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A simulation model for occupational tuberculosis transmission.

Authors
Nicas-M; Seto-E
Source
Risk Anal 1997 Jun; 17(5):609-616
NIOSHTIC No.
20000074
Abstract
A simulation model of Tuberculosis (TB) transmission among hospital employees is described. A hypothetical cohort of 1000 workers was divided into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. The number of TB patients admitted daily was treated as a poison random variable. A patient imparted a daily infection risk that was identical for all workers within a risk group but that varied between risk groups. In some scenarios, infected employees were assigned a daily risk of developing TB disease. If disease developed, the individual remained on the job for 3 calander weeks and imparted a substantial infection risk to 25 close contacts. Simulations were run over 5-year intervals. Cumulative infection incidence increased over time with more TB patients admitted. Given a scenario in which there were 600, 300, and 100 susceptibles in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, respectively, 50 TB patients admitted annually and accounting for disease among infected employees, at 5 years there were approximately 100 primary infections (due to infection by patients), 40 secondary infections (due to infection by disease coworkers), five primary disease cases, and two secondary disease cases. The input parameter values and simulation outcomes were reasonably consistant with the sparse information reported in the literature.
Keywords
Pulmonary-system-disorders; Risk-modeling; Infectious-diseases; Hospital-workers; Mathematical-models
Contact
Center for Occupational and Environmental Health, University of California, Berkley, California 94720
CODEN
RIANDF
Publication Date
19971001
Document Type
Journal Article
Email Address
mnicas@uclink4.berkeley.edu
Funding Amount
161775
Funding Type
Grant
Fiscal Year
1998
NTIS Accession No.
NTIS Price
Identifying No.
Grant-Number-K01-OH-000155
Issue of Publication
5
ISSN
0272-4332
Priority Area
Research Tools and Approaches: Risk Assessment Methods
Source Name
Risk Analysis
State
CA
Performing Organization
University of California, School of Public Health, Center for Occupational and Environmental Health, Berkeley, California
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