About the Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics

What to know

  • The Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics supports a need for disease forecasting.
  • CFA works with partners to improve response to public health emergencies using analytics and disease models.
The mission for the Center of Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics is to harness cutting-edge analytics to improve response to public health emergencies.

Our mission

CFA empowers people to save lives and protect communities from health threats by harnessing cutting-edge analytics to improve response to public health emergencies. The center will advance forecasting and outbreak analytics through predicting, informing, and innovating.

Graphic of CFA vision and mission in blue, and goals in orange text.
CFA's mission and vision statements, and four supporting goals.


CFA works with private industry partners, academia, local public health organizations, and other agencies in the federal government to create forecasting tools and other resources to respond to public health emergencies.

CFA is prioritizing collaboration across various sectors because we know there are unique capabilities and expertise that may prove applicable in public health. In April 2022, CFA organized its inaugural Industry Day, where multiple private companies exchanged ideas on forecasting and outbreak analytics. In 2023, CFA appointed a chief technology officer to oversee our technology infrastructure, including private sector technologies. This focus on cross-sector collaboration is what makes CFA unique and will help us achieve our mission and goals.


CFA supports innovation to improve the science of disease outbreak analytics and modeling by:

  • Producing data-driven models and forecasts to predict the course of disease outbreaks.
  • Informing decision-makers of potential consequences of outbreaks and public health responses.
  • Ensuring effective decision-making, using real-time data, advanced scientific analytics and modeling.

CFA staff work with partners in public, private, and academic sectors to advance our research and achieve our goals.


Deliver actionable analysis and response-ready modeling tools.

  • Build an array of models and tools for outbreak analytics.
  • Collaborate with public health programs to apply CFA's models and community tools.
  • Test, evaluate, and improve CFA's modeling and data sources.
  • Provide analysis for urgent response needs.


Generate practical decision support products.

  • Share technical reports with actionable insights for decision-makers.
  • Translate and circulate CFA-developed analytics.
  • Establish and maintain collaborations to improve CFA techniques.


Drive technological and analytic innovation.

  • Transform forecasting, analytics, and communication.
  • Advance analytic technology architectures for CFA and our partners.
  • Establish technical specifications to support the flow of information.


Build a world-class forecasting and outbreak analytics organization.

  • Attract and retain an ambitious and diverse workforce.
  • Drive CFA talent growth through robust career development initiatives.
  • Foster a culture of collaboration, innovation, and transparency.
  • Plan and execute for sustained success.

Why it matters

During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, CFA's predictions and guidance played a crucial role in the United States' response. Our team of data scientists pivoted to anticipate the timing and influence of the Omicron variant on cases and hospitalizations in the U.S.

This notice gave leaders weeks to determine the timing and magnitude of the surge, allowing for key planning activities. In collaboration with the office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, CFA contributed data-derived information to assist in developing school, travel, and treatment policies.

Our work

In addition to COVID-19, CFA supports the development of new tools and techniques to forecast emerging disease threats such as Mpox, Polio, and Acute Pediatric Hepatitis. Since 2022, CFA has awarded over $122 million in funding to academic, private and public institutions to advance modeling and forecasting strategies. In 2023, CFA launched Insight Net, the first national network for disease outbreak modeling and analytics, which includes more than 100 partners.