Volume 12, Number 3, March 2006

Medication Sales and Syndromic Surveillance, France

Elisabeta Vergu,*†‡ Rebecca F. Grais,*† Hélène Sarter,*† Jean-Paul Fagot,*† Bruno Lambert,§ Alain-Jacques Valleron,*†¶ and Antoine Flahault*†#
*Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Medicale Unité, Paris, France; †Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France; ‡Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique MIA, Jouy-en-Josas, France; §IMS FRANCE, Puteaux, France; ¶Hôpital Saint-Antoine, Paris, France; and #Hôpital Tenon, Paris, France

Figure 3. Evolution of regional influenzalike illness (ILI) incidence during the 2003–04 epidemic. The observed maps (first line) were constructed by using data from the French Sentinel Network. The forecast maps (for the first 6 epidemic weeks) 1, 2, and 3 weeks ahead show the results of the regional models when medication sales are used. The forecast horizon is indicated below each map. For example, for 2003(49), ILI predicted incidence is calculated by employing the model with data until week 47 of year 2003. Thus, the time forecasting horizon is 2 weeks.

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This page last reviewed February 21, 2006

Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal
National Center for Infectious Diseases
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention