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Comparing model averaging with other model selection strategies for benchmark dose estimation.

Authors
Wheeler-MW; Bailer-AJ
Source
Environ Ecol Stat 2009 Mar; 16(1):37-51
NIOSHTIC No.
20035046
Abstract
Model averaging (MA) has been proposed as a method of accommodating model uncertainty when estimating risk. Although the use of MA is inherently appealing, little is known about its performance using general modeling conditions. We investigate the use of MA for estimating excess risk using a Monte Carlo simulation. Dichotomous response data are simulated under various assumed underlying dose-response curves, and nine dose-response models (from the USEPA Benchmark dose model suite) are fit to obtain both model specific and MA risk estimates. The benchmark dose estimates (BMDs) from the MA method, as well as estimates from other commonly selected models, e.g., best fitting model or the model resulting in the smallest BMD, are compared to the true benchmark dose value to better understand both bias and coverage behavior in the estimation procedure. The MA method has a small bias when estimating the BMD that is similar to the bias of BMD estimates derived from the assumed model. Further, when a broader range of models are included in the family of models considered in the MA process, the lower bound estimate provided coverage close to the nominal level, which is superior to the other strategies considered. This approach provides an alternative method for risk managers to estimate risk while incorporating model uncertainty.
Keywords
Mathematical-models; Measurement-equipment; Statistical-analysis; Statistical-quality-control; Dose-response; Risk-analysis; Author Keywords: Bayesian model averaging; Model uncertainty; Risk estimation
Contact
Matthew W. Wheeler, CDC, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, MS C-15, 4676 Columbia Parkway, Cincinnati, OH 45226
CODEN
EESTFM
Publication Date
20090301
Document Type
Journal Article
Email Address
aez0@cdc.gov
Fiscal Year
2009
NTIS Accession No.
NTIS Price
Issue of Publication
1
ISSN
1352-8505
NIOSH Division
EID
Source Name
Environmental and Ecological Statistics
State
OH
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