COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths

COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths
Updated Aug. 13, 2020

Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of August 10, 2020.

Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths

  • This week CDC received forecasts of national COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 31 modeling groups. Of the 31 groups, 29 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths and two provided forecasts for total deaths only.
  • This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that 4,200 to 10,600 new COVID-19 deaths will be reported during the week ending September 5 and that 180,000 to 200,000 total COVID-19 deaths will be reported by that date.
  • State- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that the number of reported new deaths per week may increase over the next four weeks in Colorado and may decrease in Arizona, the Northern Mariana Islands, Vermont, and Wyoming.

National Forecast

National forecast as of 8/10/2020
  • The top row of the figure shows the number of new COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from June 6 through August 8 and forecasted new deaths over the next four weeks, through September 5.
  • The bottom row of the figure shows the number of total COVID-19 deaths in the United States each week from June 6 through August 8 and the forecasted number of total COVID-19 deaths over the next four weeks, through September 5.
  • Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior.

State Forecasts

State-level forecasts figures show observed and forecasted state-level new and cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the US. Each state forecast uses a different scale, due to differences in the numbers of COVID-19 deaths occurring in each state.

Download state forecasts pdf icon[29 pages]1

Download forecast data excel icon[1 sheet]

Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecasting Hubexternal icon.

Forecast Assumptions

The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Information about individual models is available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon.

Forecasts fall into one of two categories:

1 The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.