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Figure 1. Schematic representation of the decision model. In panel
A, the square node at the left represents the vaccination decision. The
woman’s health thereafter is simulated by a Markov model. Each month,
women are at risk of developing Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection,
SIL (squamous intraepithelial lesions), or cervical cancer. Women who
contract HPV may be infected by a low- or high-risk type. Panel B demonstrates
cervical-cancer diagnosis, treatment, and natural history. Throughout
a woman’s lifetime, her HPV, SIL, or cervical cancer status can be discovered
either through development of symptoms or through routine Pap tests. Panel
C shows that women who undergo a Pap test may test negative or positive
for SIL.
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