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Perspectives

Bacterial Vaccines and Serotype Replacement: Lessons from Haemophilus influenzae and Prospects for Streptococcus pneumoniae

Marc Lipsitch
Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA


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Figure 1. The structure of the mathematical model described in the text and in greater detail (30).


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Figure 2. Carriage of three serotypes of Haemophilus influenzae in children vaccinated against serotype b (black bars) and in controls (white bars) (14). Error bars indicate 95% confidence interval (binomial approximation). Shaded bars show the maximum carriage of serotypes e and f in vaccine recipients that could result from replacement in a population where only a small proportion of susceptibles are vaccinated (as in the study). Striped bars show the equivalent figures in a hypothetical study in which virtually all susceptibles were vaccinated.


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Figure 3. Two hypotheses explain the observation of higher rates of carriage of nonvaccine serotypes in vaccine recipients than in controls. Large circles represent plated samples from controls (top) andvaccine recipients (bottom). The left side shows true serotype replacement; here a control carries vaccine types (white colonies), while a vaccine recipient does not, and (possibly as a result of decreased competition) now carries only nonvaccine types (black colonies). The right side shows the unmasking phenomenon, which is an artifact of sampling. Here, both vaccinees and controls carry nonvaccine types, but because only one colony is sampled in each, the vaccinee does not appear to carry nonvaccine types.

 

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This page last reviewed July 1, 1999

Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal
National Center for Infectious Diseases
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention