Published Models and Tools

CDC’s Health Economics and Modeling Unit (HEMU) has developed and published multiple tools to give public health decision makers actionable data during routine public health work and emergencies. The tools are available for download, either on CDC’s website or as supplemental materials to publications.

Biological Threat Planning and Response Tools
  • Maxi-Vac: Informs planning for large-scale smallpox vaccination clinics with maximum patient flow-through. Users can select the number of staff available to operate a clinic and then Maxi-Vac will allocate staff among the pre-designated required activities.
  • Anthrax Assist: Projects hospitalizations and casualties from a newly detected inhalation anthrax event and evaluates the impact of a population-wide campaign to provide antibiotic prophylaxis. Tool available for download in Technical Appendix 2.
  • Beds for Ebola Disease (BED): Estimates the number of specialized beds for treating Ebola patients in the United States as a result of an outbreak abroad. BED is available for download in Technical Appendix 2.
  • EbolaResponse: Estimates the future number of Ebola cases. Ebola Response is available for download in CDC Stacks.
  • MedCon:Pre-Event: Estimates the baseline medical care requirements (per 100,000 unit of population) following a disaster due to terrorism or natural phenomenon. The tool helps to estimate the number of persons that would require medical care following a disaster for a displaced population with pre-existing medical conditions.
Pandemic Planning and Response

Increased Demand for Staff, Services, and Supplies

  • COVID-19 Surge: Enables hospital administrators and public health officials to estimate the surge in demand for hospital-based services during the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • COVIDTracer and COVIDTracer Advanced: Allows users to estimate the resources needed for and model the impact of contact tracing activities in terms of the numbers of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted. Additionally, these tools provide users with the ability to estimate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions by age group and the direct medical costs saved by public health COVID-19 activities; they allow the user to account for the impacts of vaccination and waning of naturally acquired and vaccine-induced immunity.
  • COVID-Vac: A tool for planning COVID-19 vaccination clinics and mass vaccination sites: Helps managers of large-scale COVID-19 vaccination clinics to set up clinics and maximize the triaging of patients.
  • FluAid 2.0:  Assists state and local level planners to prepare for the next influenza pandemic. FluAid provides estimates of the potential impact of deaths, hospitalizations, and outpatient visits due to the pandemic influenza specific to locality. FluAid 2.0 does not describe when or how people will become ill, nor how a pandemic may spread through a society over time.
  • FluSurge 2.0: Helps hospital administrators and public health officials estimate the surge in demand for hospital-based services during the next influenza pandemic. FluSurge estimates the number of hospitalizations and deaths from an influenza pandemic (whose length and virulence are determined by the user) and compares the number of persons hospitalized, the number of persons requiring ICU care, and the number of persons requiring ventilator support during a pandemic with existing hospital capacity.
  • FluLabSurge 1.0: Assists laboratory directors with forecasting demand for specimen testing during an influenza pandemic and developing response plans.
  • Demand for Respirators and Surgical Masks During Influenza Pandemic in the United States: Informs planning for an influenza pandemic by estimating U.S. demand for N95 filtering respirators (respirators) by healthcare and emergency services personnel and the need for surgical masks by pandemic patients seeking care.
  • Influenza AH7N9 Models in Response to a Potential Public Health Emergency: Presents five models assessing the potential demand for mechanical ventilators, respirators and surgical masks, influenza anti-viral drugs, and the potential impacts of a vaccination program and school closures to aid preparation for a potential influenza pandemic caused by the AH7N9 influenza strain. Spreadsheet tools are available for download in Supplementary data section of papers.

Estimating Flu-related Work and School Impacts

  • Community Flu: Simulates the spread of influenza through a model community and the impact of a variety of potential interventions (e.g., vaccinations, school closings, wearing of face masks, patient and household isolation/self-quarantine). CommunityFlu can calculatethe cost of influenza and associated interventions, in terms of workdays lost.
  • FluWork Loss 1.0: Estimates the potential number of days lost from work due to an influenza pandemic. Users can change almost any input value, such as the number of workdays assumed lost when a worker becomes ill or the number of workdays lost due to a worker staying home to care for a family member. Users can also change the length and virulence of the pandemic so that a range of possible impacts can be estimated. FluWorkLoss also provides graphic illustrations of the workdays lost by week and percentage of total workdays lost to influenza-related illnesses.
  • Influenza School Closure:  Examines the effect caused by school closures using different contact matrices. Model available for download in Supplemental data.

Vaccination Planning

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Vaccination Planning and Evaluation
  • RabiesEcon: Assists planning large-scale dog rabies vaccination programs. The model can assess health and economic impacts and estimate the cost-effectiveness of various mass dog vaccination strategies.
Tools to Assess Public Health Surveillance and Interventions
  • Cost effectiveness of age-based targeted West Nile virus vaccine: Estimates costs and health outcomes of vaccination with West Nile virus vaccine compared to no vaccination among seven cohorts, spaced at 10-year intervals from ages 10 to 70 years, each followed until 90 years old.
  • Economic evaluation of preventive malaria treatment to contacts of Ebola patients in the context of the West Africa 2014 Ebola response: Analyzes the cost (in terms of treatment administration and averted hospitalization costs) and benefits (in terms of averted Ebola Treatment Unit admissions) of providing presumptive antimalarial treatment to contacts of suspected Ebola patients from a responder perspective. Tool available for download in Supplementary Materials.
  • Shigellosis Tool: Estimates the number of days a child with shigellosis will be excluded from childcare, and the likelihood the child will be readmitted while infectious. Tool available under Additional Files, Appendix B.
  • Public Health Laboratory Impact Tool: Estimates a public health laboratory’s contribution to and impact on Salmonella diagnostic testing.
  • SurvCost: Aids public health officials with estimating the cost of Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) systems at different jurisdictions levels and to better understand the resources required to operate IDSR systems. The tool estimates the costs of resources on personnel, office operating items, transportation, laboratory materials and supplies, treatment and programmatic response items, media or public awareness campaigns, and capital items. SurvCost may be used to manage other disease surveillance systems for estimating the surveillance costs.