Volume 12, Number 4, April 2006

1951 Influenza Epidemic, England and Wales, Canada, and the United States

Cécile Viboud,* Theresa Tam,† Douglas Fleming,‡ Mark A Miller,* and Lone Simonsen*
*National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA; †Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; and ‡Royal College of General Practitioners, Harborne, Birmingham, United Kingdom

Figure 4. Age-specific pneumonia and influenza (P&I) excess death rates in the 1951 influenza epidemic, 1957, and 1968 pandemics, Canada. A) Observed. B) Exponential models using 5-year age groups starting at age 55 years and ending at >90 years (R² >0.85 for all seasons). Black curve: "null distribution" of expected pattern in epidemic seasons, based on major epidemics in the interpandemic periods, 1950–1999 (N = 17). The age coefficient was set at the mean of the "null" distribution (see Table 3 for values). The intercept was set at the minimum of the distribution for legibility.

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This page last reviewed March 28, 2006

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