COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths
Reported and forecasted new and total COVID-19 deaths as of April 19, 2021.
Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths
- This week, ensemble forecasts of new reported COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks included forecasts from 36 modeling groups, each of which contributed a forecast for new or total deaths for at least one jurisdiction.
- This week’s national ensemble predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next 4 weeks, with 2,100 to 8,800 new deaths likely reported in the week ending May 15, 2021. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 579,000 to 596,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
- The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely decrease in 2 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.
- The figures show the number of new (top row) and total (bottom row) COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from February 13 through April 17 and forecasted over the next 4 weeks, through May 15.
- Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details on the assumptions and methods used to produce the forecasts.
State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 deaths for the next 4 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of COVID-19 deaths between states and only forecasts meeting a set of ensemble inclusion criteria are shown. Further details are available here: https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensemble/external icon. Plots of the state-level ensemble forecast and the underlying data can be downloaded below.
Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hubexternal icon.
The teams with forecasts included in the ensembles are displayed below. Forecasts are included when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements, further described here: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub#ensemble-modelexternal icon.
The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Additional individual model details are available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon. Details on the ensemble’s accuracy in short-term predictions and its usefulness as a real-time tool to help guide policy and planning can be found here: Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.external icon
Intervention assumptions fall into multiple categories:
- These modeling groups make assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future:
- Columbia Universityexternal icon (Model: Columbia)
- Covid-19 Simulator Consortiumexternal icon (Model: Covid19Sim)
- Georgia Institute of Technology, Center for Health and Humanitarian Systemsexternal icon (Model: GT-CHHS)
- Google and Harvard School of Public Healthexternal icon (Model: Google-HSPH)
- Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluationexternal icon (Model: IHME)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Operations Research Centerexternal icon (Model: MIT-ORC)
- Predictive Science Inc.external icon (Model: PSI)
- These modeling groups assume that existing social distancing measures will continue through the projected 4-week time period:
- Bob Paganoexternal icon (Model: BPagano)
- Carnegie Mellon Delphi Groupexternal icon (Model: CMU)
- Columbia University and University of North Carolinaexternal icon (Model: Columbia-UNC)
- Discrete Dynamical Systemsexternal icon (Model: DDS)
- Georgia Institute of Technology, College of Computingexternal icon (Model: GT-DeepCOVID)
- IEMexternal icon (Model: IEM)
- Iowa State Universityexternal icon (Model: ISU)
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Labexternal icon (Model: JHU-APL)
- Johns Hopkins University, Center for Systems Science and Engineeringexternal icon (Model: JHU-CSSE)
- Karlen Working Groupexternal icon (Model: Karlen)
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicineexternal icon (Model: LSHTM)
- LockNQuayexternal icon (Model: LNQ)
- Los Alamos National Laboratoryexternal icon (Model: LANL)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, COVID-19 Policy Allianceexternal icon (Model: MIT-CovAlliance)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Institute for Data, Systems, and Societyexternal icon (Model: MIT-ISOLAT)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Laboratory of Computational Physiologyexternal icon (Model: MIT-LCP)
- Microsoft AIexternal icon (Model: Microsoft)
- Northeastern University, Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systemsexternal icon (Model: MOBS)
- Oliver Wymanexternal icon (Model: Oliver Wyman)
- Robert Walravenexternal icon (Model: ESG)
- Steve McConnellexternal icon (Model: CovidComplete)
- State University of New York, Upstate Medical University and Syracuse Universityexternal icon (Model: UpstateSU)
- University of Arizonaexternal icon (Model: UA)
- University of California, Mercedexternal icon (Model: UCM)
- University of California, San Diego and Northeastern Universityexternal icon (Model: UCSD-NEU)
- University of Georgia, Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseaseexternal icon (Model: UGA-CEID)
- University of Massachusetts, Amherstexternal icon (Models: UMass-MB and Ensemble)
- University of Michiganexternal icon (Model: UM)
- University of Southern Californiaexternal icon (Model: USC)
- Previous COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths
- FAQ: COVID-19 Data and Surveillance
- CDC COVID Data Tracker
- COVID-19 Mathematical Modeling
- Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.external icon
- Evaluation of Individual and Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts of COVID-19 Mortality in the U.S. | medRxivexternal icon