FluSurge is a spreadsheet-based model which provides hospital administrators and public health officials estimates of the surge in demand for hospital-based services during the next influenza pandemic. FluSurge estimates the number of hospitalizations and deaths of an influenza pandemic (whose length and virulence are determined by the user) and compares the number of persons hospitalized, the number of persons requiring ICU care, and the number of persons requiring ventilator support during a pandemic with existing hospital capacity.
FluSurge 2.0 is a new version of FluSurge 1.0, which was originally released in July, 2004. With FluSurge 2.0, users can now change variables that impact estimates of the number and duration of influenza-related hospitalizations. Variables that can be altered by the user include the assumed average length of hospital stay for an influenza-related illness, and the percentage of influenza-related hospital admits that will require a bed in an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). The user can also change the total number of persons requiring hospitalization.
FluSurge and FluAid Questions and Answers
Can FluSurge and FluAid be used to estimate impact on a pediatric facility?
You can use FluSurge to consider plans for pediatric facilities. You may wish to alter the rates of health outcomes. In FluSurge and FluAid, the rates of health outcomes for children are averaged over the entire 0-18 years of age. Please see instructions on how to use FluAid and FluSurge to estimate the impact of next pandemic by using 1968 and 1918 scenarios [467 KB, 42 pages]. The instructions also explain how to alter the rate of outcomes in FluSurge and FluAid.
Can FluSurge and FluAid be used to accurately estimate the impact of H5N1?
Estimates from FluSurge are really illustrations: for a given scenario; therefore, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. FluSurge should be used as a starting point for planning. Given the large number of unknowns for a possible pandemic, any plan has to be flexible.
As of mid May 2006, there is not a human-adapted strain of H5N1. The reported human cases of H5N1 have not been associated with sustained human-to-human transmission, and most of the cases appear to be the result of direct infection from bird to human. Therefore, we do not have any data regarding any aspect related to the potential impact of such a strain in humans. However, you can follow the instructions on how to alter FluSurge and FluAid outputs to reflect different rates of health outcomes [1.2 MB, 42 pages].
- Windows* operating system (MS Windows 2000 or newer)
- Microsoft Excel (MS Office 2000 or newer)
- 486 Pentium processor and at least 128MB RAM
- 2 MB of hard drive storage space
* MS Windows and Office is a copyrighted product produced by Microsoft Corporation, WA. Use of trade names and commercial sources is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
Instructions for Downloading
Before loading and starting FluSurge, you must change Excel's security level. You must first do the following steps:
- Open a blank Excel spreadsheet.
- Click Tools and then click Macro, choose Security.
- Set Security Level to Medium.
- Click OK.
- Double-click and open FluSurge file.
- When asked to Disable Macros or Enable Macros, click Enable Macros.
Downloading the Files
*We recommend downloading and saving the FluSurge Spreadsheet to your computer, then open the spreadsheet from your computer. This will allow the spreadsheet to open in Excel instead of your web browser.