Skip directly to site content Skip directly to page options Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link
Volume 29, Number 7—July 2023
Dispatch

Estimates of Serial Interval and Reproduction Number of Sudan Virus, Uganda, August–November 2022

Valentina Marziano, Giorgio Guzzetta, Ira Longini, and Stefano MerlerComments to Author 
Author affiliations: Bruno Kessler Foundation, Center for Health Emergencies, Trento, Italy (V. Marziano, G. Guzzetta, S. Merler); University of Florida, Colleges of Public Health and Health Professions and Medicine, Gainesville, Florida, USA (I. Longini)

Main Article

Figure 2

Epidemic curves and reproduction number for SUDV outbreaks, Uganda, August–November 2022. A) Number of confirmed and probable cases, by date of symptom onset, in Uganda as obtained from district-level epidemic curves reported previously (2). B) Net reproduction number over time in Uganda, as estimated from the epidemic curve, by date of symptom onset, using the serial interval distributions from the 2000–2001 outbreak (5) (red) and from the 2022 outbreak (6) (blue). Shaded areas represent 95% CIs of estimates. We assumed that the first case of the epidemic curve was imported and that all the others are locally transmitted. SUDV, Sudan virus.

Figure 2. Epidemic curves and reproduction number for SUDV outbreaks, Uganda, August–November 2022. A) Number of confirmed and probable cases, by date of symptom onset, in Uganda as obtained from district-level epidemic curves reported previously (2). B) Net reproduction number over time in Uganda, as estimated from the epidemic curve, by date of symptom onset, using the serial interval distributions from the 2000–2001 outbreak (5) (red) and from the 2022 outbreak (6) (blue). Shaded areas represent 95% CIs of estimates. We assumed that the first case of the epidemic curve was imported and that all the others are locally transmitted. SUDV, Sudan virus.

Main Article

References
  1. World Health Organization–Uganda. Uganda declares Ebola virus disease outbreak. 2022 [cited 2023 Jun 6]. https://www.afro.who.int/countries/uganda/news/uganda-declares-ebola-virus-disease-outbreak
  2. Republic of Uganda Ministry of Health, World Health Organization–Uganda. Ebola virus disease—situation report 42 [cited 2023 Jun 6]. https://www.afro.who.int/sites/default/files/2022-11/Ug_EVD_SitRep%2342.pdf
  3. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Ebola disease outbreak caused by Sudan ebolavirus in Uganda, 2022—9 November 2022 [cited 2023 Jun 6]. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/ebola-risk-sudan-virus-considered-very-low-risk-assessment.pdf
  4. Republic of Uganda Ministry of Health, World Health Organization–Uganda. Ebola virus disease—situation report 93 [cited 2023 Jun 6]. https://www.afro.who.int/sites/default/files/2023-01/Ug_EVD_SitRep%2393.pdf
  5. Francesconi  P, Yoti  Z, Declich  S, Onek  PA, Fabiani  M, Olango  J, et al. Ebola hemorrhagic fever transmission and risk factors of contacts, Uganda. Emerg Infect Dis. 2003;9:1430–7. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  6. Republic of Uganda Ministry of Health. Press statement. Update on the Ebola virus disease outbreak and containment measures. 26 October, 2022 [cited 2023 Jun 6]. https://www.health.go.ug/cause/update-on-the-ebola-virus-disease-outbreak-and-containment-measures
  7. Cori  A, Ferguson  NM, Fraser  C, Cauchemez  S. A new framework and software to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics. Am J Epidemiol. 2013;178:1505–12. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  8. Chowell  G, Hengartner  NW, Castillo-Chavez  C, Fenimore  PW, Hyman  JM. The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda. J Theor Biol. 2004;229:119–26. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  9. Chowell  G, Viboud  C, Simonsen  L, Moghadas  SM. Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics. J R Soc Interface. 2016;13:20160659. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  10. Parag  KV. Improved estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers at low case incidence and between epidemic waves. PLOS Comput Biol. 2021;17:e1009347. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  11. Van Kerkhove  MD, Bento  AI, Mills  HL, Ferguson  NM, Donnelly  CA. A review of epidemiological parameters from Ebola outbreaks to inform early public health decision-making. Sci Data. 2015;2:150019. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  12. World Health Organization. Ebola disease caused by Sudan Ebola virus—Uganda. 2022 [cited 2023 Jun 6]. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2022-DON421

Main Article

Page created: May 19, 2023
Page updated: June 20, 2023
Page reviewed: June 20, 2023
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
file_external