Incidence of Newly Diagnosed Diabetes

Incidence Among Adults

Among US adults aged 18 years or older, crude estimates for 2019 were:

  • 1.4 million new cases of diabetes—or 5.9 per 1,000 persons—were diagnosed (Table 2).
  • Compared to adults aged 18 to 44 years, incidence rates of diagnosed diabetes were higher among adults aged 45 to 64 years and those aged 65 years and older (Table 2).

Among US adults aged 18 years or older, age-adjusted data for 2018–2019 indicated:

  • Incidence estimates did not vary significantly by race-ethnicity (Appendix Table 4).
  • Compared to adults with high school education only, incidence rates of diagnosed diabetes were lower among those with more than high school education and similar for those with less than high school education (Appendix Table 4).
Table 2. Estimated crude incidence of diagnosed diabetes among adults aged 18 years or older, United States, 2018–2019
Characteristic Population Estimates, 2019a
Number in thousands (95% CI)
Incidence Estimates, 2018–2019
Rate per 1,000 (95% CI)
Total 1,398 (1,234–1,562) 5.9 (5.0–6.9)b
Age in years
18–44 401 (309–493)  3.2 (2.3–4.4)b
45–64 703 (583–823)  10.1 (8.1–12.5)b
≥65 293 (230–356)  5.8 (4.3–7.8)b
Sex
Men 723 (604–841)  6.6 (5.3–8.2)b
Women 675 (562–788)  5.2 (4.1–6.6)b
Race/ethnicity
White, non-Hispanic 860 (739–982)  6.0 (5.2–6.9)
Black, non-Hispanic 181 (127–235)  6.5 (4.8–8.8)
Asian, non-Hispanic 71 (36–106)  5.0 (3.1–8.1)
Hispanic 261 (173–349)  7.0 (5.0–9.9)

Trends in Incidence Among Adults

  • Among adults aged 18 years or older, the age-adjusted incidence of diagnosed diabetes was similar in 2000 (6.2 per 1,000 adults) and 2019 (5.7 per 1,000 adults). A significant decreasing trend in incidence was detected after 2008 (8.4 per 1,000 adults) through 2019. (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Trends in age-adjusted incidence of diagnosed diabetes among adults aged 18 years or older, United States, 2000–2019

Line chart of the age-adjusted rate per one thousand every other year starting with 2000 and ending with 2018.

Notes: Data shown are estimated incidence rates (solid blue line) and 95% confidence intervals (shaded). Joinpoint identified in 2008 (See Appendix B: Detailed Methods and Data Sources).

Data source: 2000–2019 National Health Interview Survey.

County-Level Incidence Among Adults

Among US adults aged 20 years or older, age-adjusted, county-level data indicated:

  • Estimates of diagnosed diabetes incidence varied across US counties, ranging from 1.6 to 51.7 per 1,000 persons in 2018 (For more detail, see US Diabetes Surveillance System).
  • Median county-level incidence of diagnosed diabetes was 9.7, 10.3 and 9.6 per 1,000 persons in 2004, 2008, and 2018, respectively (For more detail, see US Diabetes Surveillance System).

Incidence Among Children and Adolescents

Data from the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study indicated that during 2014–2015, the estimated annual number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States included:

  • 18,291 children and adolescents younger than age 20 years with type 1 diabetes.
  • 5,758 children and adolescents age 10 to 19 years with type 2 diabetes.

Trends in Incidence Among Children and Adolescents

Among US children and adolescents aged less than 20 years, modeled data in Figure 5 showed:

  • For the period 2002–2015, overall incidence of type 1 diabetes significantly increased.
  • During 2002–2010, Hispanic children and adolescents had the largest significant increases in incidence of type 1 diabetes.
  • During 2011–2015, non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander children and adolescents had the largest significant increases in incidence of type 1 diabetes.

Among US children and adolescents aged 10 to 19 years, modeled data in Figure 5 showed:

  • For the entire period 2002–2015, overall incidence of type 2 diabetes significantly increased.
  • During the 2002–2010 and 2011–2015 periods, changes in incidence of type 2 diabetes were consistent across race/ethnic groups. Specifically, incidence of type 2 diabetes remained stable among non-Hispanic Whites and significantly increased for all others, especially non-Hispanic Blacks.

Figure 5. Trends in incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents, overall and by race/ethnicity, 2002–2015

Line chart displaying Type 1 Diabetes age 0-19 years old from years 2003 to 2015 with White, non-Hispanic having the most incidences and Asian Pacific Islander, non-Hispanic having the least. Another line chart displaying Type 2 Diabetes ages 10 to 19 years old during the years 2003 to 2015 with Black, non-Hispanic leading the number of incidences and White, non-Hispanic with the least incidences.

Note: Adapted from Divers et al. (2020).1 Data are model-adjusted incidence estimates (See Appendix B: Detailed Methods and Data Sources).

Data source: SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study.

Page last reviewed: December 29, 2021