COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths

Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of September 7, 2020.

Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths

• This week CDC received forecasts of national COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 39 modeling groups. Of the 39 groups, 33 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, four groups forecasted total deaths only, and two forecasted new deaths only.
• This week’s national ensemble forecast indicates an uncertain trend in new COVID-19 deaths reported over the next four weeks and predicts that 3,300 to 8,000 new deaths will likely be reported during the week ending October 3, 2020. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 205,000 to 217,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
• The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week may increase in 1 jurisdiction and decrease in 10 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.

National Forecast

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• The top row of the figure shows the number of new COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from July 4 through September 5 and forecasted new deaths over the next four weeks, through October 3.
• The bottom row of the figure shows the number of total COVID-19 deaths in the United States each week from July 4 through September 5 and the forecasted number of total COVID-19 deaths over the next four weeks, through October 3.
• Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior.

State Forecasts

This week, 41 modeling groups submitted a forecast for new or total deaths in at least one state or territory. Plots of these forecasts and the underlying data can be downloaded below. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale, due to differences in the number of COVID-19 deaths between states.

Download state forecasts pdf icon[29 pages]¹

Download forecast data excel icon[1 sheet]

Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecasting Hubexternal icon.

Forecast Assumptions

The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Information about individual models is available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon. The list below includes all models that submitted a national- or state-level forecast.

Forecasts fall into one of two categories:

• These modeling groups make assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future:
  • Columbia Universityexternal icon (Model: Columbia)
  • Google and Harvard School of Public Healthexternal icon (Model: Google-HSPH)
  • Georgia Institute of Technology, Center for Health and Humanitarian Systemsexternal icon (Model: GT-CHHS)
  • Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluationexternal icon (Model: IHME)
  • John Burantexternal icon (Model: JCB)
  • Johns Hopkins University, Infectious Disease Dynamics Labexternal icon (Model: JHU-IDD)
  • Notre Dame Universityexternal icon (Model: NotreDame-FRED)
  • Predictive Science Inc.external icon (Model: PSI)
  • University of California, Los Angelesexternal icon (Model: UCLA)
  • Youyang Gu (COVID-Projections)external icon (Model: YYG)

• These modeling groups assume that existing social distancing measures will continue through the projected four-week time period:
  • Carnegie Mellon Delphi Groupexternal icon (Model: CMU)
  • Columbia University and University of North Carolinaexternal icon (Model: Columbia-UNC)
  • Discrete Dynamical Systemsexternal icon (Model: DDS)
  • Georgia Institute of Technology, College of Computingexternal icon (Model: GT-DeepCOVID)
  • Institute for Business Forecastingexternal icon (Model: IBF)
  • Iowa State Universityexternal icon (Model: ISU)
  • IQVIA Analytics Center of Excellenceexternal icon (Model: IQVIA)
  • Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Labexternal icon (Model: JHU-APL)
  • Karlen Working Groupexternal icon (Model: Karlen)
  • LockNQuayexternal icon (Model: LNQ)
  • London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicineexternal icon (Model: LSHTM)
  • London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicineexternal icon (Model: LSHTM)
  • Los Alamos National Laboratoryexternal icon (Model: LANL)
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology, COVID-19 Policy Allianceexternal icon (Model: MIT-CovAlliance)
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Laboratory for Computational Physiologyexternal icon (Model: MIT-LRC)
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Operations Research Centerexternal icon (Model: MIT-ORC)
  • Northeastern University, Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systemsexternal icon (Model: MOBS)
  • Notre Dame Universityexternal icon (Model: NotreDame-Mobility)
  • Oliver Wymanexternal icon (Model: Oliver Wyman)
  • Qi-Jun Hongexternal icon (Model: QJHong)
  • Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and University of Washingtonexternal icon (Model: RPI-UW)
  • Robert Walravenexternal icon (Model: ESG)
  • Steve Horstmanexternal icon (Model: STH)
  • Steve McConnellexternal icon (Model: CovidComplete)
  • US Army Engineer Research and Development Centertxt iconexternal icon (Model: ERDC)
  • University of Arizonaexternal icon (Model: UA)
  • University of California, Mercedexternal icon (Model: UCM)
  • University of California, San Diego and Northeastern Universityexternal icon (Model: UCSD-NEU)
  • University of Geneva/Swiss Data Science Center (one-week ahead forecasts only)external icon (Model: Geneva)
  • University of Georgia, Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseaseexternal icon (Model: UGA-CEID)
  • University of Massachusetts, Amherstexternal icon (Models: UMass-MB and Ensemble)
  • University of Michiganexternal icon (Model: UM)
  • University of Southern Californiaexternal icon (Model: USC)
  • Walmart Labs Data Science Teamtxt iconexternal icon (Model: Walmart)

¹ The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.