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Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal
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Volume 8: No. 6, November 2011

ORIGINAL RESEARCH
The Predicted Impact of Heart Disease Prevention and Treatment Initiatives on Mortality in Lithuania, a Middle-Income Country

Prevalence Pools Potentially Postponable Deaths Deaths at Current Levels of Treatment per 100,000 Population Aged 35 to 64 Years
No apparent heart disease 556.3 (282.3 to 878.1) 1,112 (876 to 1,355)
Symptomatic heart disease with an LVEF >35% 114.8 (41.1 to 227.1) 188 (120 to 271)
Symptomatic heart disease complicated by an LVEF ≤35% 165.6 (49.7 to 294.7) 217 (139 to 312)
Acute events
Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest 7.0 (3.8 to 8.9) 160 (126 to 193)
ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction 8.6 (2.3 to 23.2) 27 (18 to 41)
Acute heart failure due to LVEF ≤35% 16.5 (4.9 to 34.0) 27 (5 to 40)
Non ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction 11.2 (−0.4 to 30.3) 27 (17 to 41)
Unstable angina and other acute heart disease 82.7 (9.1 to 210.2) 220 (141 to 329)
Ambulatory presentation of heart disease 3.5 (1.2 to 7.4) 7 (5 to 11)

Figure. Open bars are deaths per 100 population with current level of implementation; shaded bars are potentially postponable deaths per 100 population. Error bars represent plausible range of estimate, defined as 1 standard deviation, if available; otherwise, 20% of the expected value (SD).

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The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


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