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Projection of Diabetic Retinopathy and Other Major Eye Diseases among People with Diabetes Mellitus United States, 2005-2050

The number of Americans aged 40 years and older with diabeteic retinopathy (DR) and Vision Threatening Diabetic Retinopathy (VTDR) will triple in 2050, from 5.5 million in 2005 to 16.0 million for DR and from 1.2 million in 2005 to 3.4 million for VTDR. Increases among those aged 65 years and older will be more pronounced (2.5 million to 9.9 million for DR and 0.5 million to 1.9 million for VTDR). The number of cataract cases among whites and blacks aged 40 years and older with diabetes will likely increase 235% by 2050, and the number of glaucoma cases among Hispanics with diabetes aged 65 years and older will increase 12-fold.

Percentage change in the number of people in the United States with diabetic retinopathy, 2005–2050

Our forecasts suggest that the number of people with DR and VTDR will almost triple over the next 45 years. The numbers with DR are expected to increase from 5.5 million in 2005 to 16.0 million in 2050, and the numbers with VTDR are expected to increase from 1.2 million in 2005 to 3.4 million in 2050.

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Percentage change in the number of people in the United States with diabetes who have glaucoma, 2005–2050

We projected 11-to 12-fold increase in the number of Hispanics aged 65 years or older with glaucoma. By 2050 our forecasts suggest that the number of people 65 years and older with diabetes who have glaucoma will be approximately 0.23 million for white men, 0.40 million for white women, 0.21 million for black men, 0.24 million for black women, 0.14 million for Hispanic men, and 0.23 million for Hispanic women.

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Percentage change in the number of people in the United States who have cataracts, 2005–2050

TThe number of cataract cases among people with diabetes aged 75 years or older is expected to increase 637 percent for black women and 677 percent for black men between 2005 and 2050.

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Saaddine JB, Honeycutt AA, Narayan KM, Zhang X, Klein R, Boyle JP. Projection of diabetic retinopathy and other major eye diseases among people with diabetes mellitus: United States, 2005–2050. Arch Ophthalmol 2008;126(12):1740–1747.

 
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