COVID-19 Forecasts: Cases
Interpretation of Forecasts of New Cases
- This week, CDC received forecasts of new reported COVID-19 cases over the next 4 weeks from 33 modeling groups that were included in the ensemble forecasts.
- This week’s national ensemble predicts that 1,300,000 to 2,400,000 new cases will likely be reported in the week ending February 6, 2021.
- The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that trends in numbers of future reported cases are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in all jurisdictions.
- The figure shows the number of new COVID-19 cases reported nationally in the United States each week from October 31, 2020 to January 9, 2021 and forecasted new cases over the next 4 weeks, through February 6, 2021.
- Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details.
State & County Forecasts
State-level and county-level forecast figures show observed and forecasted new COVID-19 cases in each location. Each forecast uses a different scale due to differences in the numbers of COVID-19 cases occurring in each jurisdiction. To aid in comparisons between jurisdictions, the ensemble plot for each location has a second axis (in grey) that shows the expected number of cases per 100,000 people.
Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hubexternal icon.
Forecast Inclusion and Assumptions
The forecasts included in the ensembles are displayed below. Forecasts are included when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements, further described here: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub#ensemble-modelexternal icon.
The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Additional individual model details are available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon.
Intervention assumptions fall into one of three categories:
- These modeling groups make assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future:
- Columbia Universityexternal icon (Model: Columbia)
- COVID-19 Simulator Consortiumexternal icon (Model: CovidSim)
- Johns Hopkins University, Infectious Disease Dynamics Labexternal icon (Model: JHU-IDD)
- University of California, Los Angelesexternal icon (Model: UCLA)
- These groups assume that existing social distancing measures will continue through the projected 4-week time period:
- Bob Paganoexternal icon (Model: BPagano)
- Carnegie Mellon Delphi Groupexternal icon (Model: CMU)
- Columbia University and University of North Carolinaexternal icon (Model: Columbia-UNC)
- Discrete Dynamical Systemsexternal icon (Model: DDS)
- Facebook AI Research (Model: Facebook)
- IEMexternal icon (Model: IEM)
- Iowa State Universityexternal icon (Model: ISU)
- Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Labexternal icon (model: JHU-APL)
- Johns Hopkins University, Center for Systems Science and Engineeringexternal icon (Model: JHU-CSSE)
- Johns Hopkins University, University of North Carolina, and Googleexternal icon (Model: JHU-UNC-Google)
- Karlen Working Groupexternal icon (Model: Karlen)
- LockNQuayexternal icon (Model: LNQ)
- Los Alamos National Laboratoryexternal icon (Model: LANL)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Operations Research Centerexternal icon (Model: MIT-ORC)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, COVID-19 Policy Allianceexternal icon (Model: MIT-CovAlliance)
- Microsoft AIexternal icon (Model: Microsoft)
- OneQuietNightexternal icon (Model: OneQuietNight)
- Pandemic Centralexternal icon (Model: PandemicCentral)
- Qi-Jun Hongexternal icon (Model: QJHong)
- Robert Walravenexternal icon (Model: ESG)
- Signature Scienceexternal icon (Model: SignatureScience)
- State University of New York, Upstate Medical Universityexternal icon (Model: SUNY)
- University of California, Santa Barbaraexternal icon (Model: UCSB)
- University of Central Floridaexternal icon (Model: UCF)
- University of Georgia Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases Forecasting Working Groupexternal icon (Model: UGA-CEID)
- University of Massachusetts, Amherstexternal icon (Model: UMass)
- University of Michiganexternal icon (Model: UM)
- University of Southern Californiaexternal icon (Model: USC)
- The University of Virginiaexternal icon (Model: UVA) model makes both assumptions, combining different models.
1 The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state specific prediction intervals.