COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths
Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of August 10, 2020.
Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths
- This week CDC received forecasts of national COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 31 modeling groups. Of the 31 groups, 29 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths and two provided forecasts for total deaths only.
- This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that 4,200 to 10,600 new COVID-19 deaths will be reported during the week ending September 5 and that 180,000 to 200,000 total COVID-19 deaths will be reported by that date.
- State- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that the number of reported new deaths per week may increase over the next four weeks in Colorado and may decrease in Arizona, the Northern Mariana Islands, Vermont, and Wyoming.
- The top row of the figure shows the number of new COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from June 6 through August 8 and forecasted new deaths over the next four weeks, through September 5.
- The bottom row of the figure shows the number of total COVID-19 deaths in the United States each week from June 6 through August 8 and the forecasted number of total COVID-19 deaths over the next four weeks, through September 5.
- Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior.
State-level forecasts figures show observed and forecasted state-level new and cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the US. Each state forecast uses a different scale, due to differences in the numbers of COVID-19 deaths occurring in each state.
Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecasting Hubexternal icon.
The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Information about individual models is available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon.
Forecasts fall into one of two categories:
- These modeling groups make assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future:
- Columbia Universityexternal icon (Model: Columbia)
- Georgia Institute of Technology, Center for Health and Humanitarian Systemsexternal icon (Model: GT-CHHS)
- Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluationexternal icon (Model: IHME)
- John Burantexternal icon (Model: JCB)
- Johns Hopkins University, Infectious Disease Dynamics Labexternal icon (Model: JHU)
- Notre Dame Universityexternal icon (Model: NotreDame-FRED)
- Predictive Science Inc.external icon (Model: PSI)
- University of California, Los Angelesexternal icon (Model: UCLA)
- Youyang Gu (COVID-Projections)external icon (Model: YYG)
- These modeling groups assume that existing social distancing measures will continue through the projected four-week time period:
- Auquan Data Scienceexternal icon (Model: Auquan)
- Carnegie Mellon Universityexternal icon (Model: CMU)
- Columbia University and University of North Carolinaexternal icon (Model: Columbia-UNC)
- Discrete Dynamical Systemsexternal icon (Model: DDS)
- Georgia Institute of Technology, College of Computingexternal icon (Model: GT-DeepCOVID)
- Karlen Working Groupexternal icon (Model: Karlen)
- LockNQuayexternal icon (Model: LNQ)
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicineexternal icon (Model: LSHTM)
- Los Alamos National Laboratoryexternal icon (Model: LANL)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Operations Research Centerexternal icon (Model: MIT-ORC)
- Northeastern University, Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systemsexternal icon (Model: MOBS)
- Notre Dame Universityexternal icon (Model: NotreDame-Mobility)
- Oliver Wymanexternal icon (Model: Oliver Wyman)
- Qi-Jun Hongexternal icon (Model: QJHong)
- Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and University of Washingtonexternal icon (Model: RPI-UW)
- Robert Walravenexternal icon (Model: ESG)
- Steve Horstmanexternal icon (Model: STH)
- US Army Engineer Research and Development Centertxt iconexternal icon (Model: ERDC)
- University of Arizonaexternal icon (Model: UA)
- University of California, Mercedexternal icon (Model: UCM)
- University of Geneva/Swiss Data Science Center (one-week ahead forecasts only)external icon (Model: Geneva)
- University of Georgia, Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseaseexternal icon (Model: UGA-CEID)
- University of Massachusetts, Amherstexternal icon (Models: UMass-MB and Ensemble)
- University of Michiganexternal icon (Model: UM)
- University of Southern Californiaexternal icon (Model: USC)