Birth Expectations of Women Ages 20–49: United States, 2022–2023

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NCHS Data Brief No. 560, May 2026

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Gladys M. Martinez, Ph.D.

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Key findings

Data from the National Survey of Family Growth

  • During 2022−2023, nearly 60% of women ages 20–29 who had not had any live births or who had one live birth expected to have a child in the future compared with about 30% of those with two or more live births.
  • About two in five women ages 20–29 with no prior live births did not expect to have any children in the future.
  • As age increased, the percentage of women with one or more previous live births who expected to have another child in 2–5 years declined.
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Introduction

The National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) has measured women’s birth expectations since 1973, because this indicator is a key determinant of future family size and can be used to project U.S. birth rates. Birth expectations vary by age, number of prior live births, and other demographic characteristics (1–5). This report uses data from the 2022–2023 NSFG to present the most recent estimates of birth expectations by age and number of previous live births among U.S. women ages 20–49.

Age and number of live births

  • In 2022–2023, more than one-half of women ages 20–29 who had not had any live births (59.2%) or had one live birth (58.6%) expected to have a child in the future compared with about one-third of those with two or more live births (30.9%) (Figure 1, Table 1).
  • Among women ages 30–39, a higher percentage of those who had one live birth (54.1%) expected to have a child in the future compared with those who had not had any live births (42.9%) and those with two or more live births (13.2%).
  • About 10% of women ages 40–49 who had not had any live births (9.6%) or had one live birth (8.5%) expected to have a child in the future compared with 2.9% of those with two or more live births.
  • Women’s expectations of having a child in the future decreased with age, regardless of prior childbirth experience.

Figure 1 is a bar chart that shows the percentages of females aged 20−49 in 2022−2023 who expect to have a child in the future by current age and number of live births.
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Expected timing for nulliparous women

  • In 2022–2023, among nulliparous women (those who have never had a live birth) ages 20–29, 38.9% did not expect to have a child, while 9.3% expected to have their first child within 2 years, 24.0% within 2–5 years, and 27.9% in more than 5 years (Figure 2, Table 2).
  • Among nulliparous women ages 30–39, 57.0% did not expect to have a child, while 19.3% expected to have their first child within 2 years, 20.3 % within 2–5 years, and 3.3% in more than 5 years.
  • Among nulliparous women ages 40–49, 90.2% did not expect to have a child, while 6.8% expected to have their first child within 2 years, 2.8% within 2–5 years, and 0.2% in more than 5 years.

Figure 2 is a bar chart that shows the percent distribution of expected timing of first child’s birth among nulliparous women ages 20−49 in 2022−2023, by age groups.
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Expected timing for multiparous women

  • In 2022–2023, among multiparous women (those who have had one or more live births) ages 20–29, 54.9% did not expect to have more children, while 13.1% expected to have another child within 2 years, 27.7% within 2–5 years, and 4.3% in more than 5 years (Figure 3, Table 3).
  • Among multiparous women ages 30–39, 73.1% did not expect to have more children, while 16.9% expected to have another child within 2 years, 9.6% within 2–5 years, and 0.4% in more than 5 years.
  • Among multiparous women ages 40–49, 95.7% did not expect to have more children, while 3.8% expected to have another child within 2 years, 0.3% within 2–5 years, and 0.3% in more than 5 years.

Figure 3 is a bar chart that shows the percent distribution of expected timing of first child’s birth among multiparous women ages 20−49 in 2022−2023, by age groups.
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Summary

In 2022–2023, women’s expectations for having children in the future varied by age and number of prior live births. The expected timing of a first or subsequent birth also varied by age. Although the percentage of women who did not expect to have any children increased with age regardless of the number of previous births, patterns in the timing of expected future births differed between nulliparous and multiparous women.

A higher proportion of nulliparous women ages 30–39 expecting their first birth within 2 years compared with those ages 20–29 is consistent with other indicators of delayed childbearing, such as increases in mean maternal age at first birth (6). Although most nulliparous women ages 40–49 did not expect to have a child, about 10% expected to have a child in the future.

Among multiparous women, a higher percentage of those ages 20–29 expected to have their next child within 2–5 years compared with those ages 30–39. In contrast, a similar percentage of nulliparous women ages 20–29 and 30–39 expected to have their first child within 2–5 years. This is also consistent with delayed childbearing and increased maternal age at first birth.

Definitions

Age: The respondent’s age at the time of the survey (recode variable: AGER).

Birth expectations: Expectations respondents have regarding future childbearing are captured in the recode variable INTENT. For currently pregnant women, INTENT refers to birth expectations after the current pregnancy. For nulliparous women, INTENT reflects their expectation for having a first birth in the future. For multiparous women, INTENT reflects their expectation for another birth. These expectations for future births, as reported at the time of the survey, are distinct from respondents’ reports of the intendedness of each pregnancy at time of conception.

Expectation of timing of future births: Respondents who intend to have a birth in the future were asked when they expect their first or next child to be born. JINTNEXT is the variable for currently married or cohabiting women, and INTNEXT is the variable for all other women. For respondents who already have children, the questions are phrased as “another child (in the future).” For respondents who have not yet had any live births, the question is phrased as “a child (in the future).”

Data source and methods

The 2022–2023 NSFG included information from 5,586 females ages 15–49, of whom 4,856 women ages 20–49 are included in this report. Details about the survey content, administration, response rates, planning, and funding can be found in documentation on the NSFG website (7,8). All estimates in this report are representative of the U.S. household population of women ages 20–49 in 2022. Statistics for this report were produced using SAS-callable SUDAAN software version 11.0.3 to account for NSFG’s complex sample design. Differences between percentages were evaluated using two-tailed t tests at the 5% level. No adjustments were made for multiple comparisons. Survey clusters minus strata were used as the degrees of freedom for significance testing of pairwise comparisons. The data presented in this report are bivariate associations that may be explained by other factors not controlled for in the report. Due to changes in survey design to a multimode approach and lower response rates resulting from several factors (7), comparisons with previous NSFG data releases should be made with caution. All estimates presented meet National Center for Health Statistics guidelines for presentation of proportions (9).

About the author

Gladys M. Martinez is with the National Center for Health Statistics, Division of Health Interview Statistics.

References

  1. Daugherty J, Martinez G. Birth expectations of U.S. women aged 15–44. NCHS Data Brief. 2016 Oct;(260):1–8. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db260.pdf.
  2. Hayford SR. The evolution of fertility expectations over the life course. Demography. 2009 Nov;46(4):765–83. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0073.
  3. Quesnel-Vallée A, Morgan SP. Missing the target? Correspondence of fertility intentions and behavior in the U.S. Popul Res Policy Rev. 2003 Dec;22:497–525. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/B:POPU.0000021074.33415.c1.
  4. Schoen R, Kim YJ, Nathanson CA, Fields J, Astone NM. Why do Americans want children? Popul Dev Rev. 1997 Jun;23(2):333−58. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2137548.
  5. Gemmill A. From some to none? Fertility expectation dynamics of permanently childless women. Demography. 2019 Feb;56(1):129–49. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-018-0739-7.
  6. Brown AD, Hamilton BE, Kissin DM, Martin JA. Trends in mean age of mothers: United States, 2016–2023. Natl Vital Stat Rep. 2025 Jun;74(9):1–7. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.15620/cdc/174598.
  7. National Center for Health Statistics. Public-use data file documentation: 2022–2023 National Survey of Family Growth, user’s guide. 2024. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nsfg/guidefaqs/NSFG-2022-2023-UsersGuide-revJuly2025.pdf.
  8. National Center for Health Statistics. 2022–2023 National Survey of Family Growth: Public use data files, codebooks, and documentation. 2024. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nsfg/nsfg-2022-2023-puf.htm.
  9. Parker JD, Talih M, Malec DJ, Beresovsky V, Carroll M, Gonzalez JF Jr, et al. National Center for Health Statistics data presentation standards for proportions. Vital Health Stat 2. 2017 Aug;(175):1–22. PMID: 30248016. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/series/sr_02/sr02_175.pdf.

Suggested citation

Martinez GM. Birth expectations of women ages 20–49: United States, 2022–2023. NCHS Data Brief. 2026 May;(560):1─10. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.15620/cdc/252443.

Copyright information

All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

National Center for Health Statistics

Carolyn M. Greene, M.D., Acting Director
Amy M. Branum, Ph.D., Associate Director for Science

Division of Health Interview Statistics

Stephen J. Blumberg, Ph.D., Director
Anjel Vahratian, Ph.D., M.P.H., Associate Director for Science