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Probabilistic Modeling of Tailings Embankment Designs. Volume I. Model Development and Verification.

Authors
Anderson-LR; Bowles-DS; Canfield-RV; Sharp-KD
Source
NTIS: PB 83-122598 :233 pages
Link
NIOSHTIC No.
10006540
Abstract
Traditionally, evaluation of the safety of slopes has been based on computing a safety factor against failure. In computing the safety factor, the geometry of the slope, the soil parameters, and the pore pressures were treated as deterministic quantities although they were known to be random variables. A pseudo-three-dimensional probabilistic slope stability model has been developed that treats shear strength as a random variable. The model uses the probability of a slope failure as an assessment of slope reliability. The model can accommodate zoned embankments of soil in which the strength is described by the mohr-coulomb strength envelope. Auto-correlation functions are used to describe the spatial correlation of the strength parameters, c and tan 0/. Model error can also be included in the analysis. Examples are presented to illustrate the influence of the choice of the soil strength variability parameters on the probability of failure. The results show that the critical failure surface based on the minimum safety factor are not necessarily the failure surface that will yield the maximum probability of failure. The analysis of the tailings dam shows that variance reduction can be large and that the model error is the dominant source of uncertainty for the embankment analyzed.
Publication Date
19820101
Document Type
CP; Final Contract Report;
Fiscal Year
1982
NTIS Accession No.
PB83-122598
NTIS Price
A12
Identifying No.
OFR 161(1)-82
NIOSH Division
SRC;
Source Name
NTIS: PB 83-122598
State
UT;
Performing Organization
Utah State University
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