COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths
Reported and forecasted new and total COVID-19 deaths as of September 13, 2021.
Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths
- Ensemble forecasts combine diverse independent team forecasts into one forecast and have been among the most reliable in performance over time. However, even the ensemble forecasts have failed to reliably predict rapid changes in the trends of reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Due to this limitation, they should not be relied upon for decisions about the possibility or timing of changes in trends.
- This week’s national ensemble predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next 4 weeks, with 5,600 to 17,400 new deaths likely reported in the week ending October 9, 2021. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 689,000 to 719,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
- The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely increase in 2 jurisdictions and decrease in 3 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.
- The figures show the number of new (top row) and total (bottom row) COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from July 10 through September 11 and forecasted over the next 4 weeks, through October 9.
- This week, ensemble forecasts of new reported COVID-19 deaths included forecasts from 28 modeling groups, each of which contributed a forecast for new or total deaths for at least one jurisdiction.
- Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details on the assumptions and methods used to produce the forecasts.
State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 deaths for the next 4 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of COVID-19 deaths between states and only forecasts meeting a set of ensemble inclusion criteria are shown. Further details are available here: https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensemble/external icon. Plots of the state-level ensemble forecast and the underlying data can be downloaded below.
Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hubexternal icon.
The teams with forecasts included in the ensembles are displayed below. Forecasts are included when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements, further described here: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub#ensemble-modelexternal icon.
Ensemble and individual team forecast performance is evaluated using a variety of metrics, including the assessment of prediction interval coverage, available at https://delphi.cmu.edu/forecast-eval/external icon.
The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Additional individual model details are available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.md.external icon Details on the ensemble’s accuracy in short-term predictions and its usefulness as a real-time tool to help guide policy and planning can be found here: Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.external icon
Intervention assumptions fall into multiple categories:
- These modeling groups make assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future:
- These modeling groups assume that existing social distancing measures will continue through the projected 4-week time period:
- AIpertexternal icon (Model: AIpert)
- Bob Paganoexternal icon (Model: BPagano)
- Georgia Institute of Technology, College of Computingexternal icon (Model: GT-DeepCOVID)
- IEMexternal icon (Model: IEM)
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Labexternal icon (Model: JHU-APL)
- Johns Hopkins University, Center for Systems Science and Engineeringexternal icon (Model: JHU-CSSE)
- Johns Hopkins University, Infectious Disease Dynamics Labexternal icon (Model: JHU-IDD)
- Karlen Working Groupexternal icon (Model: Karlen)
- Los Alamos National Laboratoryexternal icon (Model: LANL)
- Masaryk Universityexternal icon (Model: Masaryk)
- MIT-Cassandraexternal icon (Model: MIT-Cassandra)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Institute for Data, Systems, and Societyexternal icon (Model: MIT-ISOLAT)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Laboratory of Computational Physiologyexternal icon (Model: MIT-LCP)
- Microsoft AIexternal icon (Model: Microsoft)
- Northeastern University, Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systemsexternal icon (Model: MOBS)
- Qi-Jun Hongexternal icon (Model: QJHong)
- Robert Walravenexternal icon (Model: ESG)
- Steve McConnellexternal icon (Model: CovidComplete)
- University of Arizonaexternal icon (Model: UA)
- University of California, San Diego and Northeastern Universityexternal icon (Model: UCSD-NEU)
- University of Georgia, Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseaseexternal icon (Model: UGA-CEID)
- University of Massachusetts, Amherstexternal icon (Model: UMass-MB)
- University of Michiganexternal icon (Model: UM)
- University of Southern Californiaexternal icon (Model: USC)
- Previous COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths
- FAQ: COVID-19 Data and Surveillance
- CDC COVID Data Tracker
- COVID-19 Mathematical Modeling
- Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.external icon
- Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the U.S. | medRxivexternal icon