COVID-19 Forecasts: Hospitalizations

COVID-19 Forecasts: Hospitalizations

Interpretation of Forecasts of New Hospitalizations

  • This week, three national forecasts predict a likely increase in the number of new hospitalizations per day over the next four weeks, two forecasts predict a likely decline, and four forecasts are uncertain about the trend or predict stable numbers. For October 26, the forecasts estimate 1,800 to 5,200 new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day.
  • State-level forecasts also show a high degree of variability, which results from multiple factors.  Hospitalization forecasts use different sources of data for COVID-19 cases or deaths, with different limitations, and make different assumptions about social distancing.

National Forecasts

Chart showing the nine national forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day for the next four weeks in the United States.
  • The nine national forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day for the next four weeks in the United States.
  • The forecasts make different assumptions about hospitalization rates and levels of social distancing and other interventions and use different methods to estimate the number of new hospitalizations.

State Forecasts

Eleven state-level models predicting the number of new hospitalizations were submitted this week. These forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day for the next four weeks in each state. Each state forecast uses a different scale, due to differences in the number of new COVID-19 cases occurring per day in each state.

Download state forecasts pdf icon[PDF – 1 MB] 1

Download forecast data excel icon[XLS – 2 MB]

Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecasting Hubexternal icon.

Forecast Assumptions

These forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures and use different methods and data sets to estimate the number of new hospitalizations. Information about individual models is available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon.

Social distancing is incorporated into the forecasts in two different ways:

The rate of new hospitalizations is estimated using one of three approaches:

1 The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.