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Iowa radon leukaemia study: a hierarchical population risk model for spatially correlated exposure measured with error.

Authors
Smith-BJ; Zhang-L; Field-RW
Source
Stat Med 2007 Nov; 26(25):4619-4642
NIOSHTIC No.
20040686
Abstract
This paper presents a Bayesian model that allows for the joint prediction of county-average radon levels and estimation of the associated leukaemia risk. The methods are motivated by radon data from an epidemiologic study of residential radon in Iowa that include 2726 outdoor and indoor measurements. Prediction of county-average radon is based on a geostatistical model for the radon data which assumes an underlying continuous spatial process. In the radon model, we account for uncertainties due to incomplete spatial coverage, spatial variability, characteristic differences between homes, and detector measurement error. The predicted radon averages are, in turn, included as a covariate in Poisson models for incident cases of acute lymphocytic (ALL), acute myelogenous (AML), chronic lymphocytic (CLL), and chronic myelogenous (CML) leukaemias reported to the Iowa cancer registry from 1973 to 2002. Since radon and leukaemia risk are modelled simultaneously in our approach, the resulting risk estimates accurately reflect uncertainties in the predicted radon exposure covariate. Posterior mean (95 per cent Bayesian credible interval) estimates of the relative risk associated with a 1 pCi/L increase in radon for ALL, AML, CLL, and CML are 0.91 (0.78-1.03), 1.01 (0.92-1.12), 1.06 (0.96-1.16), and 1.12 (0.98-1.27), respectively.
Keywords
Models; Carcinogens; Cancer; Epidemiology; Humans; Men; Women; Statistical-analysis; Risk-factors; Author Keywords: Bayesian methods; leukaemia risk; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Poisson regression; residential radon exposure; spatial statistics
Contact
Brian J. Smith, Department of Biostatistics, The University of Iowa, 200 Hawkins Drive, C22 GH, Iowa City, IA 52242-1009
CODEN
SMEDDA
CAS No.
10043-92-2
Publication Date
20071110
Document Type
Journal Article
Email Address
brian-j-smith@uiowa.edu
Funding Type
Grant
Fiscal Year
2008
NTIS Accession No.
NTIS Price
Identifying No.
Grant-Number-T42-OH-008491
Issue of Publication
25
ISSN
0277-6715
Source Name
Statistics in Medicine
State
IA
Performing Organization
University of Iowa
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