COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths

Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of August 24, 2020.

Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths

• This week CDC received forecasts of national COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 37 modeling groups. Of the 37 groups, 34 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths and three provided forecasts for total deaths only.
• This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that 4,000 to 8,300 new COVID-19 deaths will be reported during the week ending September 19 and that 196,000 to 207,000 total COVID-19 deaths will be reported by that date.
• State- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that the number of reported new deaths per week may decrease in 18 jurisdictions. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other jurisdictions.

National Forecast

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• The top row of the figure shows the number of new COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from June 20 through August 22 and forecasted new deaths over the next four weeks, through September 19.
• The bottom row of the figure shows the number of total COVID-19 deaths in the United States each week from June 20 through August 22 and the forecasted number of total COVID-19 deaths over the next four weeks, through September 19.
• Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior.

State Forecasts

This week, 37 modeling groups submitted a forecast for new or total deaths in a state or territory. Plots of these forecasts and the underlying data can be downloaded below. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale, due to differences in the number of COVID-19 deaths between states.

Download state forecasts pdf icon[29 pages]¹

Download forecast data excel icon[1 sheet]

Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecasting Hubexternal icon.

Forecast Assumptions

The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Information about individual models is available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon. The list below includes all models that submitted a national- or state-level forecast.

Forecasts fall into one of two categories:

• These modeling groups make assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future:
  • Columbia Universityexternal icon (Model: Columbia)
  • Google and Harvard School of Public Healthexternal icon (Model: Google-HSPH)
  • Georgia Institute of Technology, Center for Health and Humanitarian Systemsexternal icon (Model: GT-CHHS)
  • John Burantexternal icon (Model: JCB)
  • Johns Hopkins University, Infectious Disease Dynamics Labexternal icon (Model: JHU)
  • Notre Dame Universityexternal icon (Model: NotreDame-FRED)
  • Predictive Science Inc.external icon (Model: PSI)
  • University of California, Los Angelesexternal icon (Model: UCLA)
  • Youyang Gu (COVID-Projections)external icon (Model: YYG)

• These modeling groups assume that existing social distancing measures will continue through the projected four-week time period:
  • Auquan Data Scienceexternal icon (Model: Auquan)
  • Carnegie Mellon Universityexternal icon (Model: CMU)
  • Columbia University and University of North Carolinaexternal icon (Model: Columbia-UNC)
  • Covid-19 Simulator Consortiumexternal icon (Model: Covid19Sim)
  • Discrete Dynamical Systemsexternal icon (Model: DDS)
  • Georgia Institute of Technology, College of Computingexternal icon (Model: GT-DeepCOVID)
  • Iowa State Universityexternal icon (Model: ISU)
  • Karlen Working Groupexternal icon (Model: Karlen)
  • LockNQuayexternal icon (Model: LNQ)
  • London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicineexternal icon (Model: LSHTM)
  • London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicineexternal icon (Model: LSHTM)
  • Los Alamos National Laboratoryexternal icon (Model: LANL)
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Operations Research Centerexternal icon (Model: MIT-ORC)
  • Northeastern University, Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systemsexternal icon (Model: MOBS)
  • Notre Dame Universityexternal icon (Model: NotreDame-Mobility)
  • Oliver Wymanexternal icon (Model: Oliver Wyman)
  • Qi-Jun Hongexternal icon (Model: QJHong)
  • Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and University of Washingtonexternal icon (Model: RPI-UW)
  • Robert Walravenexternal icon (Model: ESG)
  • Steve Horstmanexternal icon (Model: STH)
  • Steve McConnellexternal icon (Model: CovidComplete)
  • Texas Tech Universityexternal icon (Model: TTU)
  • US Army Engineer Research and Development Centertxt iconexternal icon (Model: ERDC)
  • University of Arizonaexternal icon (Model: UA)
  • University of California, Mercedexternal icon (Model: UCM)
  • University of Geneva/Swiss Data Science Center (one-week ahead forecasts only)external icon (Model: Geneva)
  • University of Georgia, Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseaseexternal icon (Model: UGA-CEID)
  • University of Massachusetts, Amherstexternal icon (Models: UMass-MB and Ensemble)
  • University of Michiganexternal icon (Model: UM)
  • University of Southern Californiaexternal icon (Model: USC)
  • University of Texas, Austinexternal icon (Model: UT)
  • Walmart Labs Data Science Teamtxt iconexternal icon (Model: Walmart)

¹ The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.