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Crude Oil Production Data Base and Decline Curve Analysis for Predicting Future Mississippi Tax Revenues.

Rogers RE; Moring J; Zorbalas K
For Reference Only At Bureau Libraries :71 pages
The oil industry has been a mainstay of Mississippi economic vitality since 1939; over $1.1 billion of severance taxes have been collected. However, those revenues have dropped precipitously since 1981. The subject study is to enable state and industry planners to accurately forecast production and to project the revenues to be expected from oil in the next 20 years. Decline curves can extrapolate the production history of an oil well, driven by initial pressures, because the decline of wells follows well-established patterns. The production of all primary oil wells in Mississippi was evaluated by decline curve analysis for each year between 1990 and 2010; the economic limit of each well was set at 50 barrels per month. The production histories of all Mississippi wells were obtained from Dwight's Energydata Inc. and refined to the 1,550 primary producing oil wells in the state. These represented 73 pct of total Mississippi oil production in 1989. The results forecast a decline to only 258 primary producing oil wells in 2010. Severance taxes from them, at an oil price of $25 per barrel, will drop from $25 million in 1990 to $2.5 million in 2010. Taxes and production for each year are presented in the report. If oil prices jumped in 1990, say from a middle east crisis, from $20 to $25 per barrel, Mississippi would realize an additional $5 million in severance taxes for the year from primary production. Clearly the state must encourage new discoveries, encourage enhanced oil recovery, and effectively promote the development of this vital natural resource.
Publication Date
Document Type
CP; Final Contract Report;
Fiscal Year
Identifying No.
OFR 45-90
NIOSH Division
Source Name
For Reference Only At Bureau Libraries
Performing Organization
University of Mississippi
Page last reviewed: December 10, 2021
Content source: National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Education and Information Division