March 21st, 2014 at 2:23:33 PM
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I bet $100 I can pick a perfect bracket.

caveat: i get to pick 8.5*10^16 brackets (<1% of all possible brackets)

we can wait for next year.. or i could probably show the picking methodology is independent of what already has happened.

caveat: i get to pick 8.5*10^16 brackets (<1% of all possible brackets)

we can wait for next year.. or i could probably show the picking methodology is independent of what already has happened.

March 21st, 2014 at 3:14:43 PM
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I will take that bet if you agree to fill them out yourself using pen and paper.

Order from chaos

March 21st, 2014 at 10:53:09 PM
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Does perfect include the first round (i.e. 67 out of 67)?

If all of your brackets have all four #1 teams in the round of 64 winning, that's 2

Where do you get 8.5 x 10

(Oh, and in case you're wondering, use [ sup ] and [ /sup ], but without the spaces, to draw superscript numbers.)

If all of your brackets have all four #1 teams in the round of 64 winning, that's 2

^{63}= 9.22 x 10^{18}brackets.Where do you get 8.5 x 10

^{16}from? 2^{56}is 7.2 x 10^{16}.(Oh, and in case you're wondering, use [ sup ] and [ /sup ], but without the spaces, to draw superscript numbers.)

March 22nd, 2014 at 12:53:10 AM
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Would someone please explain to me what a "bracket" is?

March 22nd, 2014 at 2:52:04 AM
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Brackets for the NCAA Tournament (aka March Madness)Quote:AlanMendelsonWould someone please explain to me what a "bracket" is?

Fighting BS one post at a time!

March 22nd, 2014 at 5:00:43 AM
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What's more outrageous? Not knowing who Floyd Mayweather is, or not knowing what a bracket is? :)

March 22nd, 2014 at 5:05:45 AM
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Quote:wudgedWhat's more outrageous? Not knowing who Floyd Mayweather is, or not knowing what a bracket is? :)

I was thinking the same thing!!!!! It seems to me that anyone who has ever worked in an office would be subject to the constant banter.... Same as knowing about a 'Super Bowl square'!!!!!!

March 22nd, 2014 at 12:19:17 PM
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Quote:ThatDonGuyDoes perfect include the first round (i.e. 67 out of 67)?

no, i did it out of 59 teams and took all #1 picks in the round of 64

Quote:Where do you get 8.5 x 10

^{16}from?

i was basically boasting i could eliminate 99% of the possible brackets fairly easily. I'm sure people have come up with even smaller subsets than mine that would virtually guarantee a winning pick.

anyway, i wasn't serious about the bet.. my picks are just take all the brackets with with less than 24 upsets..

why i think it works; well if the seeding were completely random you'd expect half the games to be upsets. (31.5).. it turns out thought that the average number of upsets are around 17 (which reflects that better teams are usually higher seeds).. take around the historical 95th percentile for # of touney upsets (23 games).. and count all the combinations of less than 24 upsets and you eliminate about 99% of the brackets.

has anyone come up with something better to eliminate improbable brackets? 10^17 combinations is still a lot

March 23rd, 2014 at 12:58:03 AM
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Sorry to trouble you guys. I know what a Super Bowl square is.

But until recently I had no idea what this "bracket" business is. Im not much of a sports fan and I don't make sports bets.

Now, what is a "perfect bracket"?

But until recently I had no idea what this "bracket" business is. Im not much of a sports fan and I don't make sports bets.

Now, what is a "perfect bracket"?

March 23rd, 2014 at 2:15:30 AM
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NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Tournament have 63 games. You pick the winner of every game. As the odds are 2^63 to 1, it is effectively impossible.Quote:AlanMendelsonNow, what is a "perfect bracket"?

While familiarity with the teams should help reduce the odds, there are upset games that almost nobody would predict. They tend to wipe out much of the field.