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Volume 29, Number 10—October 2023
Dispatch

Estimate of COVID-19 Deaths, China, December 2022–February 2023

Zhanwei Du, Yuchen Wang, Yuan Bai, Lin Wang, Benjamin John Cowling, and Lauren Ancel MeyersComments to Author 
Author affiliations: World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China (Z. Du, Y. Bai, B.J. Cowling); Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong (Z. Du, Y. Wang, Y. Bai, B.J. Cowling); University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK (Y. Wang); University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA (L.A. Meyers); Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA (L.A. Meyers)

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Figure

Estimated SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence in China during December 16, 2022–January 19, 2023, and resulting COVID-19 mortality rates. A) Estimated cumulative infection and mortality rates (per 1 million population) during December 8, 2022–February 7, 2023, based on test positivity data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention sentinel community surveillance system, reported on January 26, 2023 (5). Gray shading indicates 95% credibility intervals derived from 1,000 stochastic simulations. B) Estimated age-specific COVID-19 mortality rates (deaths/1 million population, log scale), based on simulations that incorporate vaccine timing, coverage, effectiveness, and waning in each age group.

Figure. Estimated SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence in China during December 16, 2022–January 19, 2023, and resulting COVID-19 mortality rates. A) Estimated cumulative infection and mortality rates (per 1 million population) during December 8, 2022–February 7, 2023, based on test positivity data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention sentinel community surveillance system, reported on January 26, 2023 (5). Gray shading indicates 95% credibility intervals derived from 1,000 stochastic simulations. B) Estimated age-specific COVID-19 mortality rates (deaths/1 million population, log scale), based on simulations that incorporate vaccine timing, coverage, effectiveness, and waning in each age group.

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