Skip Navigation Links
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
 CDC Home Search Health Topics A-Z

Preventing Chronic Disease: Public Health Research, Practice and Policy

View Current Issue
Issue Archive
Archivo de números en español








Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal
MMWR


 Home 

Volume 4: No. 3, July 2007

ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Charting Plausible Futures for Diabetes Prevalence in the United States: A Role for System Dynamics Simulation Modeling

Figure 1 graphs the trend of diabetes prevalence between 1980 and 2003, along with Healthy People objectives for 2000 and 2010 as well as simulation results from three experiments discussed in the narrative. The x axis is calibrated for years between 1980 and 2010. The y axis indicates the number of people with diagnosed diabetes per 1000 population. It is labeled in increments of ten. Three prevalence lines are graphed: (1) reported, (2) Healthy People objectives, and (3) simulated scenarios. Figure 1 gives the following data points:

Reported prevalence: 1987, 33.8; 1997, 39.2; 2000, 44.6; in 2003, 48.9 Healthy People objective: 2000, 30.8; 2010, 25.0 Simulated: in 2010, 59.1 under the status quo scenario; 63.2 under meets the Healthy People detection objective 5-4 scenario; 52.3 under the meets Healthy People onset objective 5-2 scenario.

Figure 1. Diagnosed prevalence of diabetes per 1000 total population, United States, 1980–2003 (8), with Healthy People 2000 and Healthy People 2010 objectives (2,3), and simulation model output, 2003–2010 (13).

Return to article

 
Figure 2 is a stock-and-flow diagram describing the incidence, diagnosis, and prevalence of a disease in a population. It includes three mutually exclusive population stocks as well as the related rates of change among them.

The first stock, labeled Population Without Disease, has a single outflow for the rate of People Developing Disease (or initial onset), which in turn, is the only inflow into the stock of Undiagnosed Prevalence. Undiagnosed Prevalence has a single outflow rate for Diagnosed Onset, leading to the final stock of Diagnosed Prevalence.

There are two outflows from Diagnosed Prevalence, one for deaths and another for recovery, which returns people back to the Population without Disease.

Figure 2. Generic stock-and-flow structure for diagnosed prevalence of a disease.

Return to article

 




 



The opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors’ affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.


 Home 

Privacy Policy | Accessibility

CDC Home | Search | Health Topics A-Z

This page last reviewed October 25, 2011

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion
 HHS logoUnited States Department of
Health and Human Services