CFA and NCIRD Modeling and Forecasting of Respiratory Diseases

COVID-19 and Influenza Update

As of April 13, 2024, we estimate that COVID-19 infections are growing or likely growing in 0 states or territories, declining or likely declining in 23 states and territories, and are stable or uncertain in 25 states and territories. (See current epidemic growth status). The national COVID-19 ensemble forecast predicts 220 to 2,400 daily COVID-19 hospital admissions on May 13, 2024.

As of April 13, 2024, we estimate that influenza infections are growing or likely growing in 0 states or territories, declining or likely declining in 35 states and territories, and are stable or uncertain in 9 states and territories (See current epidemic growth status). The FluSight ensemble forecast indicates a likely decrease in the weekly number of influenza hospital admissions nationally through May 4, 2024, compared to the most recent reported number of weekly admissions.

COVID-19 

Hospital admission forecasts, through May 13, 2024, United States.

accepted covid trends chart

Influenza

Hospital admission forecasts, through May 4, 2024, United States

National forecast map

Season Outlook for COVID-19, influenza, and RSV

See the Respiratory Disease Season Outlook webpage to learn more about longer-term scenarios for the season.

Other Recent Work  

Learn more about epidemic growth status and how Rt estimates are calculated.

Resources 

Learn more about how to prepare for respiratory diseases.

Learn more about the CDC’s Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics.