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Predicting Risk of Type 2 Diabetes by Using Data on Easy-to-Measure Risk Factors


1A. The interaction between an age younger than 69 and a systolic blood pressure greater than 190 mm Hg increased the risk of diabetes. 1B. The greatest risk of diabetes was at the intersection of a diastolic blood pressure of 50 mm Hg and age older than 60. 1C. Both long hours of sleep and short hours of sleep increased diabetes risk. 1D. A high depression score increased diabetes risk.

Figure 1. A) Contribution of interaction between systolic blood pressure and age to the risk of diabetes, B) Contribution of interaction between diastolic blood pressure and age to the risk of diabetes, C) Contribution of interaction between age and sleep duration to the risk of diabetes, and D) Contribution of interaction between age and depression score to the risk of diabetes.

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Text describes the findings depicted in this figure.

Figure 2. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) comparing 3 diabetes risk-prediction models: a logistic regression model, an additive MARS model, and 2-way interaction MARS model. Abbreviation: MARS, multivariate adaptive regression splines.

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