COVID-19 Forecasts: Cases

COVID-19 Forecasts: Cases

Interpretation of Forecasts of New Cases

  • This week, CDC received forecasts of new reported COVID-19 cases over the next 4 weeks from 33 modeling groups that were included in the ensemble forecasts.
  • This week’s national ensemble predicts that 1,300,000 to 2,400,000 new cases will likely be reported in the week ending February 6, 2021.
  • The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that trends in numbers of future reported cases are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in all jurisdictions.

National Forecasts

National Forecast Incident Cases 1-11-21
  • The figure shows the number of new COVID-19 cases reported nationally in the United States each week from October 31, 2020 to January 9, 2021 and forecasted new cases over the next 4 weeks, through February 6, 2021.
  • Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details.

Download national forecast data excel icon[XLSX – 2 sheets]

State & County Forecasts

State-level and county-level forecast figures show observed and forecasted new COVID-19 cases in each location. Each forecast uses a different scale due to differences in the numbers of COVID-19 cases occurring in each jurisdiction. To aid in comparisons between jurisdictions, the ensemble plot for each location has a second axis (in grey) that shows the expected number of cases per 100,000 people.

Download forecasts for states and territories and for counties pdf icon[12 MB, 533 pages] 1

Download all forecast data excel icon[CSV – 1 sheet]

Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hubexternal icon.

Forecast Inclusion and Assumptions

The forecasts included in the ensembles are displayed below. Forecasts are included when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements, further described here: icon.

The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Additional individual model details are available here: icon.

Intervention assumptions fall into one of three categories:

1 The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state specific prediction intervals.