Outbreak Reproduction Number Estimates

CDC is using a model to estimate the effective reproduction number (Rt) for the monkeypox outbreak in the US. Rt is used to understand the trajectory of an epidemic up to the current time (where we are now). Each week, CDC will update this website with the most recent estimates.

Outbreak Reproduction Number Estimates

The graph shows the effective reproduction number (Rt) estimation over time based on complete data (green) or partial data (orange). The most recent data are considered incomplete due to delays in reporting monkeypox cases. As a result, there is more uncertainty associated with the most recent Rt estimates.

  • Rt > 1 means the epidemic is growing
  • Rt < 1 means the epidemic is shrinking
  • Shading represents the 50% and 90% credible intervals (uncertainty in the estimates)