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The goal of the Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics (CFA) is to enable timely, effective decision-making to improve outbreak response using data, modeling, and analytics.

To do so, CFA produces models and forecasts to characterize the state of an outbreak and its course, inform public health decision makers on potential consequences of deploying control measures, and support innovation to continuously improve the science of outbreak analytics and modeling.

Learn more about our leaders and who we are.

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History of CFA
Timeline capturing CFA’s preliminary milestones.

 

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Who We Are
Brief biographies of the CFA leadership team.

Early CFA Successes

Mpox Response

Polio Response

  • CFA is working with the polio response to assist in the estimation of the potential risk of paralytic polio in different jurisdictions and facilitating engagement with external academic modelers to support response questions.

COVID-19 Response

  • Although CFA was still in the pre-launch phase of development in winter 2021, the team pivoted quickly to anticipate the timing and impact of the Omicron variant on cases and hospitalizations in the United States. In partnership with Kaiser Permanente Southern California and UC Berkeley, CFA produced the first US estimates of Omicron severity compared to the Delta variant. CFA, in collaboration with teams in academia and experts in the office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, have also contributed analyses related to school test-to-stay polices, travel policies, and vaccine policy.
  • Within days of recognizing that the Omicron variant would cause a surge in the United States, the CFA team alerted federal leaders, state and local public health partners and the public that an impending increase in cases and hospitalizations would be severe enough to disrupt the functioning of critical infrastructure. This activity gave leaders several weeks of advanced notice of the timing and magnitude of the surge, allowing key planning activities.

Acute Pediatric Hepatitis

  • CFA partnered with the pediatric acute hepatitis incident response team to produce a detailed technical report of the ongoing investigation. Learn more.

Developing Methods Tools 

  • CFA has already awarded $21 million in funding to academic institutions to advance modeling and forecasting methodology, with an emphasis on workforce development and health equity. Additional investments will be announced in the coming months.