COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths
Reported and forecasted new and total COVID-19 deaths as of November 21, 2022.
Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths
- This week’s national ensemble predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next 4 weeks, with 1,000 to 3,800 new deaths likely reported in the week ending December 17, 2022. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 1,083,000 to 1,091,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
- The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predicts that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely increase in 2 jurisdictions and decrease in 1 jurisdiction, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.
- Ensemble forecasts combine diverse independent team forecasts into one forecast. While they have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance over time, even the ensemble forecasts have not reliably predicted rapid changes in the trends of reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. They should not be relied upon for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends.
- The figures show the number of new (left) and total (right) COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from September 17 through November 19 and forecasted over the next 4 weeks, through December 17.
- This week, 14 modeling groups contributed a forecast that was eligible for inclusion in the new or total deaths ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction.
- Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details on the assumptions and methods used to produce the forecasts.
State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 deaths for the next 4 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of COVID-19 deaths between states and only forecasts meeting a set of ensemble inclusion criteria are shown. Further details are available here: https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensemble/. Plots of the state-level ensemble forecast and the underlying data can be downloaded below.
Additional forecast data and information about submitting forecasts are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hub.
Forecasts are listed when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements and a subset are included in the ensemble. Further details are available here: https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensemble.
Ensemble and specific team forecast performance is evaluated using a variety of metrics, including the assessment of prediction interval coverage. This assessment is available at https://delphi.cmu.edu/forecast-eval/.
The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Additional individual model details are available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.md. Details on the ensemble’s accuracy in short-term predictions and its usefulness as a real-time tool to help guide policy and planning can be found here: Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.
Intervention assumptions fall into multiple categories:
- These modeling groups make assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future:
- These modeling groups assume that existing social distancing measures will continue through the projected 4-week time period:
- Bob Pagano (Model: BPagano)
- Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Model: DNN)
- Johns Hopkins University, Infectious Disease Dynamics Lab (Model: JHU-IDD)
- Karlen Working Group (Model: Karlen)
- Lehigh University Computational Uncertainty Lab (Model: LUcompUncertLab)
- Masaryk University (Model: Masaryk)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cassandra (Model: MIT-Cassandra)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society (Model: MIT-ISOLAT)
- Microsoft AI (Model: Microsoft)
- Northeastern University, Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems (Model: MOBS)
- University of California, San Diego and Northeastern University (Model: UCSD-NEU)
- University of Georgia, Center for the Ecology of Infectious Disease (Model: UGA-CEID)
- Previous COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths – 2022 | 2021 | 2020
- FAQ: COVID-19 Data and Surveillance
- CDC COVID Data Tracker
- COVID-19 Mathematical Modeling
- Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.
- Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the U.S. | medRxiv