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Projections of the Number of Persons Diagnosed with AIDS and the Number of Immunosuppressed HIV-Infected Persons -- United States, 1992-1994

CDC recently published new projections of the number of persons in the United States who will initially be diagnosed with a condition included in the 1987 acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) surveillance case definition during 1992-1994 (1). * The report also presents estimates of the number of persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related severe immunosuppression (defined as HIV-infected persons with CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts less than 200 cells/uL whose illnesses have not been diagnosed as conditions included in the 1987 surveillance definition) as well as estimates on the effect of adding this measure of immunosuppression to the 1993 expanded AIDS surveillance case definition (2).

During 1991, approximately 58,000 persons in the United States had AIDS as defined by the 1987 AIDS surveillance criteria. During 1992-1994, the number of persons who have illnesses meeting these criteria is expected to increase by a few percent annually, with approximately 85% of those persons being reported to CDC with cases of AIDS. As in recent years, the rate of increase in reported AIDS cases in persons who acquired their HIV infection through heterosexual contact is expected to be greater than that in persons who acquired HIV through either injecting-drug use or male homosexual or bisexual contact.

CDC estimates that, as of January 1993, an additional 120,000- 190,000 U.S. residents had HIV-related severe immunosuppression. However, not all of these persons were aware of their HIV infection, and of those who know their HIV infection status, not all have had an immunologic evaluation.

If AIDS surveillance criteria had remained unchanged, approximately 50,000-60,000 reported AIDS cases would have been expected in 1993. The expansion of the AIDS surveillance case definition to include HIV-related severe immunosuppression should increase reported cases by approximately 75%. In subsequent years, the effect of this expansion on the number of reported cases is expected to be smaller because in 1993 many prevalent as well as incident cases of immunosuppression will be reported as the expanded surveillance case definition is implemented. Accordingly, reported cases of AIDS may decline from 1993 through 1994. However, the number of AIDS cases reported in 1994 is still expected to exceed by 10%-20% the number that would have been reported if the 1987 surveillance criteria had remained in effect.

Reported by: Div of HIV/AIDS, National Center for Infectious Diseases, CDC.

References

  1. CDC. Projections of the number of persons diagnosed with AIDS and the number of im- munosuppressed HIV-infected persons -- United States, 1992-1994. MMWR 1992;41(no. RR-18).

  2. CDC. 1993 Revised classification system for HIV infection and expanded surveillance case definition for AIDS among adolescents and adults. MMWR 1992;41(no. RR-17).

    • Single copies of the document will be available in January from the CDC National AIDS Clearinghouse, P.O. Box 6003, Rockville, MD 20849-6003; telephone (800) 458-5231.



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