.92 |
| 58 | 49.64 | 42.96 |
| 59 | 46.72 | 45.53 |
| 60 | 48.8 | 45.95 |
| 61 | 48.34 | 44.26 |
| 62 | 53.5 | 46.58 |
| 63 | 55 | 54.62 |
| 64 | 53.31 | 54.97 |
| 65 | 55.68 | 53.95 |
| 66 | 58.91 | 58.79 |
| 67 | 58.59 | 53.8 |
| 68 | 64.62 | 53.09 |
| 69 | 62.35 | 60.38 |
| 70 | 64.94 | 62.96 |
| 71 | 64.99 | 68.25 |
| 72 | 63.95 | 62.41 |
| 73 | 71.99 | 68.16 |
| 74 | 71.12 | 70.61 |
| 75 | 71.35 | 69.83 |
| 76 | 71.97 | 69.68 |
| 77 | 79.4 | 67.8 |
| 78 | 74.42 | 75.42 |
| 79 | 70.62 | 73.86 |
| 80 | 72.4 | 68.63 |
| 81 | 64.89 | 75.61 |
| 82 | 70.68 | 71.74 |
| 83 | 77.27 | 58.06 |
| 84 | 70.59 | 81.82 |
| 85 | 60 | 68.42 |
For men: HSP = (0.097345 × body mass index) + (0.045604 × systolic blood pressure) + (0.051722 × diastolic blood pressure) + (0.147807 × fasting blood glucose) + (0.096384 × triglycerides) – (0.00694 × high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) + (0.007746 × hemoglobin) + (0.0022516 × hematocrit) + (0.05383 × white blood cell count) + (0.050579 × lymphocyte count) + (0.074163 × neutrophil granulocyte count) − 71.26765. For women: HSP = (0.114583 × body mass index) + (0.033556 × systolic blood pressure) + (0.045974 × diastolic blood pressure) + (0.118307 × fasting blood glucose) + (0.158433 × triglycerides) – (0.33512 × high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) + (0.017102 × hemoglobin) + (0.065664 × hematocrit) + (0.119985 × white blood cell count) + (0.26673 × lymphocyte count) – (0.111738 × neutrophil granulocyte count) − 66.90516.
Figure 2. The 5-year risk matrix for risk appraisal of hypertension by sex. Graphs A1 and B1 are absolute risk matrices for men and women, respectively; graphs A2 and B2 are relative absolute risk matrices for men and women, respectively. The dashed lines indicate discrimination criteria of absolute risk for predicting hypertension; the curved lines indicate mean absolute risk in the population. Abbreviation: HSP, hypertension synthetic predictor.
Appendix B shows ROC curves for hypertension prediction models, which are represented in the 2 graphs.
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