Volume 8, Number 6, June 2002

Research

Defining and Detecting Malaria Epidemics in the Highlands of Western Kenya

Simon I. Hay,*† Milka Simba,† Millie Busolo,‡ Abdisalan M. Noor,† Helen L. Guyatt,*† Sam A. Ochola,‡ and Robert W. Snow*†‡
*University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; †Kenya Medical Research Institute/Wellcome Trust Collaborative Programme, Nairobi, Kenya; and ‡Ministry of Health, Nairobi, Kenya 

Figure 3. Time-series of child admissions and epidemic alerts for the three study hospitals. Time-series of child admissions (<15 years) for Kilgoris (a) Kisii (b), and Tabaka (c) for the 1980-1999, 1987-2000, and 1981-2000 time periods, respectively. The results of the "epidemic" prediction techniques are shown for the World Health Organization, Cullen, and c-sum techniques in red, blue, and black lines, respectively. For the Cullen and c-sum methods, the top line represents untransformed data with standard confidence intervals; the second line is untransformed data with confidence intervals adjusted for small sample sizes; the third line shows log10 transformed data with standard confidence intervals; the fourth line shows log10 transformed data with confidence intervals adjusted for small sample sizes.

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This page last reviewed July 9, 2002

Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal
National Center for Infectious Diseases
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