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ORIGINAL RESEARCH

Use of Interrupted Time-Series Method to Evaluate the Impact of Cigarette Excise Tax Increases in Pennsylvania, 2000–2009

Quarterly smoking prevalence increased from 31.95% in 1998 Q1 to 38.86% in 2003 Q4 before the second tax increase. Quarterly smoking prevalence dropped to 26.65% after the second tax increase and continued to decrease to 22% in 2010 Q4.

Year/QuarterAdults Aged 18–39
1998 Q131.95
1998 Q228.14
1998 Q329.22
1998 Q428.47
1999 Q130.49
1999 Q233.73
1999 Q330.72
1999 Q429.29
2000 Q131.68
2000 Q229.15
2000 Q332.43
2000 Q432.86
2001 Q130.45
2001 Q228.47
2001 Q329.14
2001 Q432.79
2002 Q128.78
2002 Q233.75
2002 Q329.33
2002 Q432.73
2003 Q134.31
2003 Q231.07
2003 Q331.39
2003 Q438.86
2004 Q126.65
2004 Q232.51
2004 Q328.39
2004 Q428.33
2005 Q131.61
2005 Q229.11
2005 Q332.01
2005 Q427.68
2006 Q122.27
2006 Q229.80
2006 Q329.19
2006 Q428.80
2007 Q129.78
2007 Q226.93
2007 Q323.41
2007 Q426.51
2008 Q128.63
2008 Q225.27
2008 Q326.40
2008 Q428.25
2009 Q124.46
2009 Q226.16
2009 Q328.58
2009 Q423.72
2010 Q122.48
2010 Q220.44
2010 Q323.61
2010 Q422.00


Figure 1a.
Quarterly smoking prevalence for adults aged 18–39 years, Pennsylvania, 1998–2010. Source: 1998–2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey data.

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The age-adjusted AMI hospitalization rate decreased from 74.39/100,000 population in 2000 Q1 to 68.78/100,000 population in 2003 Q4. There was an immediate reduction of 3.22/100,000 population in age-adjusted AMI hospitalization rate level after the 2nd tax increase with no trend change. The age-adjusted AMI rate decreased from 67.14/100,000 population in 2004 Q1 to 49.10/100,000 in 2009 Q4.

Year/QuarterAll
2000 Q174.39
2000 Q270.62
2000 Q368.14
2000 Q477.00
2001 Q172.97
2001 Q270.39
2001 Q364.18
2001 Q471.42
2002 Q171.47
2002 Q267.77
2002 Q365.34
2002 Q469.31
2003 Q168.69
2003 Q266.00
2003 Q362.72
2003 Q468.78
2004 Q167.14
2004 Q260.81
2004 Q358.09
2004 Q461.95
2005 Q164.72
2005 Q257.40
2005 Q351.52
2005 Q456.93
2006 Q156.73
2006 Q254.63
2006 Q352.52
2006 Q455.38
2007 Q153.85
2007 Q252.62
2007 Q348.45
2007 Q451.81
2008 Q154.48
2008Q251.75
2008 Q347.40
2008 Q450.56
2009 Q149.83
2009 Q248.21
2009 Q345.56
2009 Q449.10


Figure 1b.
Quarterly age-adjusted AMI hospitalization rates, Pennsylvania, 2000–2009. Source: 2000–2009 Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council (PHC4) hospital discharge database.

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Quarterly age-specific asthma hospitalization rates for children under age 18 increased from 60.62/100,000 population in 2000 Q1 to 90.61/100,000 population in 2003 Q4; after the second tax increase, the rate dropped to 66.78/100,000 population in 2004 Q1 but rose to 81.01/100,000 population in 2009 Q4.

Year/QuarterUnder 18 y
2000 Q160.62
2000 Q249.96
2000 Q355.10
2000 Q482.03
2001 Q168.37
2001 Q263.23
2001 Q346.24
2001 Q489.25
2002 Q163.02
2002 Q251.42
2002 Q342.97
2002 Q480.89
2003 Q164.70
2003 Q268.60
2003 Q369.37
2003 Q490.61
2004 Q166.78
2004 Q253.35
2004 Q341.04
2004 Q478.33
2005 Q152.65
2005 Q256.83
2005 Q333.85
2005 Q478.83
2006 Q153.74
2006 Q254.52
2006 Q345.51
2006 Q490.00
2007 Q153.39
2007 Q253.81
2007 Q344.87
2007 Q488.38
2008 Q156.91
2008 Q250.50
2008 Q342.89
2008 Q467.46
2009 Q154.45
2009 Q252.21
2009 Q366.99
2009 Q481.01


Figure 1c.
Quarterly age-specific asthma hospitalization rates for children under age 18, Pennsylvania, 2000–2009. Source: 2000–2009 Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council (PHC4) hospital discharge database.

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The male age-adjusted SCD rate decreased from 28.63/100,000 population in 2000 Q1 to 26.11/100,000 population in 2003 Q4. There was a 1.34/100,000 population immediate reduction in the age-adjusted SCD rate level after the 2nd tax increase with no trend change. The female age-adjusted SCD rate decreased from 13.94/100,000 population in 2000 Q1 to 7.79/100,000 in 2009 Q4 with no reduction in level or trend change.

Year/QuarterMaleFemale
2000 Q128.6313.94
2000 Q226.1611.33
2000 Q325.5510.78
2000 Q428.3312.49
2001 Q127.8112.86
2001 Q226.1911.02
2001 Q323.8910.08
2001 Q426.6811.89
2002 Q126.5412.49
2002 Q223.8810.08
2002 Q323.2310.15
2002 Q427.3811.53
2003 Q127.0611.51
2003 Q223.6910.07
2003 Q322.389.34
2003 Q426.1110.38
2004 Q123.7310.70
2004 Q222.599.24
2004 Q319.438.77
2004 Q423.269.71
2005 Q124.5210.69
2005 Q221.239.27
2005 Q320.228.01
2005 Q423.8910.07
2006 Q120.749.03
2006 Q220.588.56
2006 Q320.518.05
2006 Q421.809.00
2007 Q122.628.61
2007 Q219.938.35
2007 Q318.377.47
2007 Q421.368.35
2008 Q122.329.09
2008 Q219.078.67
2008 Q317.487.16
2008 Q419.788.51
2009 Q121.928.71
2009 Q217.937.37
2009 Q317.057.40
2009 Q419.677.79


Figure 1d.
Quarterly age-adjusted sudden cardiac death (SCD) rates by sex, Pennsylvania, 2000–2009. Source: Pennsylvania 2000–2009 Vital Statistics death certificate data.

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