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A simulation model for occupational tuberculosis transmission.
Nicas M; Seto E
Risk Anal 1997 Jun; 17(5):609-616
A simulation model of Tuberculosis (TB) transmission among hospital employees is described. A hypothetical cohort of 1000 workers was divided into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. The number of TB patients admitted daily was treated as a poison random variable. A patient imparted a daily infection risk that was identical for all workers within a risk group but that varied between risk groups. In some scenarios, infected employees were assigned a daily risk of developing TB disease. If disease developed, the individual remained on the job for 3 calander weeks and imparted a substantial infection risk to 25 close contacts. Simulations were run over 5-year intervals. Cumulative infection incidence increased over time with more TB patients admitted. Given a scenario in which there were 600, 300, and 100 susceptibles in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively, 50 TB patients admitted annually and accounting for disease among infected employees, at 5 years there were approximately 100 primary infections (due to infection by patients), 40 secondary infections (due to infection by disease coworkers), five primary disease cases, and two secondary disease cases. The input parameter values and simulation outcomes were reasonably consistant with the sparse information reported in the literature.
Pulmonary-system-disorders; Risk-modeling; Infectious-diseases; Hospital-workers; Mathematical-models; Author Keywords: Tuberculosis risk modeling; occupational tuberculosis
Mark Nicas, Center for Occupational and Environmental Health, University of California, Berkley, California 94720
Issue of Publication
Research Tools and Approaches: Risk Assessment Methods
University of California, School of Public Health, Center for Occupational and Environmental Health, Berkeley, California
Page last reviewed: September 2, 2020
Content source: National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Education and Information Division