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Issue 49, December 6, 2022

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CDC Science Clips: Volume 14, Issue 49, December 6, 2022

Science Clips is produced weekly to enhance awareness of emerging scientific knowledge for the public health community. Each article features an Altmetric Attention score to track social and mainstream media mentions.

The report consists of these components:

  1. CDC Authored Publications
    The names of CDC authors are indicated in bold text.
    Articles published in the past 6-8 weeks authored by CDC or ATSDR staff.
    • Antimicrobial Resistance and Antibiotic Stewardship
      1. Evaluation of antifungal use in long-term care facilities using pharmacy dispensing data in the USA, 2019
        Dickinson DT, Gouin KA, Neuhauser MM, Benedict K, Cincotta S, Kabbani S.
        J Antimicrob Chemother. 2022 Nov 17.

    • Chronic Diseases and Conditions
      1. High disease severity among Asian patients in a US multiethnic cohort of individuals with systemic lupus erythematosus
        DeQuattro K, Trupin L, Murphy LB, Rush S, Criswell LA, Lanata CM, Dall'Era M, Katz P, Yazdany J.
        Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken). 2022 Jun;74(6):896-903.
        OBJECTIVE: Knowledge about systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) outcomes among US Asian patients is lacking. The present study was undertaken to examine SLE disease activity, severity, and damage among Asian patients of primarily Chinese and Filipino descent in a multiethnic cohort. METHODS: California Lupus Epidemiology Study (n = 328) data were analyzed. Data were collected in English, Cantonese, Mandarin, or Spanish using validated instruments for disease activity (Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index), disease severity (Lupus Severity Index [LSI]), and disease damage (Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index). We assessed differences in SLE outcomes among racial/ethnic groups using multivariable linear regression including interaction terms for age at diagnosis and race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Asian was the largest racial/ethnic group (38% [Chinese = 22%; Filipino = 9%; Other = 7%]). Average age at diagnosis was younger among Asian patients (27.9 years), particularly Filipino patients (22.2 years), compared with White (29.4 years) and Black patients (34.0 years). After adjustment, disease activity and damage were not significantly different across groups. Disease severity among Asian patients was significantly higher than among White patients (LSI score 7.1 versus 6.5; P < 0.05) but similar among Black and Hispanic patients. Early age at diagnosis was associated with greater organ damage among Asian, Black, and Hispanic patients, but not White patients. CONCLUSION: SLE was more severe among US Asian patients compared to White patients. Filipinos were affected at strikingly young ages. Asian patients and non-White groups with younger age at diagnosis had greater organ damage than White patients. Such racial/ethnic distinctions suggest the need for heightened clinical awareness to improve health outcomes among Asian patients with SLE. Further study of SLE outcomes across a range of US Asian subgroups is important.

      2. Guidance for selecting model options in the National Cancer Institute Joinpoint Regression Software
        Irimata KE, Bastian BA, Clarke TC, Curtin SC, Badwe R, Rui P.
        Vital Health Stat 1. 2022 Oct(194):1-22.
        The purpose of this report is to provide guidance to users of NCHS data in the selection of modeling options when using the NCI Joinpoint regression software to analyze trends. This report complements another report, "National Center for Health Statistics Guidelines for Analysis of Trends." Considerations are presented for selecting the modeling options, with examples illustrating the choices. The tradeoffs and consequences of choosing the various modeling options using data from NCHS data systems are discussed.encounters.

    • Communicable Diseases
      1. HIV incidence, recent HIV infection, and associated factors, Kenya, 2007-2018
        Young PW, Musingila P, Kingwara L, Voetsch D, Zielinski-Gutierrez E, Bulterys M, Kim AA, Bronson MA, Parekh B, Dobbs T, Patel H, Reid G, Achia T, Keter A, Mwalili S, Ogollah FM, Ondondo R, Longwe H, Chege D, Bowen N, Umuro M, Ngugi C, Justman J, Cherutich P, De Cock KM.
        AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses. 2022 Nov 18.
        BACKGROUND: Nationally-representative surveys provide an opportunity to assess trends in recent HIV infection based on assays for recent HIV infection. METHODS: We assessed HIV incidence in Kenya in 2018 and trends in recent HIV infection among adolescents and adults in Kenya using nationally representative household surveys conducted in 2007, 2012 and 2018. To assess trends, we defined a recent HIV infection testing algorithm (RITA) that classified as recently infected (<12 months) those HIV-positive participants that were recent on the HIV-1 limiting antigen (LAg)-avidity assay without evidence of antiretroviral use. We assessed factors associated with recent and long-term (≥12 months) HIV infection versus no infection using a multinomial logit model while accounting for complex survey design. FINDINGS: Of 1,523 HIV-positive participants in 2018, 11 were classified as recent. Annual HIV incidence was 0.14% in 2018 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.057-0.23), representing 35,900 (95% CI 16,300-55,600) new infections per year in Kenya among persons aged 15-64 years. The percentage of HIV infections that were determined to be recent was similar in 2007 and 2012 but fell significantly from 2012 to 2018 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=0.31, p<0.001). Compared to no HIV infection, being aged 25-34 versus 35-64 years (aOR=4.2, 95% CI 1.4-13), having more lifetime sex partners (aOR=5.2, 95% CI 1.6-17 for 2-3 partners and aOR=8.6, 95% CI 2.8-26 for ≥4 partners versus 0-1 partners), and never having tested for HIV (aOR=4.1, 95% CI 1.5-11) were independently associated with recent HIV infection. INTERPRETATION: Though HIV remains a public health priority in Kenya, HIV incidence estimates and trends in recent HIV infection support a significant decrease in new HIV infections from 2012 to 2018, a period of rapid expansion in HIV diagnosis, prevention, and treatment.

      2. Clinical features of COVID-19, dengue, and influenza among adults presenting to emergency departments and urgent care clinics-Puerto Rico, 2012-2021
        Wong JM, Volkman HR, Adams LE, Oliveras García C, Martinez-Quiñones A, Perez-Padilla J, Bertrán-Pasarell J, Sainz de la Peña D, Tosado-Acevedo R, Santiago GA, Muñoz-Jordán JL, Torres-Velásquez BC, Lorenzi O, Sánchez-González L, Rivera-Amill V, Paz-Bailey G.
        Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2022 Nov 21.
        Dengue and influenza are pathogens of global concern and cause febrile illness similar to COVID-19. We analyzed data from an enhanced surveillance system operating from three emergency departments and an urgent care clinic in Puerto Rico to identify clinical features predictive of influenza or dengue compared with COVID-19. Participants with fever or respiratory symptoms and aged ≥18 years enrolled May 2012-January 2021 with dengue, influenza, or SARS-CoV-2 confirmed by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction were included. We calculated adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% CIs using logistic regression to assess clinical characteristics of participants with COVID-19 compared to those with dengue or influenza, adjusting for age, subregion, and days from illness onset to presentation for clinical care. Among 13,431 participants, we identified 2,643 with dengue (N = 303), influenza (N = 2,064), or COVID-19 (N = 276). We found differences in days from onset to presentation among influenza (2 days [interquartile range: 1-3]), dengue (3 days [2-4]), and COVID-19 cases (4 days [2-7]; P < 0.001). Cough (aOR: 0.12 [95% CI: 0.07-0.19]) and shortness of breath (0.18 [0.08-0.44]) were less common in dengue compared with COVID-19. Facial flushing (20.6 [9.8-43.5]) and thrombocytopenia (24.4 [13.3-45.0]) were more common in dengue. Runny nose was more common in influenza compared with COVID-19 (8.3 [5.8-12.1]). In summary, cough, shortness of breath, facial flushing, and thrombocytopenia helped distinguish between dengue and COVID-19. Although few features distinguished influenza from COVID-19, presentation > 4 days after symptom onset suggests COVID-19. These findings may assist clinicians making time-sensitive decisions regarding triage, isolation, and management while awaiting pathogen-specific testing.

      3. Endemic mycoses: Underdiagnosed and underreported
        Thompson GR, Chiller TM.
        Ann Intern Med. 2022 Nov 22.

      4. Aircraft cabins have high-performance ventilation systems, yet typically hold many persons in close proximity for long durations. The current study estimated airborne virus exposure and infection reductions when middle seats are vacant compared to full occupancy and when passengers wear surgical masks in aircraft. Tracer particle data reported by U.S. Transportation Command (TRANSCOM) and CFD simulations reported by Boeing were used along with NIOSH data, to build nonlinear regression models with particle exposure and distance from particle source as variables. These models that estimate exposure at given distances from the viral source were applied to evaluate exposure reductions from vacant middle seats. Reductions averaged 54% for the seat row where an infectious passenger is located and 36% for a 24-row cabin containing one infectious passenger, with middle seats vacant. Analysis of the TRANSCOM data showed that universal masking (surgical masks) reduced exposures by 62% and showed masking and physical distancing provide further reductions when practiced together. For a notional scenario involving 10 infectious passengers, compared with no intervention, masking, distancing, and both would prevent 6.2, 3.8, and 7.6 secondary infections, respectively, using the Wells–Riley equation. These results suggest distancing alone, masking alone, and these practiced together reduce SARS CoV-2 exposure risk in increasing order of effectiveness, when an infectious passenger is present. © 2022 The Authors. Engineering Reports published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

      5. Low-level viraemia among people living with HIV in Nigeria: a retrospective longitudinal cohort study
        Chun HM, Abutu A, Milligan K, Ehoche A, Shiraishi RW, Odafe S, Dalhatu I, Onotu D, Okoye M, Oladipo A, Gwamna J, Ikpeazu A, Akpan NM, Ibrahim J, Aliyu G, Akanmu S, Boyd MA, Swaminathan M, Ellerbrock T, Stafford KA, Dirlikov E.
        Lancet Glob Health. 2022 Dec;10(12):e1815-e1824.
        BACKGROUND: HIV transmission can occur with a viral load of at least 200 copies per mL of blood and low-level viraemia can lead to virological failure; the threshold level at which risk for virological failure is conferred is uncertain. To better understand low-level viraemia prevalence and outcomes, we analysed retrospective longitudinal data from a large cohort of people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Nigeria. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study using previously collected longitudinal patient data, we estimated rates of virological suppression (≤50 copies per mL), low-level viraemia (51-999 copies per mL), virological non-suppression (≥1000 copies per mL), and virological failure (≥2 consecutive virological non-suppression results) among people living with HIV aged 18 years and older who initiated and received at least 24 weeks of ART at 1005 facilities in 18 Nigerian states. We analysed risk for low-level viraemia, virological non-suppression, and virological failure using log-binomial regression and mixed-effects logistic regression. FINDINGS: At first viral load for 402 668 patients during 2016-21, low-level viraemia was present in 64 480 (16·0%) individuals and virological non-suppression occurred in 46 051 (11·4%) individuals. Patients with low-level viraemia had increased risk of virological failure (adjusted relative risk 2·20, 95% CI 1·98-2·43; p<0·0001). Compared with patients with virological suppression, patients with low-level viraemia, even at 51-199 copies per mL, had increased odds of low-level viraemia and virological non-suppression at next viral load; patients on optimised ART (ie, integrase strand transfer inhibitors) had lower odds than those on non-integrase strand transfer inhibitors for the same low-level viraemia range (eg, viral load ≥1000 copies per mL following viral load 400-999 copies per mL, integrase strand transfer inhibitor: odds ratio 1·96, 95% CI 1·79-2·13; p<0·0001; non-integrase strand transfer inhibitor: 3·21, 2·90-3·55; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Patients with low-level viraemia had increased risk of virological non-suppression and failure. Programmes should revise monitoring benchmarks and targets from less than 1000 copies per mL to less than 50 copies per mL to strengthen clinical outcomes and track progress to epidemic control. FUNDING: None.

      6. Progress toward global eradication of Dracunculiasis - Worldwide, January 2021-June 2022
        Hopkins DR, Weiss AJ, Yerian S, Sapp SG, Cama VA.
        MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2022 Nov 25;71(47):1496-1502.
        Dracunculiasis (Guinea worm disease), caused by the parasite Dracunculus medinensis, is acquired by drinking water containing small crustacean copepods (water fleas) infected with D. medinensis larvae. Recent evidence suggests that the parasite also appears to be transmitted by eating fish or other aquatic animals. About 1 year after infection, the worm typically emerges through the skin on a lower limb of the host, causing pain and disability (1). No vaccine or medicine is available to prevent or treat dracunculiasis. Eradication relies on case containment* to prevent water contamination and other interventions to prevent infection, including health education, water filtration, treatment of unsafe water with temephos (an organophosphate larvicide), and provision of safe drinking water (1,2). CDC began worldwide eradication efforts in October 1980, and in 1984 was designated by the World Health Organization (WHO) as the technical monitor of the Dracunculiasis Eradication Program (1). In 1986, with an estimated 3.5 million cases(†) occurring annually in 20 African and Asian countries(§) (3), the World Health Assembly called for dracunculiasis elimination. The Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP),(¶) led by The Carter Center and supported by partners that include WHO, UNICEF, and CDC, began assisting ministries of health in countries with endemic disease. In 2021, a total of 15 human cases were identified and three were identified during January-June 2022. As of November 2022, dracunculiasis remained endemic in five countries (Angola, Chad, Ethiopia, Mali, and South Sudan); cases reported in Cameroon were likely imported from Chad. Eradication efforts in these countries are challenged by infection in animals, the COVID-19 pandemic, civil unrest, and insecurity. Animal infections, mostly in domestic dogs, some domestic cats, and in Ethiopia, a few baboons, have now surpassed human cases, with 863 reported animal infections in 2021 and 296 during January-June 2022. During the COVID-19 pandemic all national GWEPs remained fully operational, implementing precautions to ensure safety of program staff members and community members. In addition, the progress toward eradication and effectiveness of interventions were reviewed at the 2021 and 2022 annual meetings of GWEP program managers, and the 2021 meeting of WHO's International Commission for the Certification of Dracunculiasis Eradication. With only 15 human cases identified in 2021 and three during January-June 2022, program efforts appear to be closer to reaching the goal of eradication. However, dog infections and impeded access because of civil unrest and insecurity in Mali and South Sudan continue to be the greatest challenges for the program. This report describes progress during January 2021-June 2022 and updates previous reports (2,4).

      7. BACKGROUND: Pediatric tuberculosis (TB) remains a critical public health concern, yet bacteriologic confirmation of TB in children is challenging. Clinical, demographic, and radiological factors associated with a positive Mycobacterium tuberculosis specimen in young children (≤5 years) are poorly understood. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of young children with presumptive TB and examined clinical, demographic, and radiologic factors associated with invasive and noninvasive specimen collection techniques (gastric aspirate, induced sputum, nasopharyngeal aspirate, stool, and string test); up to 2 samples were taken per child, per technique. We estimated associations between these factors and a positive specimen for each technique using generalized estimating equations (GEEs) and logistic regression. RESULTS: A median (range) of 544 (507-566) samples were obtained for each specimen collection technique from 300 enrolled children; bacteriologic yield was low across all collection techniques (range, 1%-7% from Xpert MTB/RIF or culture), except for lymph node fine needle aspiration (29%) taken for children with cervical lymphadenopathy. Factors associated with positive M. tuberculosis samples across all techniques included prolonged lethargy (median [range] adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 8.1 [3.9-10.1]), history of exposure with a TB case (median [range] aOR, 6.1 [2.9-9.0]), immunologic evidence of M. tuberculosis infection (median [range] aOR, 4.6 [3.7-9.2]), large airway compression (median [range] aOR, 6.7 [4.7-9.5]), and hilar/mediastinal density (median [range] aOR, 2.9 [1.7-3.2]). CONCLUSIONS: Identifying factors that lead to a positive M. tuberculosis specimen in very young children can inform clinical management and increase the efficiency of diagnostic testing in children being assessed for TB.

      8. A national household survey on HIV prevalence and clinical cascade among children aged ≤15 years in Kenya (2018)
        Mutisya I, Muthoni E, Ondondo RO, Muthusi J, Omoto L, Pahe C, Katana A, Ngugi E, Masamaro K, Kingwara L, Dobbs T, Bronson M, Patel HK, Sewe N, Naitore D, De Cock K, Ngugi C, Nganga L.
        PLoS One. 2022 ;17(11):e0277613.
        We analyzed data from the 2018 Kenya Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment (KENPHIA), a cross-sectional, nationally representative survey, to estimate the burden and prevalence of pediatric HIV infection, identify associated factors, and describe the clinical cascade among children aged < 15 years in Kenya. Interviewers collected information from caregivers or guardians on child's demographics, HIV testing, and treatment history. Blood specimens were collected for HIV serology and if HIV-positive, the samples were tested for viral load and antiretrovirals (ARV). For participants <18 months TNA PCR is performed. We computed weighted proportions with 95% confidence intervals (CI), accounting for the complex survey design. We used bivariable and multivariable logistic regression to assess factors associated with HIV prevalence. Separate survey weights were developed for interview responses and for biomarker testing to account for the survey design and non-response. HIV burden was estimated by multiplying HIV prevalence by the national population projection by age for 2018. Of 9072 survey participants (< 15 years), 87% (7865) had blood drawn with valid HIV test results. KENPHIA identified 57 HIV-positive children, translating to an HIV prevalence of 0.7%, (95% CI: 0.4%-1.0%) and an estimated 138,900 (95% CI: 84,000-193,800) of HIV among children in Kenya. Specifically, children who were orphaned had about 2 times higher odds of HIV-infection compared to those not orphaned, adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 2.2 (95% CI:1.0-4.8). Additionally, children whose caregivers had no knowledge of their HIV status also had 2 times higher odds of HIV-infection compared to whose caregivers had knowledge of their HIV status, aOR 2.4 (95% CI: 1.1-5.4)". From the unconditional analysis; population level estimates, 78.9% of HIV-positive children had known HIV status (95% CI: 67.1%-90.2%), 73.6% (95% CI: 60.9%-86.2%) were receiving ART, and 49% (95% CI: 32.1%-66.7%) were virally suppressed. However, in the clinical cascade for HIV infected children, 92% (95% CI: 84.4%-100%) were receiving ART, and of these, 67.1% (95% CI: 45.1%-89.2%) were virally suppressed. The KENPHIA survey confirms a substantial HIV burden among children in Kenya, especially among orphans.

    • Community Health Services
      1. The effect of navigation on linkage to a PrEP provider among PrEP-eligible men who have sex with men in a U.S. demonstration project
        Kimball AA, Zhu W, Tanner MR, Iqbal K, Dominguez KL, Henny KD, James A, Elamin F, Drezner K, Bruce J, Torres ME, Price A, Hubbard SJ, Hoover KW.
        AIDS Behav. 2022 Nov 22.
        Our objective is to evaluate the effect of navigation on linkage to a PrEP provider among PrEP-eligible men who have sex with men (MSM) in THRIVE, a demonstration project in seven U.S. public health jurisdictions during 2015-2020. We describe PrEP linkage and navigation use among MSM in THRIVE. We performed multivariable probit regression modeling, controlling for demographic covariates, to estimate the association between navigation and linkage to a PrEP provider among MSM and to assess for disparities in linkage to PrEP among MSM who used navigation. Among 9538 PrEP-eligible MSM, 51.3% used navigation and 53.8% were linked to PrEP. From the three sites where navigation was optional and the main form of PrEP support, MSM who used navigation were 16.69 times (95% CI 13.07-21.32) more likely to link to PrEP compared with MSM who did not use navigation. Among 4895 MSM who used navigation from all seven sites, Black MSM were 21% less likely to link to PrEP compared with White MSM (aRR 0.79; 95% CI 0.74-0.83). Navigation is a promising strategy for improving uptake of PrEP among U.S. MSM, but disparities persist. Addressing the underlying causes of inequities will be important to end the HIV epidemic.


      3. 2gether: A clinic-based intervention to increase dual protection from sexually transmitted infections and pregnancy in young African American females
        Kottke MJ, Sales JM, Goedken P, Brown JL, Hatfield-Timajchy K, Koumans EH, Hardin JW, Kraft JM, Kourtis AP.
        J Womens Health (Larchmt). 2022 Nov 22.
        Background: To determine whether the 2gether intervention increases use of a dual protection (DP; concurrent prevention of pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections [STIs]) strategy and decreases pregnancy and STIs among young African American females, who disproportionately experience these outcomes. Materials and Methods: We conducted a randomized clinical trial comparing the 2gether intervention to standard of care (SOC). Participants were self-identified African American females aged 14-19 years who were sexually active with a male partner in the past 6 months. Participants were followed for 12 months; 685 were included in the analytic sample. The primary biologic outcome was time to any incident biologic event (chlamydia, gonorrhea, trichomonas infections, or pregnancy). The primary behavioral outcomes were use of and adherence to a DP strategy. Results: 2gether intervention participants had a decreased hazard of chlamydia, gonorrhea, trichomonas infections, or pregnancy during follow-up, hazard ratio = 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.58-0.92), and were more likely to report use of condoms plus contraception, generally, adjusted risk ratio (aRR) = 1.61 (95% CI 1.15-2.26) and condoms plus an implant or intrauterine device (IUD), specifically, aRR = 2.11 (95% CI 1.35-3.29) in the prior 3 months compared with those receiving SOC. 2gether participants were also more likely to report use of condoms plus an implant or IUD at last sex and consistently over the prior 3 months. Conclusions: 2gether was efficacious in increasing use of condoms with contraception and decreasing pregnancy or selected STIs in our participants. Implementation of this intervention in clinical settings serving young people with high rates of pregnancy and STIs may be beneficial. ClinicalTrials.gov, No. NCT02291224 (https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02291224?term=2gether&draw=2&rank=5).

    • Environmental Health
      1. Traffic-related emissions continue to be a significant source of air pollution in the United States (US) and around the globe. Evidence has shown that previous policies implemented to restrict-traffic flows have affected air pollution levels. Thus, mitigation strategies associated with the COVID-19 pandemic that modified population-level mobility patterns provide a unique opportunity to study air pollution change across the US. For instance, to slow the spread of the pandemic, state and local governments started implementing various mitigation actions, including stay-at-home directives, social distancing measures, school closures, and travel restrictions. This scoping review aimed to summarize the existing evidence about how air quality changed through mitigation practices throughout the pandemic in the US. We found 66 articles that fit our inclusion criteria. Generally, the consolidated results revealed that nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon monoxide (CO) decreased across the country. Studies observed mixed directions and magnitudes of change for fine and coarse particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), ozone (O3), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Few articles tried to explain this notable heterogeneity in air quality changes by associating contextual factors, such as mobility, traffic flow, and demographic factors. However, all studies agreed that the change in air pollution was nonuniform across the US and even varied within a city. © The Author(s).

      2. A pilot reverse virtual screening study suggests toxic exposures caused long-term epigenetic changes in Gulf War Illness
        Jean-Pierre M, Michalovicz LT, Kelly KA, O'Callaghan JP, Nathanson L, Klimas N, J. A. Craddock T.
        Comput Struct Biotechnol J. 2022 ;20:6206-6213.
        Gulf War Illness (GWI) is a chronic illness that affects upward of 32% of deployed Veterans to the 1991 Gulf War (GW). The symptoms are medically unexplained, ranging across cognitive deficits, fatigue, gastrointestinal problems, and musculoskeletal pain. Research indicates that chemical warfare agents play a key role in the onset and progression of GWI. The Khamisiyah ammunition storage that housed chemical warfare agents such as sarin, an acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibitor, was demolished during the GW, releasing toxicants into the atmosphere affecting deployed troops. Exposure to other chemical agents such as pyridostigmine bromide, N,N-diethyl-m-toluamide, permethrin and chlorpyrifos, were also prevalent during the war. These additional chemical agents have also been shown to inhibit AChE. AChE inhibition induces an acetylcholine build-up, disrupting signals between nerves and muscles, which in high doses leads to asphyxiation. Little is known about low dose exposure. As bioactive compounds tend to interact with multiple proteins with various physiological effect, we aimed to identify other potential shared targets to understand the extent in which these chemicals could lead to GWI. We followed a reverse screening approach where each chemical is computationally docked to a library of protein targets. The programs PharmMapper and TargetNet were used for this purpose, and further analyses were conducted to mark significant changes in participants with GWI. Previously published work on DNA methylation status in GWI was reanalyzed focusing specifically on the predicted shared targets indicating significant changes in DNA methylation of the associated genes. Our findings thus suggest that exposure to GWI-related agents may converge on similar targets with roles in inflammation, neurotransmitter and lipid metabolism, and detoxification which may have impacts on neurodegenerative-like disease and oxidative stress in Veterans with GWI.

      3. Prenatal exposure to polybrominated diphenyl ethers and birth outcomes
        Reddam A, Sjödin A, Cowell W, Jones R, Wang S, Perera F, Herbstman JB, Kupsco A.
        Environ Res. 2022 Nov 15;216(Pt 4):114830.
        BACKGROUND: Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were used as flame retardants and from their end-use products they can be released to accumulate within indoor environments. This may result in exposures to pregnant women with potential adverse effects on the developing fetus. While studies have shown associations between prenatal PBDE exposure and poor birth outcomes, research has mainly focused on birth weight and gestational age and may miss important indicators of newborn size. METHODS: The sample included a cohort of Dominican and African American mother-child pairs from New York City recruited from 1998 to 2006. PBDE congeners (BDE-47, BDE-99, BDE-100, and BDE-153) were measured in cord serum at birth and dichotomized into low (<80th percentile) and high (>80th percentile) categories. Weight, length, head circumference, and gestational age were measured at birth and the ponderal index (birth weight/length x 100), size for gestational age, and population-based z-scores were calculated (n = 305). Separate regression analyses were conducted to estimate associations between PBDEs or PBDE sum (ng/g lipid) and birth outcomes. Quantile g-computation was performed to estimate the effect of total PBDE mixture. We also assessed effect modification by sex and ethnicity. RESULTS: Adjusting for relevant covariates, the high exposure category of BDE-153 was associated with lower birth weight z-score (-0.25, 95% CI: -0.5, 0.0) and longer gestation (0.43 weeks, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.79). The high exposure category of BDE-99 was associated with lower birth length z-score (-0.55, 95% CI: -0.98, -0.12). There was a negative association between the overall PBDE mixture and birth length z-score (-0.10, 95% CI: -0.21, 0.00) per 1 quintile increase in PBDEs. There was no effect modification by sex or ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that prenatal exposures to BDE-153, BDE-99, and total PBDE mixture are associated with birth outcomes in a cohort of Dominican and African American newborns.

      4. Leveraging informatics to improve environmental health practice and innovation
        Coleman EW, Jagne AF, Ruiz AJ.
        J Environ Health. 2022 ;85(4):44-46.

    • Epidemiology and Surveillance
      1. Assessing seroprevalence and associated risk factors for multiple infectious diseases in Sabah, Malaysia using serological multiplex bead assays
        Chan YL, Patterson CL, Priest JW, Stresman G, William T, Chua TH, Tetteh K, Lammie P, Drakeley C, Fornace KM.
        Front Public Health. 2022 ;10:924316.
        BACKGROUND: Infectious diseases continue to burden populations in Malaysia, especially among rural communities where resources are limited and access to health care is difficult. Current epidemiological trends of several neglected tropical diseases in these populations are at present absent due to the lack of habitual and efficient surveillance. To date, various studies have explored the utility of serological multiplex beads to monitor numerous diseases simultaneously. We therefore applied this platform to assess population level exposure to six infectious diseases in Sabah, Malaysia. Furthermore, we concurrently investigated demographic and spatial risk factors that may be associated with exposure for each disease. METHODS: This study was conducted in four districts of Northern Sabah in Malaysian Borneo, using an environmentally stratified, population-based cross-sectional serological survey targeted to determine risk factors for malaria. Samples were collected between September to December 2015, from 919 villages totaling 10,100 persons. IgG responses to twelve antigens of six diseases (lymphatic filariasis- Bm33, Bm14, BmR1, Wb123; strongyloides- NIE; toxoplasmosis-SAG2A; yaws- Rp17 and TmpA; trachoma- Pgp3, Ct694; and giardiasis- VSP3, VSP5) were measured using serological multiplex bead assays. Eight demographic risk factors and twelve environmental covariates were included in this study to better understand transmission in this community. RESULTS: Seroprevalence of LF antigens included Bm33 (10.9%), Bm14+ BmR1 (3.5%), and Wb123 (1.7%). Seroprevalence of Strongyloides antigen NIE was 16.8%, for Toxoplasma antigen SAG2A was 29.9%, and Giardia antigens GVSP3 + GVSP5 was 23.2%. Seroprevalence estimates for yaws Rp17 was 4.91%, for TmpA was 4.81%, and for combined seropositivity to both antigens was 1.2%. Seroprevalence estimates for trachoma Pgp3 + Ct694 were 4.5%. Age was a significant risk factors consistent among all antigens assessed, while other risk factors varied among the different antigens. Spatial heterogeneity of seroprevalence was observed more prominently in lymphatic filariasis and toxoplasmosis. CONCLUSIONS: Multiplex bead assays can be used to assess serological responses to numerous pathogens simultaneously to support infectious disease surveillance in rural communities, especially where prevalences estimates are lacking for neglected tropical diseases. Demographic and spatial data collected alongside serosurveys can prove useful in identifying risk factors associated with exposure and geographic distribution of transmission.

      2. Protocol to implement a syndromic surveillance survey of COVID-19 in Malawi
        Maphosa T, Woelk G, Baack BN, Kim E, Machekano R, Mwale AC, Kalua T, Zimba S, Kanyenda Chamanga R, Maida A, Auld A, Azman AS, Oziemkowska M, Sunguti J, Golowa C, Kapanda L, Nkhoma H, Sampathkumar V, Ahimbisibwe A, Kalitera L, Masina E, Lumala R, Kudiabor K, Joaki Z, Muchuchuti C, Mengezi TH, Nyirenda R, Guay L.
        Public Health Pract (Oxf). 2022 Dec;4:100339.
        INTRODUCTION: Malawi experienced two waves of COVID-19 between April 2020 and February 2021. A High negative impact of COVID-19 was experienced in the second wave, with increased hospital admissions that overwhelmed the healthcare system. This paper describes a protocol to implement a telephone-based syndromic surveillance system to assist public health leaders in the guidance, implementation, and evaluation of programs and policies for COVID-19 prevention and control in Malawi. STUDY DESIGN: This is a serial cross-sectional telephonic-based national survey focusing on the general population and People living with HIV and AIDS. METHODS: We will conduct a serial cross-sectional telephone survey to assess self-reported recent and current experience of influenza-like illness (ILI)/COVID-19-like-illness (CLI), household deaths, access to routine health services, and knowledge related to COVID-19. Structured questionnaires will be administered to two populations: 1) the general population and 2) people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at EGPAF-supported health facilities. Electronic data collection forms using secure tablets will be used based on randomly selected mobile numbers from electronic medical records (EMR) for PLHIV. We will use random digit dialing (RDD) for the general population to generate phone numbers to dial respondents. The technique uses computer-generated random numbers, using the 10-digit basic structure of mobile phone numbers for the two existing mobile phone companies in Malawi. Interviews will be conducted only with respondents that will verbally consent. A near real-time online dashboard will be developed to help visualize the data and share results with key policymakers. CONCLUSION: The designed syndromic surveillance system is low-cost and feasible to implement under COVID-19 restrictions, with no physical contact with respondents and limited movement of the study teams and communities. The system will allow estimation proportions of those reporting ILI/CLI among the general population and PLHIV on ART and monitor trends over time to detect locations with possible COVID-19 transmission. Reported household deaths in Malawi, access to health services, and COVID-19 knowledge will be monitored to assess the burden and impact on communities in Malawi.

    • Health Behavior and Risk
      1. Geographic heterogeneity in behavioral and social drivers of COVID-19 vaccination
        Masters NB, Zhou T, Meng L, Lu PJ, Kriss JL, Black C, Omari A, Boone K, Weiss D, Carter RJ, Brewer NT, Singleton JA.
        Am J Prev Med. 2022 Dec;63(6):883-893.
        INTRODUCTION: Little is known about how the drivers of COVID-19 vaccination vary across the U.S. To inform vaccination outreach efforts, this study explores geographic variation in correlates of COVID-19 nonvaccination among adults. METHODS: Participants were a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults identified through random-digit dialing for the National Immunization Survey-Adult COVID Module. Analyses examined the geographic and temporal landscape of constructs in the Behavioral and Social Drivers of Vaccination Framework among unvaccinated respondents from May 2021 to December 2021 (n=531,798) and sociodemographic and geographic disparities and Behavioral and Social Drivers of Vaccination predictors of COVID-19 nonvaccination from October 2021 to December 2021 (n=187,756). RESULTS: National coverage with at least 1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine was 79.3% by December 2021, with substantial geographic heterogeneity. Regions with the largest proportion of unvaccinated persons who would probably get a COVID-19 vaccine or were unsure resided in the Southeast and Midwest (Health and Human Services Regions 4 and 5). Both regions had similar temporal trends regarding concerns about COVID-19 and confidence in vaccine importance, although the Southeast had especially low confidence in vaccine safety in December 2021, lowest in Florida (5.5%) and highest in North Carolina (18.0%). The strongest Behavioral and Social Drivers of Vaccination correlate of not receiving a COVID-19 vaccination was lower confidence in COVID-19 vaccine importance (adjusted prevalence ratio=5.19, 95% CI=4.93, 5.47; strongest in the Northeast, Southwest, and Mountain West and weakest in the Southeast and Midwest). Other Behavioral and Social Drivers of Vaccination correlates also varied by region. CONCLUSIONS: Contributors to nonvaccination showed substantial geographic heterogeneity. Strategies to improve COVID-19 vaccination uptake may need to be tailored regionally.

      2. OBJECTIVE: To investigate factors associated with COVID-19 among household members of patients in home-based care (HBC) in western Uganda. METHODS: We conducted a case-control and cohort study. Cases were RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 diagnosed 1-30 November 2020 among persons in HBC in Kasese or Kabarole Districts. We compared 78 case-households (≥1 secondary case) to 59 control-households (no secondary cases). The cohort included all case-household members. Data were captured by in-person questionnaire. We regressed to calculate odds and risk ratios. RESULTS: Case-households were larger than control-households (mean 5.8 vs 4.3 members, p<0.0001). Having ≥1 household member per room (aOR=4.5, 95%CI 2.0-9.9) or symptom development (aOR=2.3, 95%CI 1.1-5.0), interaction (aOR=4.6, 95%CI 1.4-14.7) with primary case-patient increased odds of case-household status. Households assessed for suitability for HBC reduced odds of case-household status (aOR=0.4, 95%CI=0.2-0.8). Interacting with primary case-patient (aRR=1.7, 95%CI 1.1-2.8) increased the risk of individual infection among household members. CONCLUSION: Household and individual factors influence secondary infection risk in HBC. Decisions about HBC should be made with these in mind.

      3. Perception of local COVID-19 transmission and use of preventive behaviors among adults with recent SARS-CoV-2 infection - Illinois and Michigan, June 1-July 31, 2022
        Czeisler M, Lane RI, Orellana RC, Lundeen K, Macomber K, Collins J, Varma P, Booker LA, Rajaratnam SM, Howard ME, Czeisler CA, Flannery B, Weaver MD.
        MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2022 Nov 18;71(46):1471-1478.
        During the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, use of preventive behaviors was associated with perceived risk for contracting SARS-CoV-2 infection (1,2). Over time, perceived risk has declined along with waning COVID-19-related media coverage (3,4). The extent to which communities continue to be aware of local COVID-19 transmission levels and are implementing recommended preventive behaviors is unknown. During June 1-July 31, 2022, health departments in DuPage County, Illinois and metropolitan Detroit, Michigan surveyed a combined total of 4,934 adults who had received a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2 during the preceding 3 weeks. The association between awareness of local COVID-19 transmission and use of preventive behaviors and practices was assessed, both in response to perceived local COVID-19 transmission levels and specifically during the 2 weeks preceding SARS-CoV-2 testing. Both areas had experienced sustained high COVID-19 transmission during the study interval as categorized by CDC COVID-19 transmission levels.* Overall, 702 (14%) respondents perceived local COVID-19 transmission levels as high, 987 (20%) as substantial, 1,902 (39%) as moderate, and 581 (12%) as low; 789 (16%) reported they did not know. Adjusting for geographic area, age, gender identity, and combined race and ethnicity, respondents who perceived local COVID-19 transmission levels as high were more likely to report having made behavioral changes because of the level of COVID-19 transmission in their area, including wearing a mask in public, limiting travel, and avoiding crowded places or events. Continued monitoring of public perceptions of local COVID-19 levels and developing a better understanding of their influence on the use of preventive behaviors can guide COVID-19 communication strategies and policy making during and beyond the pandemic.

    • Health Economics
      1. Family economics and mental health among high-school students during COVID-19
        Jones SE, Hertz MF, DeGue SA, Merlo CL, Piepenbrink RP, Le VD, Dittus PJ, Houston AL, Thornton JE, Ethier KA.
        Am J Prev Med. 2022 Oct 24.
        INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has had unprecedented socioeconomic and health impacts in the U.S. This study examined racial/ethnic and school poverty status differences in the relationship between parent job loss, experiences with hunger, and indicators of mental health problems among public high-school students nationwide during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: The study analyzed data from the Adolescent Behaviors and Experiences Survey, conducted in January-June 2021. The Adolescent Behaviors and Experiences Survey was a 1-time, cross-sectional, online survey that used a stratified, 3-stage cluster sample to obtain a nationally representative sample of high-school students in the U.S. This study was limited to public-school students (n=7,379). RESULTS: Among public high-school students nationwide, 36.9% experienced poor mental health during the pandemic, and during the past year, 43.9% experienced persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness, 19.8% seriously considered attempting suicide, and 9.1% attempted suicide. Parent job loss and having gone hungry were associated with indicators of mental health problems overall and across racial/ethnic groups and school poverty status levels. CONCLUSIONS: Students who experience parent job loss and hunger are likely to also experience poor mental health and may be at higher risk for suicide.

      2. OBJECTIVE: To estimate productivity losses and costs and medical costs due to type 2 diabetes (T2D) among employees aged 18-64 years. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Using 2018-2019 MarketScan databases, we identified employees with T2D or no diabetes among those with records on workplace absences, short-term disability (STD), and long-term disability (LTD). We estimated per capita mean annual time loss attributable to T2D and its associated costs, calculated by multiplying time loss by average hourly wage. We estimated direct medical costs of T2D in total and by service type (inpatient, outpatient, and prescription drugs). We used two-part models (productivity losses and costs and inpatient and drug costs) and generalized linear models (total and outpatient costs) for overall and subgroup analyses by age and sex. All costs were in 2019 U.S. dollars. RESULTS: Employees with T2D had 4.2 excess days lost (20.8 vs. 20.3 absences, 6.4 vs. 3.3 STD days, and 1.0 vs. 0.4 LTD days) than those without diabetes. Productivity costs were 13.3% ($680) higher and medical costs were double (total $11,354 vs. $5,101; outpatient $4,558 vs. $2,687, inpatient $3,085 vs. $1,349, prescription drugs $4,182 vs. $1,189) for employees with T2D. Employees aged 18-34 years had higher STD days and outpatient costs. Women had more absences and STD days and higher outpatient costs than men. CONCLUSIONS: T2D contributes nearly $7,000 higher annual per capita costs, mostly due to excess medical costs. Our estimates may assist employers to assess potential financial gains from efforts to help workers prevent or better manage T2D.

      3. WISQARS cost of injury for public health research and practice
        Peterson C, Rice KL, Williams DD, Thomas R.
        Inj Prev. 2022 Nov 17.
        AIM: Since 2011 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) has demonstrated per-injury average and population total medical and non-medical costs of injuries by type (such as unintentional cut/pierce) in the USA. This article describes the impact of data and methods changes in the newest version of WISQARS Cost of Injury. METHODS: Data sources and methods were compared for the legacy version of the WISQARS Cost of Injury website (available 2011-2021; most recent prior update was published in 2014 with 2010 injury incidence and costs) and the new version (published 2021; 2015-present injury incidence and costs). Cost data sources were updated for the new website and the basis for medical costs and non-fatal injury work loss costs changed from mathematical modelling (combined estimates from multiple data sources) in the legacy website to statistical modelling of actual injury-related medical and work loss financial transactions in the new website. Monetary valuation of non-medical costs for injury deaths changed from lost employment income and household work in the legacy website to value of statistical life. Quality of life loss costs were added for non-fatal injuries. Per-injury average medical and non-medical costs by injury type (mechanism and intent) and total population injury costs were compared for years 2010 (legacy website data) and 2020 (new website data) to illustrate the impact of data and methods changes on reported costs in the context of changed annual injury incidence. RESULTS: Owing to more comprehensive cost capture yielding higher per-injury average costs for most injury types-including those with high incidence in 2020 such as unintentional poisoning and unintentional falls-reported total US medical and non-medical injury costs were substantially higher in 2020 (US$4.6 trillion) compared with 2010 (US$693 billion) (both 2020 USD). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: New data and methods increased the injury costs reported in WISQARS Cost of Injury. Researchers and public health professionals can use this information to proficiently communicate the burden of injuries and violence in terms of economic cost.

      4. IMPORTANCE: Since 1996, the US Preventive Services Task Force has recommended against cervical cancer screening in average-risk women 65 years or older with adequate prior screening. Little is known about the use of cervical cancer screening-associated services in this age group. OBJECTIVE: To examine annual use trends in cervical cancer screening-associated services, specifically cytology and human papillomavirus (HPV) tests, colposcopy, and cervical procedures (loop electrosurgical excision procedure, cone biopsy, and ablation) in Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries during January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2019, and estimate expenditures for services performed in 2019. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This population-based, cross-sectional analysis included health service use data across 21 years for women aged 65 to 114 years with Medicare fee-for-service coverage (15-16 million women per year). Data analysis was conducted between July 2021 and April 2022. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Proportion of testing modalities (cytology alone, cytology plus HPV testing [cotesting], HPV testing alone); annual use rate per 1 000 women of cytology and HPV testing, colposcopy, and cervical procedures from 1999 to 2019; Medicare expenditure for these services in 2019. RESULTS: There were 15 323 635 women 65 years and older with Medicare fee-for-service coverage in 1999 and 15 298 656 in 2019. In 2019, the mean (SD) age of study population was 76.2 (8.1) years, 5.1% were Hispanic, 0.5% were non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native, 3.0% were non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander, 7.4% were non-Hispanic Black, and 82.0% were non-Hispanic White. From 1999 to 2019, the percentage of women who received at least 1 cytology or HPV test decreased from 18.9% (2.9 million women) in 1999 to 8.5% (1.3 million women) in 2019, a reduction of 55.3%; use rates of colposcopy and cervical procedures decreased 43.2% and 64.4%, respectively. Trend analyses showed a 4.6% average annual reduction in use of cytology or HPV testing during 1999 to 2019 (P < .001). Use rates of colposcopy and cervical procedures decreased before 2015 then plateaued during 2015 to 2019. The total Medicare expenditure for all services rendered in 2019 was about $83.5 million. About 3% of women older than 80 years received at least 1 service at a cost of $7.4 million in 2019. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The results of this cross-sectional study suggest that while annual use of cervical cancer screening-associated services in the Medicare fee-for-service population older than 65 years has decreased during the last 2 decades, more than 1.3 million women received these services in 2019 at substantial costs.

      5. Cost-effectiveness considerations for disease intervention
        Williams AM, Gift TL.
        Sex Transm Dis. 2022 Nov 18.

    • Health Equity and Health Disparities
      1. Urgent-care antibiotic prescribing: An exploratory analysis to evaluate health inequities
        Seibert AM, Hersh AL, Patel PK, Matheu M, Stanfield V, Fino N, Hicks LA, Tsay SV, Kabbani S, Stenehjem E.
        Antimicrob Steward Healthc Epidemiol. 2022 ;2(1):e184.
        Healthcare disparities and inequities exist in a variety of environments and manifest in diagnostic and therapeutic measures. In this commentary, we highlight our experience examining our organization's urgent care respiratory encounter antibiotic prescribing practices. We identified differences in prescribing based on several individual characteristics including patient age, race, ethnicity, preferred language, and patient and/or clinician gender. Our approach can serve as an electronic health record (EHR)-based methodology for disparity and inequity audits in other systems and for other conditions.

      2. Disparities in traumatic brain injury-related deaths—United States, 2020
        Peterson AB, Zhou H, Thomas KE.
        J Safety Res. 2022 .
        Introduction: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) affects how the brain functions and remains a prominent cause of death in the United States. Although preventable, anyone can experience a TBI and epidemiological research suggests some groups have worse health outcomes following the injury. Methods: We analyzed 2020 multiple-cause-of-death data from the National Vital Statistics System to describe TBI mortality by geography, sociodemographic characteristics, mechanism of injury (MOI), and injury intent. Deaths were included if they listed an injury International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) underlying cause of death code and a TBI-related ICD-10 code in one of the multiple-cause-of-death fields. Results: During 2020, 64,362 TBI-related deaths occurred and age-adjusted rates, per 100,000 population, were highest among persons residing in the South (20.2). Older adults (≥75) displayed the highest number and rate of TBI-related deaths compared with other age groups and unintentional falls and suicide were the leading external causes among this older age group. The age-adjusted rate of TBI-related deaths in males was more than three times the rate of females (28.3 versus 8.4, respectively); further, males displayed higher numbers and age-adjusted rates compared with females for all the principal MOIs that contributed to a TBI-related death. American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic (AI/AN) persons had the highest age-adjusted rate (29.0) of TBI-related deaths when compared with other racial and ethnic groups. Suicide was the leading external cause of injury contributing to a TBI-related death among AI/AN persons. Practical application: Prevention efforts targeting older adult falls and suicide are warranted to reduce disparities in TBI mortality among older adults and AI/AN persons. Effective strategies are described in CDC's Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths, & Injuries (STEADI) initiative to reduce older adult falls and CDC's Preventing Suicide: A Technical Package of Policy, Programs, and Practices for the best available evidence in suicide prevention. © 2022

    • Immunity and Immunization
      1. Increased levels of anti-PfCSP antibodies in post-pubertal females versus males immunized with PfSPZ Vaccine does not translate into increased protective efficacy
        Kc N, Church LW, Riyahi P, Chakravarty S, Seder RA, Epstein JE, Lyke KE, Mordmüller B, Kremsner PG, Sissoko MS, Healy S, Duffy PE, Jongo SA, Nchama V, Abdulla S, Mpina M, Sirima SB, Laurens MB, Steinhardt LC, Oneko M, Li M, Murshedkar T, Billingsley PF, Sim BK, Richie TL, Hoffman SL.
        Front Immunol. 2022 ;13:1006716.
        BACKGROUND: While prior research has shown differences in the risk of malaria infection and sickness between males and females, little is known about sex differences in vaccine-induced immunity to malaria. Identifying such differences could elucidate important aspects of malaria biology and facilitate development of improved approaches to malaria vaccination. METHODS: Using a standardized enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, IgG antibodies to the major surface protein on Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) sporozoites (SPZ), the Pf circumsporozoite protein (PfCSP), were measured before and two weeks after administration of a PfSPZ-based malaria vaccine (PfSPZ Vaccine) to 5-month to 61-year-olds in 11 clinical trials in Germany, the US and five countries in Africa, to determine if there were differences in vaccine elicited antibody response between males and females and if these differences were associated with differential protection against naturally transmitted Pf malaria (Africa) or controlled human malaria infection (Germany, the US and Africa). RESULTS: Females ≥ 11 years of age made significantly higher levels of antibodies to PfCSP than did males in most trials, while there was no indication of such differences in infants or children. Although adult females had higher levels of antibodies, there was no evidence of improved protection compared to males. In 2 of the 7 trials with sufficient data, protected males had significantly higher levels of antibodies than unprotected males, and in 3 other trials protected females had higher levels of antibodies than did unprotected females. CONCLUSION: Immunization with PfSPZ Vaccine induced higher levels of antibodies in post-pubertal females but showed equivalent protection in males and females. We conclude that the increased antibody levels in post-pubertal females did not contribute substantially to improved protection. We hypothesize that while antibodies to PfCSP (and PfSPZ) may potentially contribute directly to protection, they primarily correlate with other, potentially protective immune mechanisms, such as antibody dependent and antibody independent cellular responses in the liver.

      2. Protection of 2 and 3 mRNA vaccine doses against severe outcomes among adults hospitalized with COVID-19 - VISION Network, August 2021 - March 2022
        DeSilva MB, Mitchell PK, Klein NP, Dixon BE, Tenforde MW, Thompson MG, Naleway AL, Grannis SJ, Ong TC, Natarajan K, Reese SE, Zerbo O, Kharbanda AB, Patel P, Stenehjem E, Raiyani C, Irving SA, Fadel WF, Rao S, Han J, Reynolds S, Davis JM, Lewis N, McEvoy C, Dickerson M, Dascomb K, Valvi NR, Barron MA, Goddard K, Vazquez-Benitez G, Grisel N, Mamawala M, Embi PJ, Fireman B, Essien IJ, Griggs EP, Arndorfer J, Gaglani M.
        J Infect Dis. 2022 Nov 23.
        BACKGROUND: We assessed COVID-19 vaccination impact on illness severity among adults hospitalized with COVID-19 August 2021-March 2022. METHODS: We evaluated differences in intensive care unit (ICU) admission, in-hospital death, and length of stay among vaccinated (2 or 3 mRNA vaccine doses) versus unvaccinated patients aged ≥18 years hospitalized for ≥24 hours with COVID-19-like illness (CLI) and positive SARS-CoV-2 molecular testing. We calculated odds ratios for ICU admission and death and subdistribution hazard ratios (SHR) for time to hospital discharge adjusted for age, geographic region, calendar time, and local virus circulation. RESULTS: We included 27,149 SARS-CoV-2 positive hospitalizations. During both Delta and Omicron-predominant periods, protection against ICU admission was strongest among 3-dose vaccinees compared with unvaccinated patients (Delta OR [CI]: 0.52 [0.28-0.96]); Omicron OR [CI]: 0.69 [0.54-0.87]). During both periods, risk of in-hospital of death was lower among vaccinated compared with unvaccinated but ORs were overlapping; during Omicron, lowest among 3-dose vaccinees (OR [CI] 0.39 [0.28-0.54]). We observed SHR >1 across all vaccination strata in both periods indicating faster discharge for vaccinated patients. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination was associated with lower rates of ICU admission and in-hospital death in both Delta and Omicron periods compared with being unvaccinated.

      3. Assessment of serological responses following vaccination campaigns with type 2 novel oral polio vaccine: a population-based study in Tajikistan in 2021
        Mirzoev A, Macklin GR, Zhang Y, Mainou BA, Sadykova U, Olsavszky VS, Huseynov S, Ruziev M, Saidzoda F, Bobokhonova M, Mach O.
        Lancet Glob Health. 2022 Dec;10(12):e1807-e1814.
        BACKGROUND: Novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) was used to control an outbreak of type 2 circulating vaccine derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) in Tajikistan, in 2021. We measured seroconversion and seroprevalence of type 2 polio antibodies in children who were reported to have received two doses of nOPV2 in outbreak response campaigns. METHODS: In this community serosurvey, children born after Jan 1, 2016 were enrolled from seven districts in Tajikistan. Dried blood spot cards were collected before nOPV2 campaigns and after the first and second rounds of the campaigns and were sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA, USA) for microneutralisation assay to determine presence of polio antibodies. The primary endpoint was to assess change in seroprevalence and seroconversion against poliovirus serotype 2 after one and two doses of nOPV2. FINDINGS: 228 (97%) of 236 enrolled children were included in the analysis. The type 2 antibody seroprevalence was 26% (53/204; 95% CI 20 to 33) before nOPV2, 77% (161/210; 70 to 82) after one dose of nOPV2, and 83% (174/209; 77 to 88) after two doses of nOPV2. The increase in seroprevalence was statistically significant between baseline and after one nOPV2 dose (51 percentage points [42 to 59], p<0·0001), but not between the first and second doses (6 percentage points [-2 to 15], p=0·12). Seroconversion from the first nOPV2 dose, 67% (89/132; 59 to 75), was significantly greater than that from the second nOPV2 dose, 44% (20/45; 30 to 60; χ(2) p=0·010). Total seroconversion after two nOPV2 doses was 77% (101/132; 68 to 83). INTERPRETATION: Our study demonstrated strong immune responses following nOPV2 outbreak response campaigns in Tajikistan. Our results support previous clinical trial data on the generation of poliovirus type 2 immunity by nOPV2 and provide evidence that nOPV2 can be appropriate for the cVDPV2 outbreak response. The licensure and WHO prequalification of nOPV2 should be accelerated to facilitate wider use of the vaccine. FUNDING: World Health Organization, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Rotary International.

      4. Measles, mumps, rubella vaccine (PRIORIX): Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices - United States, 2022
        Krow-Lucal E, Marin M, Shepersky L, Bahta L, Loehr J, Dooling K.
        MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2022 Nov 18;71(46):1465-1470.
        Vaccination is the main means for preventing measles, mumps, and rubella virus infections and their related complications (1,2). Achieving and maintaining high 2-dose measles, mumps, and rubella vaccination coverage in the United States has led to elimination of endemic measles in 2000, rubella and congenital rubella syndrome in 2004, and a sharp decrease in mumps cases. However, measles and rubella remain endemic in many countries, leading to importations of cases and occasional local transmission within the United States (3). Reported U.S. mumps cases declined >99% from the prevaccine period (4); however, mumps is endemic worldwide, and since 2006, the number of mumps cases and mumps outbreaks has increased in the United States, with wider geographic spread since 2016 (4). Given the risk for importation of measles and rubella and the resurgence of mumps, maintaining high measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage is important. Since 1978, only one MMR vaccine, M-M-R II (Merck and Co., Inc.), has been available in the United States. On June 6, 2022, the Food and Drug Administration approved a second MMR vaccine, PRIORIX (GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals), for the prevention of measles, mumps, and rubella in persons aged ≥12 months. The three live attenuated viruses contained in PRIORIX are genetically similar or identical to the corresponding components in M-M-R II (Table) (5-7). On June 23, 2022, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) unanimously recommended PRIORIX as an option to prevent measles, mumps, and rubella according to the existing recommended schedules and for off-label uses (i.e., indications not included in the package insert)* (1,2). ACIP considered PRIORIX to be safe, immunogenic, and noninferior to M-M-R II. Both PRIORIX and M-M-R II are fully interchangeable for all indications for which MMR vaccination is recommended. This report contains ACIP recommendations specific to PRIORIX and supplements the existing ACIP recommendations for MMR use (1,2).

      5. Progress toward regional measles elimination - Worldwide, 2000-2021
        Minta AA, Ferrari M, Antoni S, Portnoy A, Sbarra A, Lambert B, Hauryski S, Hatcher C, Nedelec Y, Datta D, Ho LL, Steulet C, Gacic-Dobo M, Rota PA, Mulders MN, Bose AS, Perea WA, O'Connor P.
        MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2022 Nov 25;71(47):1489-1495.
        All six World Health Organization (WHO) regions have committed to eliminating measles.* The Immunization Agenda 2021-2030 (IA2030)(†) aims to achieve the regional targets as a core indicator of impact and positions measles as the tracer of a health system's ability to deliver essential childhood vaccines. IA2030 highlights the importance of ensuring rigorous measles surveillance systems to document immunity gaps and achieve 95% coverage with 2 timely doses of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) among children. This report describes progress toward measles elimination during 2000-2021 and updates a previous report (1). During 2000-2021, estimated global coverage with a first MCV dose (MCV1) increased from 72% to a peak of 86% in 2019, but decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic to 83% in 2020 and to 81% in 2021, the lowest MCV1 coverage recorded since 2008. All countries conducted measles surveillance, but only 47 (35%) of 135 countries reporting discarded cases(§) achieved the sensitivity indicator target of two or more discarded cases per 100,000 population in 2021, indicating surveillance system underperformance in certain countries. Annual reported measles incidence decreased 88% during 2000-2016, from 145 to 18 cases per 1 million population, then rebounded to 120 in 2019 during a global resurgence (2), before declining to 21 in 2020 and to 17 in 2021. Large and disruptive outbreaks were reported in 22 countries. During 2000-2021, the annual number of estimated measles deaths decreased 83%, from 761,000 to 128,000; an estimated 56 million measles deaths were averted by vaccination. To regain progress and achieve regional measles elimination targets during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, accelerating targeted efforts is necessary to reach all children with 2 MCV doses while implementing robust surveillance and identifying and closing immunity gaps to prevent cases and outbreaks.

      6. Sociodemographic variation in early uptake of COVID-19 vaccine and parental intent and attitudes toward vaccination of children aged 6 months-4 years - United States, July 1-29, 2022
        Santibanez TA, Zhou T, Black CL, Vogt TM, Murthy BP, Pineau V, Singleton JA.
        MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2022 Nov 18;71(46):1479-1484.
        COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective for infants and young children, and on June 18, 2022, CDC recommended COVID-19 vaccination for infants and children (children) aged 6 months-4 years (1,2). As of November 9, 2022, based on administrative data reported to CDC,* 5.9% of children aged <2 years and 8.8% of children aged 2-4 years had received ≥1 dose. To better understand reasons for low coverage among children aged <5 years, CDC analyzed data from 4,496 National Immunization Survey-Child COVID Module (NIS-CCM) interviews conducted during July 1-29, 2022, to examine variation in receipt of ≥1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine and parental intent to vaccinate children aged 6 months-4 years by sociodemographic characteristics and by parental beliefs about COVID-19; type of vaccination place was also reported. Among children aged 6 months-4 years, 3.5% were vaccinated; 59.3% were unvaccinated, but the parent was open to vaccination; and 37.2% were unvaccinated, and the parent was reluctant to vaccinate their child. Openness to vaccination was higher among parents of Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) (66.2%), non-Hispanic Black or African American (Black) (61.1%), and non-Hispanic Asian (Asian) (83.1%) children than among parents of non-Hispanic White (White) (52.9%) children and lower among parents of children in rural areas (45.8%) than among parents of children in urban areas (64.1%). Parental confidence in COVID-19 vaccine safety and receipt of a provider recommendation for COVID-19 vaccination were lower among unvaccinated than vaccinated children. COVID-19 vaccine recommendations from a health care provider, along with dissemination of information about the safety of COVID-19 vaccine by trusted persons, could increase vaccination coverage among young children.

      7. Parental intentions to vaccinate children against COVID-19: Findings from a U.S. National Survey
        Guerin RJ, Naeim A, Baxter-King R, Okun AH, Holliday D, Vavreck L.
        Vaccine. 2022 Nov 7.
        We examined parents' COVID-19 vaccination intentions for their children, reasons for not vaccinating, and the potential impact of a school/daycare vaccination requirement or pediatrician's recommendation on vaccination intentions. Two online surveys were conducted in June-July and September-October 2021, before pediatric COVID-19 vaccines were authorized for emergency use in children age < 12 years, with an internet-based, non-probability sample of U.S. adults. Respondents with children (age < 18 years) in the household were asked about their intention (likelihood) of vaccinating these children against COVID-19. Weighted Chi-square tests using a Rao-Scott correction were performed. Vaccinated (45.7 %) versus unvaccinated (6.9 %) parents were almost seven times more likely to have vaccinated their 12-17-year-old children against COVID-19. Approximately 58.4 % of respondents with unvaccinated children ages 2-11 years and 42.4 % of those with children < 2 years said they are "very" or "extremely likely" to vaccinate these children against COVID-19. Female parents were significantly more likely (p < .01 to p < .001) to express lower levels of COVID-19 vaccine intentions. Across all age groups of children unvaccinated against COVID-19, parental vaccine intentions increased with increased household income and education levels. COVID-19 vaccine side effects and safety concerns were primary reasons for not vaccinating children. Strategies including school vaccination requirements and recommendations from pediatricians were shown to increase parental COVID-19 vaccination intentions for some. More research is needed on factors that increase/hinder COVID-19 pediatric vaccine uptake.

      8. Outbreak response strategies with type 2-containing oral poliovirus vaccines
        Kalkowska DA, Wassilak SG, Pallansch MA, Burns CC, Wiesen E, Durry E, Badizadegan K, Thompson KM.
        Vaccine. 2022 Nov 16.
        Despite exhaustive and fully-financed plans to manage the risks of globally coordinated cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) containing type 2 (OPV2) prior to 2016, as of 2022, extensive, continued transmission of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) type 2 (cVDPV2) remains. Notably, cumulative cases caused by cVDPV2 since 2016 now exceed 2,500. Earlier analyses explored the implications of using different vaccine formulations to respond to cVDPV2 outbreaks and demonstrated how different properties of novel OPV2 (nOPV2) might affect its performance compared to Sabin monovalent OPV2 (mOPV2). These prior analyses used fixed assumptions for how outbreak response would occur, but outbreak response implementation can change. We update an existing global poliovirus transmission model to explore different options for responding with different vaccines and assumptions about scope, delays, immunization intensity, target age groups, and number of rounds. Our findings suggest that in order to successfully stop all cVDPV2 transmission globally, countries and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative need to address the deficiencies in emergency outbreak response policy and implementation. The polio program must urgently act to substantially reduce response time, target larger populations - particularly in high transmission areas - and achieve high coverage with improved access to under-vaccinated subpopulations. Given the limited supplies of nOPV2 at the present, using mOPV2 intensively immediately, followed by nOPV2 intensively if needed and when sufficient quantities become available, substantially increases the probability of ending cVDPV2 transmission globally.

      9. Mapping the distribution of zero-dose children to assess the performance of vaccine delivery strategies and their relationships with measles incidence in Nigeria
        Utazi CE, Aheto JM, Wigley A, Tejedor-Garavito N, Bonnie A, Nnanatu CC, Wagai J, Williams C, Setayesh H, Tatem AJ, Cutts FT.
        Vaccine. 2022 Nov 19.
        Geographically precise identification and targeting of populations at risk of vaccine-preventable diseases has gained renewed attention within the global health community over the last few years. District level estimates of vaccination coverage and corresponding zero-dose prevalence constitute a potentially useful evidence base to evaluate the performance of vaccination strategies. These estimates are also valuable for identifying missed communities, hence enabling targeted interventions and better resource allocation. Here, we fit Bayesian geostatistical models to map the routine coverage of the first doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine (DTP1) and measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) and corresponding zero-dose estimates in Nigeria at 1x1 km resolution and the district level using geospatial data sets. We also map MCV1 coverage before and after the 2019 measles vaccination campaign in the northern states to further explore variations in routine vaccine coverage and to evaluate the effectiveness of both routine immunization (RI) and campaigns in reaching zero-dose children. Additionally, we map the spatial distributions of reported measles cases during 2018 to 2020 and explore their relationships with MCV zero-dose prevalence to highlight the public health implications of varying performance of vaccination strategies across the country. Our analysis revealed strong similarities between the spatial distributions of DTP and MCV zero dose prevalence, with districts with the highest prevalence concentrated mostly in the northwest and the northeast, but also in other areas such as Lagos state and the Federal Capital Territory. Although the 2019 campaign reduced MCV zero-dose prevalence substantially in the north, pockets of vulnerabilities remained in areas that had among the highest prevalence prior to the campaign. Importantly, we found strong correlations between measles case counts and MCV RI zero-dose estimates, which provides a strong indication that measles incidence in the country is mostly affected by RI coverage. Our analyses reveal an urgent and highly significant need to strengthen the country's RI program as a longer-term measure for disease control, whilst ensuring effective campaigns in the short term.

    • Informatics
      1. COVID-19 scientific publications from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, January 2020-January 2022
        Meites E, Knuth M, Hall K, Dawson P, Wang TW, Wright M, Yu W, Senesie S, Stephenson E, Imachukwu C, Sayi T, Gurbaxani B, Svendsen ER, Khoury MJ, Ellis B, King BA.
        Public Health Rep. 2022 Nov 23:333549221134130.
        OBJECTIVE: High-quality scientific evidence underpins public health decision making. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) agency provides scientific data, including during public health emergencies. To understand CDC's contributions to COVID-19 science, we conducted a bibliometric evaluation of publications authored by CDC scientists from January 20, 2020, through January 20, 2022, by using a quality improvement approach (SQUIRE 2.0). METHODS: We catalogued COVID-19 articles with ≥1 CDC-affiliated author published in a scientific journal and indexed in the World Health Organization's COVID-19 database. We identified priority topic areas from the agency's COVID-19 Public Health Science Agenda by using keyword scripts in EndNote and then assessed the impact of the published articles by using Scopus and Altmetric. RESULTS: During the first 2 years of the agency's pandemic response, CDC authors contributed to 1044 unique COVID-19 scientific publications in 208 journals. Publication topics included testing (n = 853, 82%); prevention strategies (n = 658, 63%); natural history, transmission, breakthrough infections, and reinfections (n = 587, 56%); vaccines (n = 567, 54%); health equity (n = 308, 30%); variants (n = 232, 22%); and post-COVID-19 conditions (n = 44, 4%). Publications were cited 40 427 times and received 81 921 news reports and 1 058 893 social media impressions. As the pandemic evolved, CDC adapted to address new scientific questions, including vaccine effectiveness, safety, and access; viral variants, including Delta and Omicron; and health equity. CONCLUSION: The agency's COVID-19 Public Health Science Agenda helped guide impactful scientific activities. CDC continues to evaluate COVID-19 priority topic areas and contribute to development of new scientific work. CDC is committed to monitoring emerging issues and addressing gaps in evidence needed to improve health.

    • Injury and Violence
      1. Child abuse-related homicides precipitated by caregiver use of harsh physical punishment
        Wilson RF, Afifi TO, Yuan K, Lyons BH, Fortson BL, Oliver C, Watson A, Self-Brown S.
        Child Abuse Negl. 2022 Nov 17;135:105953.
        BACKGROUND: Physical punishment (PP), which may involve the use of physical force, has been linked to negative effects in children and can escalate to abusive or harsh PP, resulting in injury or death. OBJECTIVE: To examine characteristics associated with fatal abuse involving caregiver use of harsh PP. METHODS: Data were from the National Violent Death Reporting System in 40 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico for years 2012-2018. Qualitative analysis was used to code textual material into categorial data, and logistic regression was used to examine associations between various characteristics and harsh PP. RESULTS: Approximately 4 % (n = 87) of the 2414 abuse-related homicides were known to have been precipitated by caregiver use of harsh PP. In adjusted models, homicides had greater odds of being harsh PP-related when incidents involved mothers' male companions (versus fathers), victims had a previous nonfatal injury (versus no previous nonfatal injury), and another adult participated in the fatal incident or had awareness of prior abuse/neglect (versus those without this characteristic). Two common precipitators of caregivers' use of harsh PP were: 1) child had a bathroom-related accident/soiled clothes (23.0 %; n = 20), and 2) child disobeyed a directive given by the perpetrator (17.2 %; n = 15). CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights characteristics associated with fatal abuse precipitated by caregiver use of harsh PP. Children were physically punished for developmentally normative behaviors. Ensuring caregivers are aware of and use effective parenting practices that focus on use of nonphysical discipline and promote healthy child development, may help decrease harsh PP and physical abuse-related homicides among children.

      2. High time for an intervention accelerator to prevent abuse of older people
        Mikton C, Beaulieu M, Burnes D, Choo WY, Herbst JH, Pillemer K, Yon Y.
        Nat Aging. 2022 ;2(11):973-975.

    • Laboratory Sciences
      1. Surveillance and correlation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral RNA, antigen, virus isolation, and self-reported symptoms in a longitudinal study with daily sampling
        Bonenfant G, Deyoe JE, Wong T, Grijalva CG, Cui D, Talbot HK, Hassell N, Halasa N, Chappell J, Thornburg NJ, Rolfes MA, Wentworth DE, Zhou B.
        Clin Infect Dis. 2022 Nov 14;75(10):1698-1705.
        The novel coronavirus pandemic incited unprecedented demand for assays that detect viral nucleic acids, viral proteins, and corresponding antibodies. The 320 molecular diagnostics in receipt of US Food and Drug Administration emergency use authorization mainly focus on viral detection; however, no currently approved test can be used to infer infectiousness, that is, the presence of replicable virus. As the number of tests conducted increased, persistent severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA positivity by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in some individuals led to concerns over quarantine guidelines. To this end, we attempted to design an assay that reduces the frequency of positive test results from individuals who do not shed culturable virus. We describe multiplex quantitative RT-PCR assays that detect genomic RNA (gRNA) and subgenomic RNA (sgRNA) species of SARS-CoV-2, including spike, nucleocapsid, membrane, envelope, and ORF8. Viral RNA abundances calculated from these assays were compared with antigen presence, self-reported symptoms, and culture outcome (virus isolation) using samples from a 14-day longitudinal household transmission study. By characterizing the clinical and molecular dynamics of infection, we show that sgRNA detection has higher predictive value for culture outcome compared to detection of gRNA alone. Our findings suggest that sgRNA presence correlates with active infection and may help identify individuals shedding culturable virus.

      2. Performance characteristics of six immunoglobulin m enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays used for laboratory confirmation of measles
        Sowers SB, Anthony K, Mercader S, Colley H, Crooke SN, Rota PA, Latner DR, Hickman CJ.
        J Clin Microbiol. 2022 Nov 21:e0122722.
        Laboratory confirmation of infection is an essential component of measles surveillance. Detection of measles-specific IgM in serum by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) is the most common method used to confirm measles infection. ELISA formats vary, as does the sensitivity and specificity of each assay. Specimens collected within 3 days of rash onset can yield a false-negative result, which can delay confirmation of measles cases. Interfering substances can yield a false-positive result, leading to unnecessary public health interventions. The IgM capture assay developed at the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) was compared against five commercially available ELISA kits for the ability to detect measles virus-specific IgM in a panel of 90 well-characterized specimens. Serum samples were tested in triplicate using each commercial kit as recommended by the manufacturer. Using the CDC measles IgM capture assay as the reference test; the sensitivity and specificity for each commercial kit ranged from 50 to 83% and 86.9 to 98%, respectively. Discrepant results were observed for samples tested with all five commercial kits and ranged from 13.8 to 28.8% of the specimens tested. False-positive results occurred in 2.0 to 13.1% of sera, while negative results were observed in 16.7 to 50% of sera that were positive by the CDC measles IgM capture assay. Evaluation and interpretation of measles IgM serologic results can be complex, particularly in measles elimination settings. The performance characteristics of a measles IgM assay should be carefully considered when selecting an assay to achieve high-quality measles surveillance.

    • Maternal and Child Health
      1. Prevalence and mortality among children with anorectal malformation: A multi-country analysis
        Kancherla V, Sundar M, Tandaki L, Lux A, Bakker MK, Bergman JE, Bermejo-Sánchez E, Canfield MA, Dastgiri S, Feldkamp ML, Gatt M, Groisman B, Hurtado-Villa P, Kallen K, Landau D, Lelong N, Lopez-Camelo J, Martinez LE, Mastroiacovo P, Morgan M, Mutchinick OM, Nance AE, Nembhard WN, Pierini A, Sipek A, Stallings EB, Szabova E, Tagliabue G, Wertelecki W, Zarante I, Rissmann A.
        Birth Defects Res. 2022 Nov 19.
        We examined the total prevalence, trends in prevalence, and age-specific mortality among individuals with anorectal malformation (ARM) METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from 24 population- and hospital-based birth defects surveillance programs affiliated with the International Clearinghouse for Birth Defects Surveillance and Research (ICBDSR) from 18 countries and for births from 1974 to 2014. We estimated pooled and program-specific total prevalence per 10,000 total births. Poisson regression was used to assess time trends in prevalence from 2001 to 2012 when most programs contributed data. We calculated selected age-specific proportions of deaths, stratified by case status RESULTS: The pooled total prevalence of ARM was 3.26 per 10,000 total births (95% Confidence Interval = 3.19, 3.32) for birth years 1974-2014. About 60% of cases were multiple or syndromic. Prevalence of multiple, syndromic, and stillborn cases decreased from 2001 to 2012. The first week mortality proportion was 12.5%, 3.2%, 28.3%, and 18.2% among all, isolated, multiple, and syndromic cases, respectively CONCLUSIONS: ARM is relatively rare, with multiple and syndromic cases showing decreasing prevalence during the study period. Mortality is a concern during the first week of life, and especially among multiple and syndromic cases. Our descriptive epidemiological findings increase our understanding of geographic variation in the prevalence of ARM and can be used to plan needed clinical services. Exploring factors influencing prevalence and mortality among individuals with ARM could inform future studies.

      2. Education and employment as young adults living with spina bifida transition to adulthood in the USA: A study of the National Spina Bifida Patient Registry
        Liu T, Ouyang L, Walker WO, Wiener JS, Woodward J, Castillo J, Wood HM, Tanaka ST, Adams R, Smith KA, O'Neil J, Williams TR, Ward EA, Bowman RM, Riley C.
        Dev Med Child Neurol. 2022 Nov 16.
        AIM: To describe the education and employment transition experience of young adults with spina bifida (YASB) and investigate factors associated with employment. METHOD: We queried education and employment data from the US National Spina Bifida Patient Registry from 2009 to 2019. We applied generalized estimating equations models to analyze sociodemographic and disease-related factors associated with employment. RESULTS: A total of 1909 participants (850 males, 1059 females) aged 18 to 26 years contributed 4379 annual visits. Nearly 84% had myelomeningocele and, at last visit, the median age was 21 years (mean 21 years 5 months, SD 2 years 10 months). A total of 41.8% had at least some post-high school education, and 23.9% were employed. In a multivariable regression model, employment was significantly associated with education level, lower extremity functional level, bowel continence, insurance, and history of non-shunt surgery. This large, national sample of YASB demonstrated low rates of post-secondary education attainment and employment and several potentially modifiable factors associated with employment. INTERPRETATION: Specific sociodemographic, medical, and functional factors associated with employment are important for clinicians to consider when facilitating transition for YASB into adulthood. Additional research is needed to understand the impact of cognitive functioning and social determinants of health on transition success in YASB.

      3. BMI reporting and accuracy of child's weight perception
        Gee KA, Thompson HR, Sliwa SA, Madsen KA.
        Pediatrics. 2022 Nov 18.
        OBJECTIVES: To estimate whether school-based body mass index (BMI) reports impacted the accuracy of children's self-reported weight category, for children overall and within subgroups. METHODS: We analyzed existing data from the Fit Study, a randomized controlled trial of a BMI screening and reporting intervention conducted in California from 2014 to 2017. The sample included 4690 children in 27 schools randomized to receive BMI reports and 4975 children in 27 controls schools that received BMI screening only. To estimate how BMI reporting affected accuracy, we fit multinomial logistic regression models to our data. We calculated average marginal effects, which capture the change in probability that children more accurately reported their weight category because of BMI reporting. RESULTS: We detected no impact of BMI reporting on children's self-reported weight accuracy. Exploratory subgroup analyses show that for Black children, exposure to 1 round of BMI reporting was associated with a 10.0 percentage point increase in the probability of accurately reporting their weight category (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.6 to 17.4). Two rounds of reporting were associated with an increase in the probability of accuracy for Asian children (6.6 percentage points; 95% CI: 0.4 to 12.8), 5th graders (11.1 percentage points; 95% CI: 1.6 to 20.5), and those with BMI <5th percentile (17.1 percentage points; 95% CI: 2.7 to 31.6). CONCLUSIONS: BMI reporting has limited efficacy in increasing children's weight perception accuracy. Although exploratory analyses show that specific subpopulations became more accurate, future prospective studies should be designed to confirm these results.

      4. Weight status of children participating in the National Spina Bifida Patient Registry
        Polfuss M, Liu T, Smith K, Murphy PS, Ward E, Thibadeau J, Dosa NP, Wang Y, Sawin KJ.
        Pediatrics. 2022 Nov 23.
        OBJECTIVES: Describe the distribution of weight status categories and determine factors associated with overweight and obesity (OW/OB) in children and adolescents with spina bifida (SB) using the National Spina Bifida Patient Registry. METHODS: Demographic, anthropometric, and clinical data collected from 2009 through 2018 was used to describe the prevalence of OW/OB. The generalized estimating equation model (GEE) identified factors associated with OW/OB among individuals with SB. RESULTS: Participants (n = 7215) were aged 2 to 19 years (mean = 11.1; standard error, 0.06) and 51.4% female. The majority were non-Hispanic white (57.2%) followed by Hispanic or Latino (25.1%) and non-Hispanic Black (7.5%). The myelomeningocele (MMC) subgroup accounted for 76.3%. Most (60.2%) were community ambulators. The overall percentage of OW/OB was 45.2%, with 49.2% of MMC and 32.0% of nonmyelomeningocele OW/OB. Following the Centers for Disease Control Obesity Severity Classification System, 19.7% of MMC were in class 1, 6.6% in class 2, and 3.5% in class 3. Univariate analysis of MMC participants demonstrated demographic (age, sex, race/ethnicity, and clinic region) and clinical variables (functional level of lesion, ambulation, and number of shunt surgeries) were associated with OW/OB. The GEE model showed that OW/OB was independently, and significantly, associated with age, sex, race/ethnicity, lesion levels, and geographic location of the clinics. CONCLUSIONS: The demographic and clinical factors associated with OW/OB in children and adolescents with SB further our understanding of factors contributing to the higher prevalence of OW/OB in this population and may inform OW/OB prevention and treatment strategies.

    • Parasitic Diseases
      1. Diagnosis of acute chagas disease in a Belizean child with evidence of a multiclonal trypanosoma cruzi infection
        Murray KO, Saldaña MA, Gunter SM, Manzanero R, Zielinski-Gutierrez E, Herrera C, Thompson JM, Maliga A, Bautista K, Lino A, Hawes E, Ronca SE, Morey F, Fuentes RC, Lopez B, Dumonteil E, Morazan GH.
        Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2022 Nov 14;107(5):992-995.
        In January 2020, we instituted acute febrile illness surveillance in 11 hospitals and clinics across Belize. Within 3 months, we diagnosed an acute case of Chagas disease by polymerase chain reaction in a 7-year-old child in the northern part of the country. Phylogenetic analyses of the parasite from the acute blood specimen revealed a multiclonal Trypanosoma cruzi infection, including parasites from the TcII (25.0% of haplotypes), TcIV (2.5% of haplotypes), and TcV (72.5% of haplotypes) discrete typing units. The family reported no history of travel, and three Triatoma species vectors were found within the home. The child's mother was seronegative for antibodies to T. cruzi, ruling out congenital transmission. Convalescent blood samples documented seroconversion and confirmed acute infection. The child was successfully treated with nifurtimox. This is the first known diagnosed case of acute Chagas infection in Belize, highlighting the need for further investigation and public health prevention measures.

      2. The first complete genome of the simian malaria parasite Plasmodium brasilianum
        Bajic M, Ravishankar S, Sheth M, Rowe LA, Pacheco MA, Patel DS, Batra D, Loparev V, Olsen C, Escalante AA, Vannberg F, Udhayakumar V, Barnwell JW, Talundzic E.
        Sci Rep. 2022 Nov 17;12(1):19802.
        Naturally occurring human infections by zoonotic Plasmodium species have been documented for P. knowlesi, P. cynomolgi, P. simium, P. simiovale, P. inui, P. inui-like, P. coatneyi, and P. brasilianum. Accurate detection of each species is complicated by their morphological similarities with other Plasmodium species. PCR-based assays offer a solution but require prior knowledge of adequate genomic targets that can distinguish the species. While whole genomes have been published for P. knowlesi, P. cynomolgi, P. simium, and P. inui, no complete genome for P. brasilianum has been available. Previously, we reported a draft genome for P. brasilianum, and here we report the completed genome for P. brasilianum. The genome is 31.4 Mb in size and comprises 14 chromosomes, the mitochondrial genome, the apicoplast genome, and 29 unplaced contigs. The chromosomes consist of 98.4% nucleotide sites that are identical to the P. malariae genome, the closest evolutionarily related species hypothesized to be the same species as P. brasilianum, with 41,125 non-synonymous SNPs (0.0722% of genome) identified between the two genomes. Furthermore, P. brasilianum had 4864 (82.1%) genes that share 80% or higher sequence similarity with 4970 (75.5%) P. malariae genes. This was demonstrated by the nearly identical genomic organization and multiple sequence alignments for the merozoite surface proteins msp3 and msp7. We observed a distinction in the repeat lengths of the circumsporozoite protein (CSP) gene sequences between P. brasilianum and P. malariae. Our results demonstrate a 97.3% pairwise identity between the P. brasilianum and the P. malariae genomes. These findings highlight the phylogenetic proximity of these two species, suggesting that P. malariae and P. brasilianum are strains of the same species, but this could not be fully evaluated with only a single genomic sequence for each species.

    • Reproductive Health
      1. Abortion surveillance - United States, 2020
        Kortsmit K, Nguyen AT, Mandel MG, Clark E, Hollier LM, Rodenhizer J, Whiteman MK.
        MMWR Surveill Summ. 2022 Nov 25;71(10):1-27.
        PROBLEM/CONDITION: CDC conducts abortion surveillance to document the number and characteristics of women obtaining legal induced abortions and number of abortion-related deaths in the United States. PERIOD COVERED: 2020. DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM: Each year, CDC requests abortion data from the central health agencies for the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and New York City. For 2020, a total of 49 reporting areas voluntarily provided aggregate abortion data to CDC. Of these, 48 reporting areas provided data each year during 2011-2020. Census and natality data were used to calculate abortion rates (number of abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years) and ratios (number of abortions per 1,000 live births), respectively. Abortion-related deaths from 2019 were assessed as part of CDC's Pregnancy Mortality Surveillance System (PMSS). RESULTS: A total of 620,327 abortions for 2020 were reported to CDC from 49 reporting areas. Among 48 reporting areas with data each year during 2011-2020, in 2020, a total of 615,911 abortions were reported, the abortion rate was 11.2 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years, and the abortion ratio was 198 abortions per 1,000 live births. From 2019 to 2020, the total number of abortions decreased 2% (from 625,346 total abortions), the abortion rate decreased 2% (from 11.4 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years), and the abortion ratio increased 2% (from 195 abortions per 1,000 live births). From 2011 to 2020, the total number of reported abortions decreased 15% (from 727,554), the abortion rate decreased 18% (from 13.7 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years), and the abortion ratio decreased 9% (from 217 abortions per 1,000 live births).In 2020, women in their 20s accounted for more than half of abortions (57.2%). Women aged 20-24 and 25-29 years accounted for the highest percentages of abortions (27.9% and 29.3%, respectively) and had the highest abortion rates (19.2 and 19.0 abortions per 1,000 women aged 20-24 and 25-29 years, respectively). By contrast, adolescents aged <15 years and women aged ≥40 years accounted for the lowest percentages of abortions (0.2% and 3.7%, respectively) and had the lowest abortion rates (0.4 and 2.6 abortions per 1,000 women aged <15 and ≥40 years, respectively). However, abortion ratios were highest among adolescents (aged ≤19 years) and lowest among women aged 25-39 years.Abortion rates decreased from 2011 to 2020 among all age groups. The decrease in abortion rate was highest among adolescents compared with any other age group. From 2019 to 2020, abortion rates decreased or did not change for all age groups. Abortion ratios decreased from 2011 to 2020 for all age groups, except adolescents aged 15-19 years and women aged 25-29 years for whom abortion ratios increased. The decrease in abortion ratio was highest among women aged ≥40 years compared with any other age group. From 2019 to 2020, abortion ratios decreased for adolescents aged <15 years and women aged ≥35 and increased for women 15-34 years.In 2020, 80.9% of abortions were performed at ≤9 weeks' gestation, and nearly all (93.1%) were performed at ≤13 weeks' gestation. During 2011-2020, the percentage of abortions performed at >13 weeks' gestation remained consistently low (≤9.2%). In 2020, the highest percentage of abortions were performed by early medical abortion at ≤9 weeks' gestation (51.0%), followed by surgical abortion at ≤13 weeks' gestation (40.0%), surgical abortion at >13 weeks' gestation (6.7%), and medical abortion at >9 weeks' gestation (2.4%); all other methods were uncommon (<0.1%). Among those that were eligible (≤9 weeks' gestation), 63.9% of abortions were early medical abortions. In 2019, the most recent year for which PMSS data were reviewed for pregnancy-related deaths, four women died as a result of complications from legal induced abortion. INTERPRETATION: Among the 48 areas that reported data continuously during 2011-2020, overall decreases were observed during 2011-2020 in the total number, rate, and ratio of reported abortions. From 2019 to 2020, decreases also were observed in the total number and rate of reported abortions; however, a 2% increase was observed in the total abortion ratio. PUBLIC HEALTH ACTION: Abortion surveillance can be used to help evaluate programs aimed at promoting equitable access to patient-centered quality contraceptive services in the United States to reduce unintended pregnancies.

    • Substance Use and Abuse
      1. Synthetic opioids, including illicitly manufactured fentanyls, are driving recent increases in US overdose deaths. Beginning October 2020, the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) code for poisonings involving synthetic narcotics (T40.4X) was split into three codes: fentanyl (T40.41), tramadol (T40.42), and other synthetic narcotics (T40.49). Emergency department data from October 2019-September 2021 in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Syndromic Surveillance Program BioSense platform were queried for synthetic opioid codes in the chief complaint and discharge diagnosis fields. Trend analyses assessed average monthly percent change overall and by sex and age. Emergency department visits for overdoses involving synthetic narcotics increased on average 3.2 % each month before the code split and 4.8 % after. Visits with fentanyl codes drove this increase after the split, accounting for most visits among males, females, and every age group except ≥ 65 years. The average monthly percent increase for ED visits for fentanyl-involved overdoses was greater than for all synthetic narcotics combined (i.e., T40.41, T40.42, and/or T40.49), suggesting that the old code (T40.4X) masked the full extent of the increase in ED visits for fentanyl overdoses. Usage of these new codes can improve tracking of non-fatal synthetic opioid overdose trends.

      2. A stakeholder-driven framework for measuring potential change in the health risks of people who inject drugs (PWID) during the COVID-19 pandemic
        Bradley H, Austin C, Allen ST, Asher A, Bartholomew TS, Board A, Borquez A, Buchacz K, Carter A, Cooper HL, Feinberg J, Furukawa N, Genberg B, Gorbach PM, Hagan H, Huriaux E, Hurley H, Luisi N, Martin NK, Rosenberg ES, Strathdee SA, Jarlais DC.
        Int J Drug Policy. 2022 Oct 17;110:103889.
        BACKGROUND: People who inject drugs (PWID) have likely borne disproportionate health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. PWID experienced both interruptions and changes to drug supply and delivery modes of harm reduction, treatment, and other medical services, leading to potentially increased risks for HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV), and overdose. Given surveillance and research disruptions, proximal, indirect indicators of infectious diseases and overdose should be developed for timely measurement of health effects of the pandemic on PWID. METHODS: We used group concept mapping and a systems thinking approach to produce an expert stakeholder-generated, multi-level framework for monitoring changes in PWID health outcomes potentially attributable to COVID-19 in the U.S. This socio-ecological measurement framework elucidates proximal and distal contributors to infectious disease and overdose outcomes, many of which can be measured using existing data sources. RESULTS: The framework includes multi-level components including policy considerations, drug supply/distribution systems, the service delivery landscape, network factors, and individual characteristics such as mental and general health status and service utilization. These components are generally mediated by substance use and sexual behavioral factors to cause changes in incidence of HIV, HCV, sexually transmitted infections, wound/skin infections, and overdose. CONCLUSION: This measurement framework is intended to increase the quality and timeliness of research on the impacts of COVID-19 in the context of the current pandemic and future crises. Next steps include a ranking process to narrow the drivers of change in health risks to a concise set of indicators that adequately represent framework components, can be written as measurable indicators, and are quantifiable using existing data sources, as well as a publicly available web-based platform for summary data contributions.

      3. Hazardous alcohol use and HIV indicators in six African countries: results from the Population-based HIV Impact Assessments, 2015-2017
        Chang GC, West CA, Kim E, Low AJ, Lancaster KE, Behel SS, Hong SY, Miller LA, Silver R, Mgomella GS, Imaa J, Maokola WM, Carpino T, Hrusa G, Bray RM, Mwila A, Musuka G, O'Connell C, McCracken S, Voetsch AC.
        J Int AIDS Soc. 2022 Nov;25(11):e26029.
        INTRODUCTION: Hazardous alcohol use (HAU), defined as a pattern of alcohol consumption that increases the risk of harmful consequences for the user or others, is associated with an elevated risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and poor health outcomes. We describe the association between people living with HIV (PLHIV) who report HAU and key HIV indicators. Gaps in current literature in estimating HAU on HIV outcomes at the regional level of Eastern and Southern Africa still exist and our analysis aims to address this issue. METHODS: We used weighted pooled data (2015-2017) from the nationally representative Population-based HIV Impact Assessments among adults who provided written consent aged 18-59 years from Eswatini, Malawi, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. We estimated differences in the prevalence of HIV infection and The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 indicators between PLHIV by HAU status using log-binomial regression, stratified by sex. HAU was determined using the Alcohol Use Identification Test-Consumption. RESULTS: Among the 9755 women and 4444 men who tested HIV positive, 6.6% of women and 21.8% of men engaged in HAU. Women who reported HAU were more likely to be HIV positive (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.18-1.46) compared to those who did not report HAU. For the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, women who engaged in HAU were more likely to be unaware of their HIV-positive status (aPR = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.01-1.47) and not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) (aPR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.26-2.37). Men who engaged in HAU were more likely to be unaware of their HIV-positive status (aPR = 1.56, 95% CI 1.39-1.76) and not on ART (aPR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.30-2.29). No difference in viral load suppression, defined as <1000 copies/ml of HIV RNA, was seen by sex. CONCLUSIONS: PLHIV who engage in HAU were more likely to have suboptimal outcomes along the HIV care continuum when compared to those who did not engage in HAU. Targeted interventions, such as alcohol screening for HAU in HIV testing and treatment settings and HIV prevention efforts in alcohol-based venues, may help countries reach HIV epidemic control by 2030.

    • Zoonotic and Vectorborne Diseases
      1. Phylogenetic analysis of Wesselsbron virus isolated from field-captured mosquitoes during a Rift Valley fever outbreak in Kabale District, Uganda-2016
        Kayiwa JT, Mayanja MN, Nakayiki TM, Senfuka F, Mugga J, Koehler JW, Mossel EC, Lutwama JJ.
        Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2022 Nov 21.
        After confirmation of two human cases of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in March 2016 in the Kabale district of Uganda, an entomological investigation was conducted with a focus on mosquito species composition and abundance of known and potential mosquito vector species, and virus testing to identify species most likely involved in Rift Valley fever virus transmission. This information could be used to forecast risk and facilitate improvement of prevention and response tools for use in preventing or controlling future outbreaks. From these collections, two virus isolates were obtained, one each from a pool of Aedes tricholabis and Ae. gibbinsi. Next-generation sequencing identified both isolates as Wesselsbron virus, family Flaviviridae, a neglected arbovirus of economic importance. These are the first reported Wesselsbron virus isolates from Uganda since 1966.

      2. Retrospective molecular investigation of Mayaro and Oropouche viruses at the human-animal interface in West-central Brazil, 2016-2018
        Dias HG, de Lima RC, Barbosa LS, Souza TM, Badolato-Correa J, Maia LM, Ferreira RD, Neves N, Costa MC, Martins LR, Souza EM, Carvalho MD, Araujo-Oliveira A, Marques WA, Sabino-Santos G, Marques MS, Macedo GC, Nantes WA, Santos FM, Netto CC, Morgado TO, Bianchini MA, Correa SH, Almeida JR, Campos LP, Souza IM, Barreto WT, Porfírio G, Alencar JA, Herrera HM, Shlessarenko RD, Cunha RV, Azeredo EL, Salyer SJ, Komar N, Pauvolid-Corrêa A, Dos Santos FB.
        PLoS One. 2022 ;17(11):e0277612.
        Mayaro virus (MAYV, Togaviridae) and Oropouche orthobunyavirus (OROV, Peribunyaviridae) are emerging enzootic arboviruses in Latin America. Outbreaks of febrile illness associated with MAYV and OROV have been reported among humans mainly in the northern region of Brazil since the 1980s, and recent data suggest these viruses have circulated also in more populated areas of western Brazil. MAYV shares mosquito vectors with yellow fever virus and it has been historically detected during yellow fever epidemics. Aiming to investigate the transmission of OROV and MAYV at the human-animal interface during a yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in Brazil, we conducted a retrospective molecular investigation in 810 wild and domestic animals, 106 febrile patients, and 22.931 vectors collected from 2016 to 2018 in Cuiaba and Campo Grande metropolitan regions, western Brazil. All samples tested negative for OROV and MAYV RNA by RT-qPCR. Findings presented here suggest no active circulation of MAYV and OROV in the sampled hosts. Active surveillance and retrospective investigations are instrumental approaches for the detection of cryptic and subclinical activity of enzootic arboviruses and together serve as a warning system to implement appropriate actions to prevent outbreaks.

      3. The potential distribution of Bacillus anthracis suitability across Uganda using INLA
        Ndolo VA, Redding D, Deka MA, Salzer JS, Vieira AR, Onyuth H, Ocaido M, Tweyongyere R, Azuba R, Monje F, Ario AR, Kabwama S, Kisaakye E, Bulage L, Kwesiga B, Ntono V, Harris J, Wood JL, Conlan AJ.
        Sci Rep. 2022 Nov 19;12(1):19967.
        To reduce the veterinary, public health, environmental, and economic burden associated with anthrax outbreaks, it is vital to identify the spatial distribution of areas suitable for Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of the disease. Bayesian approaches have previously been applied to estimate uncertainty around detected areas of B. anthracis suitability. However, conventional simulation-based techniques are often computationally demanding. To solve this computational problem, we use Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) which can adjust for spatially structured random effects, to predict the suitability of B. anthracis across Uganda. We apply a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) within the INLA Bayesian framework to quantify the relationships between B. anthracis occurrence and the environment. We consolidate a national database of wildlife, livestock, and human anthrax case records across Uganda built across multiple sectors bridging human and animal partners using a One Health approach. The INLA framework successfully identified known areas of species suitability in Uganda, as well as suggested unknown hotspots across Northern, Eastern, and Central Uganda, which have not been previously identified by other niche models. The major risk factors for B. anthracis suitability were proximity to water bodies (0-0.3 km), increasing soil calcium (between 10 and 25 cmolc/kg), and elevation of 140-190 m. The sensitivity of the final model against the withheld evaluation dataset was 90% (181 out of 202 = 89.6%; rounded up to 90%). The prediction maps generated using this model can guide future anthrax prevention and surveillance plans by the relevant stakeholders in Uganda.

      4. Drivers and potential distribution of anthrax occurrence and incidence at national and sub-county levels across Kenya from 2006 to 2020 using INLA
        Ndolo VA, Redding DW, Lekolool I, Mwangangi DM, Odhiambo DO, Deka MA, Conlan AJ, Wood JL.
        Sci Rep. 2022 Nov 22;12(1):20083.
        Anthrax is caused by, Bacillus anthracis, a soil-borne bacterium that infects grazing animals. Kenya reported a sharp increase in livestock anthrax cases from 2005, with only 12% of the sub-counties (decentralised administrative units used by Kenyan county governments to facilitate service provision) accounting for almost a third of the livestock cases. Recent studies of the spatial extent of B. anthracis suitability across Kenya have used approaches that cannot capture the underlying spatial and temporal dependencies in the surveillance data. To address these limitations, we apply the first Bayesian approach using R-INLA to analyse a long-term dataset of livestock anthrax case data, collected from 2006 to 2020 in Kenya. We develop a spatial and a spatiotemporal model to investigate the distribution and socio-economic drivers of anthrax occurrence and incidence at the national and sub-county level. The spatial model was robust to geographically based cross validation and had a sensitivity of 75% (95% CI 65-75) against withheld data. Alarmingly, the spatial model predicted high intensity of anthrax across the Northern counties (Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit) comprising pastoralists who are often economically and politically marginalized, and highly predisposed to a greater risk of anthrax. The spatiotemporal model showed a positive link between livestock anthrax risk and the total human population and the number of exotic dairy cattle, and a negative association with the human population density, livestock producing households, and agricultural land area. Public health programs aimed at reducing human-animal contact, improving access to healthcare, and increasing anthrax awareness, should prioritize these endemic regions.

      5. Spatial, sociodemographic, and weather analysis of the Zika virus outbreak: U.S. Virgin Islands, January 2016-January 2018
        Browne AS, Rickless D, Hranac CR, Beron A, Hillman B, de Wilde L, Short H, Harrison C, Prosper A, Joseph EJ, Guendel I, Ekpo LL, Roth J, Grossman M, Ellis BR, Ellis EM.
        Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2022 Nov 18.
        Background: The first Zika virus outbreak in U.S. Virgin Islands identified 1031 confirmed noncongenital Zika disease (n = 967) and infection (n = 64) cases during January 2016-January 2018; most cases (89%) occurred during July-December 2016. Methods and Results: The epidemic followed a continued point-source outbreak pattern. Evaluation of sociodemographic risk factors revealed that estates with higher unemployment, more houses connected to the public water system, and more newly built houses were significantly less likely to have Zika virus disease and infection cases. Increased temperature was associated with higher case counts, which suggests a seasonal association of this outbreak. Conclusion: Vector surveillance and control measures are needed to prevent future outbreaks.


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