Volume 26, Number 12—December 2020
Research
Game Animal Density, Climate, and Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Finland, 2007–2017
Timothée Dub
, Jukka Ollgren, Sari Huusko, Ruut Uusitalo, Mika Siljander, Olli Vapalahti, and Jussi Sane
, Jukka Ollgren, Sari Huusko, Ruut Uusitalo, Mika Siljander, Olli Vapalahti, and Jussi Sane
Table 2
Single-variable modeling of weather parameters’ influence on tick-borne encephalitis incidence, Finland, 2007–2017
| Weather parameters† | Coefficient (95% CI of coefficient) | IR (95% CI) | p value | AIC | BIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly average minimum temperature | –0.069 (–0.145 to 0.08) | 0.93 (0.87–1.01) | 0.08 | 1,263.0 | 1,302.6 |
| Monthly average mean temperature | –0.070 (–0.149 to 0.008) | 0.93 (0.86–1.01) | 0.08 | 1,263.1 | 1,302.6 |
| Monthly average maximum temperature | –0.056 (–0.126 to 0.013) | 0.95 (0.88–1.01) | 0.11 | 1,263.6 | 1,303.1 |
| Monthly average of daily temperature variation | 0.000 (–0.103 to 0.104) | 1.00 (0.90–1.11) | 0.99 | 1,266.1 | 1,305.6 |
| Proportion of days in a month with a mean temperature >5°C | –0.718 (–1.702 to 0.265) | 0.49 (0.18–1.30) | 0.15 | 1,264.1 | 1,303.6 |
| Monthly average of mean temperature surplus‡ | –0.057 (–0.135 to 0.021) | 0.94 (0.87–1.02) | 0.15 | 1,264.0 | 1,303.6 |
*AIC, Akaike information criterion; BIC, Bayesian information criterion; IR, incidence ratio. †Adjusted for trend over time and 12 mo periodicity. ‡Temperature surplus: mean temperature minus 9°C if ≥9°C, otherwise 0.
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