The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) developed statistical methods and analytic tools to help with the selection of targets for Healthy People 2030. Federal subject matter experts serving on the Healthy People 2030 workgroups were responsible for selecting targets. These experts used data-driven approaches whenever possible, but they also considered subject matter expertise, public health policies, and agency or national priorities.
To learn more about the statistical methods and analytical tools refer to: Hubbard K, Talih M, Klein RJ, and Huang DT. Target-Setting Methods in Healthy People 2030. Healthy People Statistical Notes, no 28. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2020. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/hp_pubs.htm#notes
Target Setting Tools
Trend Analysis Tool
The purpose of this tool is to provide candidate targets using a projection based on linear trend analysis. Specifically, weighted or ordinary least squares is used to fit a trend line based on historical data, resulting in predicted values (that can be used as candidate targets) using up to seven confidence levels. Trend-Analysis-Tool excel icon[XLS – 141 KB]
Percent Improvement and Minimal Statistical Significance Tool
The purpose of this tool is to provide up to two candidate targets using the baseline (initial) value only to calculate a percent or percentage point improvement. If the standard error is available, an additional candidate target, based on minimal statistical significance, is also provided. Percent-Improvement-and-MSS-Tool excel icon[XLS – 39 KB]