Abstract
This report presents the model used to develop future demand for fertilizer nutrients. The Bureau of Mines, through its minerals information program, prepares forecasts of future demand for mineral- based fertilizer raw materials for publication and for the use of government policymakers. To facilitate the preparation of these forecasts, the Bureau contracted with wharton econometric forecasting associates to develop a model for projecting long-term and short-term demand for the primary fertilizer nutrients and raw materials. The contractor used the model to prepare a report with estimates of future demand up to 2010 on a worldwide and regional basis for nitrogen, phosphate, potash, sulfur, and phosphate rock. These estimates were based on projected trends in world population, harvests of major crops, harvested area, and fertilizer application rates. Historical data and projections are summarized, and the appendix presents additional data and projections in tabular and graphic formats.
