COVID-19 Forecasts: Cases

COVID-19 Forecasts: Cases

Reported and forecasted new and total COVID-19 deaths as of April 12, 2021.

Interpretation of Forecasts of New Cases

  • This week, ensemble forecasts of new reported COVID-19 cases over the next 4 weeks included forecasts from 28 modeling groups, each of which contributed a forecast for at least one jurisdiction.
  • This week’s national ensemble predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 cases will remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next 4 weeks, with 264,000 to 850,000 new cases likely reported in the week ending May 8, 2021.
  • The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of new reported cases per week will likely increase in 1 jurisdiction, which is indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported cases are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.

National Forecasts

  • The figure shows the number of new COVID-19 cases reported in the United States each week from February 6 through April 10 and forecasted new cases over the next 4 weeks, through May 8.
  • Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details on the assumptions and methods used to produce the forecasts.

Download national forecast data excel icon[XLS – 23 KB]

State & County Forecasts

State-level and county-level forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 cases for the next 4 weeks by jurisdiction. Each forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of COVID-19 cases between jurisdictions. To aid in comparisons between jurisdictions, the ensemble plot for each location has a second axis (in grey) that shows the expected number of cases per 100,000 people. Only forecasts meeting a set of ensemble inclusion criteria are shown; further details are available here: icon. Plots of the state-level and county-level ensemble forecasts and the underlying data can be downloaded below.

Download state forecasts pdf icon[PDF – 11 MB]

Download all forecast data excel icon[CSV – 15 MB]

Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hubexternal icon.

Forecast Inclusion and Assumptions

The teams with forecasts included in the ensembles are displayed below. Forecasts are included when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements, further described here: icon.

The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Additional individual model details are available here: icon

Intervention assumptions fall into multiple categories:

1 The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state specific prediction intervals.