Trends in asbestosis mortality and asbestos consumption in the U.S.
Antão-V; Pinheiro-G; Attfield-M
Eur Respir J 2005 Sep; 26(Suppl 49):702s
Mortality trends in the U.S. show that deaths due to asbestosis are increasing, while deaths related to other pneumoconiosis are declining (MMWR 2004; 53:627-632). To analyze the association between asbestos consumption and asbestosis mortality trends from 1968-2002. We undertook linear regression between asbestos consumption since 1900 (1000 metric tons) as the predictor variable and mortality from asbestosis from 1968-2002 (age-standardized rate/million population/year). The predictor variable was progressively lagged by annual increments from 0 to 60 years and the correlation assessed for each lag period. The regression model having the maximum correlation was considered the best prediction line, and was used to derive extrapolated estimates of future mortality based on more recent asbestos consumption data. Maximum correlation (r=0.94) between consumption and mortality rates was achieved using a lag period of 39 years. The graph below shows the relationship between asbestos consumption (....), actual (-), and predicted (---) asbestosis mortality. This analysis, which employs only past consumption and ignores other factors which might influence future mortality, indicates that death rates from asbestosis are not expected to decrease in the next 10-15 years.
Asbestosis; Mortality-rates; Mortality-data; Pneumoconiosis; Models; Asbestos-dust; Asbestos-fibers; Epidemiology; Statistical-analysis; Surveillance
Abstract; Conference/Symposia Proceedings
European Respiratory Journal