COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths
Weekly public releases of COVID-19 ensemble forecasts on deaths were stopped as of March 13, 2023. CDC will continue to collect COVID-19 mortality data for analysis and monitoring purposes.
CDC COVID-19 death forecasts are ensemble forecasts which combine diverse independent team forecasts into one forecast. While they have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance over time, even the ensemble forecasts have not reliably predicted rapid changes in the trends of reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. They should not be relied upon for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends.
Previous COVID-19 Death Forecasts 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020
Ensemble and individual team forecast performance were evaluated using a variety of metrics, including the assessment of prediction interval coverage, available at https://delphi.cmu.edu/forecast-eval/.
Additional forecast data and information about teams who submitted forecasts for evaluation and potential inclusion in the ensemble are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hub.
- Previous COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths – 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020
- FAQ: COVID-19 Data and Surveillance
- CDC COVID Data Tracker
- COVID-19 Mathematical Modeling
- Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.
- Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the U.S. | medRxiv