COVID-19 Forecasts: Hospitalizations

COVID-19 Forecasts: Hospitalizations

Interpretation of Forecasts of New Hospitalizations

  • This week CDC received forecasts of daily, new reported COVID-19 hospitalizations over the next 4 weeks from 10 modeling groups.
  • Four national forecasts predict a likely increase in the number of new hospitalizations per day over the next four weeks, two forecasts predict a likely decrease, and one forecast is uncertain about the trend or predict stable numbers. For December 14, the forecasts estimate 4,600 to 21,000 new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day.
  • State-level forecasts also show a high degree of variability, which results from multiple factors.  Hospitalization forecasts use different sources of data for COVID-19 cases or deaths, with different limitations, and make different assumptions about social distancing.

National Forecasts

National Forecast New Hospitalizations Chart
  • The national forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day for the next four weeks in the United States.
  • The forecasts make different assumptions about hospitalization rates and levels of social distancing and other interventions and use different methods to estimate the number of new hospitalizations.

Download national forecast data excel icon[CSV – 1 sheet]

State Forecasts

State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day for the next four weeks by state. Each state uses a different scale, due to differences in the number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day in each state.

Download state forecasts pdf icon[PDF – 8 pages] 1

Download all forecast data excel icon[CSV – 1 sheet]

Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hubexternal icon.

Forecast Assumptions

These forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures and use different methods and data sets to estimate the number of new hospitalizations. Information about individual models is available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon.

Social distancing is incorporated into the forecasts in two different ways:

The rate of new hospitalizations is estimated using one of three approaches:

1 The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.