COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths

Reported and forecasted new and total COVID-19 deaths as of February 22, 2021.

Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths

• This week, ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks included forecasts from 39 modeling groups, each of which contributed a forecast for new or total deaths for at least one jurisdiction.
• This week’s national ensemble predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely decrease over the next 4 weeks, with 4,300 to 12,600 new deaths likely reported in the week ending March 20, 2021. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 526,000 to 548,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
• The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely decrease in 26 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.

National Forecast

Download full-sized imageimage icon

• The figures show the number of new (top row) and total (bottom row) COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from December 19 through February 20 and forecasted over the next 4 weeks, through March 20.
• Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details on the assumptions and methods used to produce the forecasts.

Download national forecast data excel icon[XLS – 33 KB]

State Forecasts

State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new COVID-19 deaths for the next 4 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of COVID-19 deaths between states and only forecasts meeting a set of ensemble inclusion criteria are shown. Further details are available here: https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensemble/external icon. Plots of the state-level ensemble forecast and the underlying data can be downloaded below.

Download state forecasts pdf icon[2 MB, 29 pages]

Download forecast data excel icon[CSV – 1 MB]

Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hubexternal icon.

Forecast Inclusion and Assumptions

The teams with forecasts included in the ensembles are displayed below. Forecasts are included when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements, further described here: https://github.com/reichlab/covid-19-forecast-hub#ensemble-modelexternal icon.

The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Additional individual model details are available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon. Details on the ensemble’s accuracy in short-term predictions and its usefulness as a real-time tool to help guide policy and planning can be found here: Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.external icon

Intervention assumptions fall into multiple categories:

• These modeling groups make assumptions about how levels of social distancing will change in the future:
  • Columbia Universityexternal icon (Model: Columbia)
  • Covid-19 Simulator Consortiumexternal icon (Model: Covid19Sim)
  • Georgia Institute of Technology, Center for Health and Humanitarian Systemsexternal icon (Model: GT-CHHS)
  • Google and Harvard School of Public Healthexternal icon (Model: Google-HSPH)
  • Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluationexternal icon (Model: IHME)
  • Johns Hopkins University, Infectious Disease Dynamics Labexternal icon (Model: JHU-IDD)
  • Notre Dame Universityexternal icon (Model: NotreDame-FRED)
  • Predictive Science Inc.external icon (Model: PSI)

• These modeling groups assume that existing social distancing measures will continue through the projected 4-week time period:
  • Bob Paganoexternal icon (Model: BPagano)
  • Carnegie Mellon Delphi Groupexternal icon (Model: CMU)
  • Columbia University and University of North Carolinaexternal icon (Model: Columbia-UNC)
  • Discrete Dynamical Systemsexternal icon (Model: DDS)
  • Georgia Institute of Technology, College of Computingexternal icon (Model: GT-DeepCOVID)
  • Iowa State Universityexternal icon (Model: ISU)
  • Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Labexternal icon (Model: JHU-APL)
  • Johns Hopkins University, Center for Systems Science and Engineeringexternal icon  (Model: JHU-CSSE)
  • Karlen Working Groupexternal icon (Model: Karlen)
  • London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicineexternal icon (Model: LSHTM)
  • LockNQuayexternal icon (Model: LNQ)
  • Los Alamos National Laboratoryexternal icon (Model: LANL)
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Institute for Data, Systems, and Societyexternal icon (Model: MIT-ISOLAT)
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Laboratory of Computational Physiologyexternal icon (Model: MIT-LCP)
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Operations Research Centerexternal icon (Model: MIT-ORC)
  • Microsoft AIexternal icon (Model: Microsoft)
  • Northeastern University, Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systemsexternal icon (Model: MOBS)
  • Oliver Wymanexternal icon (Model: Oliver Wyman)
  • Qi-Jun Hongexternal icon (Model: QJHong)
  • Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and University of Washingtonexternal icon (Model: RPI-UW)
  • Robert Walravenexternal icon (Model: ESG)
  • Signature Scienceexternal icon (Model: SignatureScience)
  • Steve McConnellexternal icon (Model: CovidComplete)
  • State University of New York, Upstate Medical University and Syracuse Universityexternal icon (Model: UpstateSU)
  • University of Arizonaexternal icon (Model: UA)
  • University of California, Mercedexternal icon (Model: UCM)
  • University of Georgia, Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseaseexternal icon (Model: UGA-CEID)
  • University of Massachusetts, Amherstexternal icon (Models: UMass-MB and Ensemble)
  • University of Michiganexternal icon (Model: UM)
  • University of Southern Californiaexternal icon (Model: USC)
  • Walmart Labs Data Science Teamtxt iconexternal icon (Model: Walmart)

¹ The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.