Purpose
CFA uses data, modeling, and analytics to assess public health threats. We use a range of methods and approaches to support public health decision-making.
Current Epidemic Trends
CFA and NCIRD estimate epidemic trends for respiratory viruses based on the time-varying reproductive number, Rt (a measure of community disease transmission). This measure helps quickly assess whether infections are increasing or decreasing, which can help public health practitioners prepare and respond.
We estimate epidemic trends at the national, state, and local level. Local estimates are reported by health service area (HSA) and can support public health decision-making, resource planning, and communication.
- For a real-time look at the current estimates, see our Current Epidemic Trend (Based on Rt)
- For more information on our methods for estimating epidemic growth trends, see our Behind the Model.
- For a deeper dive about interpreting Rt, visit our Modeling Handbook chapter on Rt.
Ensemble Forecasts
CFA now coordinates the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (CovidHub) and the RSV Forecast Hub (RSVHub). Both hubs solicit short-term forecasts of emergency department (ED) visits from NSSP healthcare data and COVID-19 hospital admissions using NHSN respiratory data from teams across the United States. These forecasts are combined into ensemble forecasts that predict the percentage of ED visits and number of hospital admissions due to COVID-19 or RSV over the coming weeks.
For weekly reports and short-term forecasts of ED visits and hospital admissions due to COVID-19 or RSV provided at the national and state levels, see COVID-19 Ensemble Forecasts or RSV Ensemble Forecasts.
Scenario Modeling
CFA has developed scenario modeling capability that allows decision-makers to examine a range of possible outcomes under different assumptions about the future, providing insights for addressing specific policy questions and for general preparedness and planning, as in our Respiratory Disease Season Outlooks. CFA's Behind the Model explainer series unpacks how CFA uses scenario modeling in the Outlooks.
Technical Briefs
A technical brief is a succinct report covering modeling and analytic results that answer a public health decision-maker question of interest. CFA recently released two technical briefs that explore the potential spread of clade I monkeypox in the United States, given the ongoing clade I monkeypox outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo:
- This study explores the impact of household and other non-sexual contact on the potential spread of clade I monkeypox in the United States.
- This study explores the impact of population-level immunity and transmissibility on sexual transmission among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM).
Modeling Handbook
The CFA Modeling Handbook is a collection of educational resources designed for public health decision-makers and epidemiologists who are interested in using modeling for decision-making or interpreting the output of mathematical models without having to read a textbook. This handbook is designed to help those who may not have a background in modeling understand and evaluate the models used at CFA.