COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths

COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths
Updated Jan. 20, 2021

Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of January 18, 2021.

Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths

  • This week, CDC received forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 37 modeling groups that were included in the ensemble forecasts. Of the 37 groups, 32 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, two groups forecasted total deaths only, and three forecasted new deaths only.
  • This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that 17,000 to 29,300 new deaths will likely be reported in the week ending February 13, 2021. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 465,000 to 508,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
  • The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely increase in 3 jurisdictions and decrease in 3 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.

National Forecast

  • The top row of the figure shows the number of new COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from November 14 through January 16 and forecasted new deaths over the next 4 weeks, through February 13.
  • The bottom row of the figure shows the number of total COVID-19 deaths in the United States each week from November 14 through January 16 and the forecasted number of total COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks, through February 13.
  • Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior.

Download national forecast data excel icon[XLS – 24 KB]

State Forecasts

Plots of individual state forecasts, each state-level ensemble forecast, and the underlying data can be downloaded below. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale, due to differences in the number of COVID-19 deaths between states.

Download state forecasts pdf icon[2 MB, 29 pages] 1

Download forecast data excel icon[CSV – 1 MB]

Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hubexternal icon.

 

Forecasts on COVID data tracker

Ensemble Forecast

An “ensemble” forecast combines each of the independently developed forecasts into one aggregate forecast to improve prediction over the next 4 weeks. Both national- and state-level ensemble forecasts are developed for predicting new and total COVID-19 deaths reported each week for the next 4 weeks. Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.external icon describes its accuracy in short-term predictions and its usefulness as a real-time tool to help guide policy and planning.

Forecast Inclusion and Assumptions

The forecast included in the ensembles are displayed below. Forecasts are included when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements, further described here: https://github.com/reichlab/covid-19-forecast-hub#ensemble-modelexternal icon.

The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Information about individual models is available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon. The list below includes all models that submitted a national- or state-level forecast.

Forecasts fall into one of two categories:

1 The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.