COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths

COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths
Updated Sept. 24, 2020

Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of September 21, 2020.

Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths

  • This week CDC received forecasts of national COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 41 modeling groups. Of the 41 groups, 36 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, three groups forecasted total deaths only, and two forecasted new deaths only.
  • This week’s national ensemble forecast indicates an uncertain trend in new COVID-19 deaths reported over the next four weeks and predicts that 3,400 to 7,400 new deaths will likely be reported during the week ending October 17, 2020. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 214,000 to 226,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
  • The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week may decrease in 5 jurisdictions and increase in one jurisdiction, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.

National Forecast

  • The top row of the figure shows the number of new COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from July 18 through September 19 and forecasted new deaths over the next four weeks, through October 17.
  • The bottom row of the figure shows the number of total COVID-19 deaths in the United States each week from July 18 through September 19 and the forecasted number of total COVID-19 deaths over the next four weeks, through October 17.
  • Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior.

State Forecasts

This week, 42 modeling groups submitted a forecast for new or total deaths in at least one state or territory. Plots of these forecasts, each state-level ensemble forecast and the underlying data can be downloaded below. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale, due to differences in the number of COVID-19 deaths between states.

Download state forecasts pdf icon[29 pages]1

Download forecast data excel icon[1 sheet]

Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecasting Hubexternal icon.

 

Forecasts on COVID data tracker

Ensemble Forecast

An “ensemble” forecast combines each of the independently developed forecasts into one aggregate forecast to improve prediction over the next 4 weeks.  Both national and state-level ensemble forecasts are developed for predicting new and total COVID-19 deaths reported each week for the next 4 weeks.  Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.external icon describes its accuracy in short-term predictions and its usefulness as a real-time tool to help guide policy and planning.

Forecast Assumptions

The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Information about individual models is available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon. The list below includes all models that submitted a national- or state-level forecast.

Forecasts fall into one of two categories:

1 The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.