Could Myocarditis, Insulin-Dependent Diabetes Mellitus, and
Guillain-Barré Syndrome Be Caused by One or More Infectious Agents Carried by Rodents?
Bo Niklasson,*,† Birger Hörnfeldt,‡ Berit Lundman§,¶ *Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Stockholm, Sweden;†National
Defense Research Establishment, Umeå, Sweden; ‡Department of Animal Ecology, Umeå
University, Umeå, Sweden; §Department of Advanced Nursing, University of Umeå, Umeå,
Sweden; ¶Research and Development Unit, Sundsvalls Hospital, Sundsvall, Sweden
Figure 4. Cross-correlation function of incidence of death from myocarditis with
bank vole abundance, 1973–1986. Time series are log transformed; n = 14
computable 0-order correlations. Lines represent + 2 SE. The standard error is
based on the assumption that the series are not cross-correlated and one of the series is
white noise.
Figure 5. Myocarditis deaths, 1974–1986, relative to bank vole abundance 1
year previously (vole data from 1973-1985). Log transformed data. r = 0.635, n
= 13.
Figure 7. Cross-correlation function of Guillain-Barré syndrome incidence with
bank vole abundance, 1973–1982. Time series are log transformed; n = 10
computable 0-order correlations. Lines represent + 2 SE. The stan-dard error is
based on the assumption that the series are not cross-correlated and one of the series is
white noise.
Figure 9. Time series of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus incidence in 1975-1991
relative to bank vole abundance 2 years previously (vole data from 1973-1989).
Untransformed data.
Figure 10. Cross-correlation function of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus
incidence with bank vole abundance, 1973–1991. Time series are differenced (1); n
= 18 computable 0-order correlations. Lines represent + 2 SE. The standard error is
based on the assumption that the series are not cross-correlated and one of the series is
white noise.
Figure 11. Change of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus incidence,
1975–1991, relative to change of bank vole abundance 2 years previously, after
transformation of time series bydifferencing (1) (vole data from 1973-1989). r =
0.595, n = 16.
