Volume 8, Number 4, April 2002

Historical Review

Megadrought and Megadeath in 16th Century Mexico

Rodolfo Acuna-Soto,* David W. Stahle, † Malcolm K. Cleaveland,† and Matthew D. Therrell†
*Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico and †University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA

Figure 2. Winter-spring precipitation reconstructed from tree ring data, Durango, Mexico (normalized and smoothed to highlight decennial variability). The tree-ring estimates explain 56% of the variance in precipitation for Durango and are consistent with independent precipitation data. This reconstruction is well correlated with the all-Mexico rainfall index (r = 0.76; p < 0.001) and with precipitation over north central Mexico, where the cocoliztli epidemics appear to have been most severe. Note the unprecedented 16th-century megadrought during both cocoliztli epidemics.

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This page last reviewed June 21, 2002

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