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Volume
8: No. 6, November 2011
ORIGINAL RESEARCH
The Predicted Impact of Heart Disease Prevention and Treatment Initiatives on
Mortality in Lithuania, a Middle-Income Country
| Prevalence Pools |
Potentially Postponable Deaths |
Deaths at Current Levels of Treatment per 100,000
Population Aged 35 to 64 Years |
| No apparent heart disease |
556.3 (282.3 to 878.1) |
1,112 (876 to 1,355) |
| Symptomatic heart disease with an LVEF >35% |
114.8 (41.1 to 227.1) |
188 (120 to 271) |
| Symptomatic heart disease complicated by an LVEF ≤35% |
165.6 (49.7 to 294.7) |
217 (139 to 312) |
| Acute events |
| Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest |
7.0 (3.8 to 8.9) |
160 (126 to 193) |
| ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction |
8.6 (2.3 to 23.2) |
27 (18 to 41) |
| Acute heart failure due to LVEF ≤35% |
16.5 (4.9 to 34.0) |
27 (5 to 40) |
| Non ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction |
11.2 (−0.4 to 30.3) |
27 (17 to 41) |
| Unstable angina and other acute heart disease |
82.7 (9.1 to 210.2) |
220 (141 to 329) |
| Ambulatory presentation of heart disease |
3.5 (1.2 to 7.4) |
7 (5 to 11) |
Figure. Open bars are deaths per 100 population with current level of implementation;
shaded bars are potentially postponable deaths per 100 population. Error bars
represent plausible range of estimate, defined as 1 standard deviation,
if available; otherwise, 20% of the expected value (SD).
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