Exposure models for the prior distribution in Bayesian decision analysis for occupational hygiene decision making.
Lee-EG; Kim-SW; Feigley-CE; Harper-M
J Occup Environ Hyg 2013 Feb; 10(2):97-108
This study introduces two semi-quantitative methods, Structured Subjective Assessment (SSA) and Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Essentials, in conjunction with 2-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations for determining prior probabilities. Prior distribution using expert judgment was included for comparison. Practical applications of the proposed methods were demonstrated using personal exposure measurements of isoamyl acetate in an electronics manufacturing facility and of isopropanol in a printing shop. Applicability of these methods in real workplaces was discussed based on the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Although these methods could not be completely independent of expert judgments, this study demonstrated a methodological improvement in the estimation of the prior distribution for the Bayesian decision analysis tool. The proposed methods provide a logical basis for the decision process by considering determinants of worker exposure.
Analytical-methods; Analytical-models; Analytical-processes; Exposure-assessment; Exposure-levels; Exposure-methods; Mathematical-models; Statistical-analysis; Quantitative-analysis; Mathematical-models; Decision-making; Exposure-assessment; Exposure-methods; Simulation-methods;
Author Keywords: AIHA exposure rating scheme; Bayesian decision analysis; COSHH Essentials scheme; prior decision distribution; Structured Subjective Assessment (SSA); two-dimensional (2-D) Monte Carlo simulation
Eun Gyung Lee, NIOSH, HELD, 1095 Willowdale Road, Room 3030, Morgantown, WV 26505
Journal of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene