Important update: Healthcare facilities
CDC has updated select ways to operate healthcare systems effectively in response to COVID-19 vaccination. Learn more
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Given new evidence on the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, CDC has updated the guidance for fully vaccinated people. CDC recommends universal indoor masking for all teachers, staff, students, and visitors to K-12 schools, regardless of vaccination status. Children should return to full-time in-person learning in the fall with layered prevention strategies in place.

COVID-19 Forecasts: Cases

COVID-19 Forecasts: Cases

Reported and forecasted new COVID-19 cases as of September 13, 2021.

Interpretation of Forecasts of New Cases

  • Ensemble forecasts combine diverse independent team forecasts into one forecast and have been among the most reliable in performance over time. However, even the ensemble forecasts have failed to reliably predict rapid changes in the trends of reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Due to this limitation, they should not be relied upon for decisions about the possibility or timing of changes in trends.
  • This week’s national ensemble predicts 290,000 to 1,360,000 new cases are likely to be reported in the week ending October 9, 2021.
  • Case forecasts were not assessed for likely increases or decreases because more reported cases than expected have fallen outside the forecast prediction intervals.

National Forecasts

  • The figure shows the number of new COVID-19 cases reported in the United States each week from July 10 through September 11 and forecasted new cases over the next 4 weeks, through October 9.
  • This week, ensemble forecasts of new reported COVID-19 cases included forecasts from 24 modeling groups, each of which contributed a forecast for at least one jurisdiction.
  • Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details on the assumptions and methods used to produce the forecasts.

Download national forecast data excel icon[XLS – 22 KB]

State & County Forecasts

State-level and county-level forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 cases for the next 4 weeks by jurisdiction. Each forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of COVID-19 cases between jurisdictions. To aid in comparisons between jurisdictions, the ensemble plot for each location has a second axis (in grey) that shows the expected number of cases per 100,000 people. Only forecasts meeting a set of ensemble inclusion criteria are shown; further details are available here: icon. Plots of the state-level and county-level ensemble forecasts and the underlying data can be downloaded below.

Download forecasts for states and territories and for counties pdf icon[10 MB, 534 pages]

Download all forecast data excel icon[CSV – 12 MB]

Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hubexternal icon.

Forecast Inclusion, Evaluation, and Assumptions

The teams with forecasts included in the ensembles are displayed below. Forecasts are included when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements, further described here: icon.

Ensemble and individual team forecast performance is evaluated using a variety of metrics, including the assessment of prediction interval coverage, available at icon.

The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Additional individual model details are available here: icon

Intervention assumptions fall into multiple categories:

1The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.