Disease Risk from Foods, England and Wales, Appendix 1

Past Issue

Vol. 11, No. 3
March 2005

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•	Appendix 2
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Research

Disease Risks from Foods, England and Wales, 1996–2000

Goutam K. Adak,* Sallyanne M. Meakins,* Hopi Yip,* Benjamin A. Lopman,* and Sarah J. O'Brien*
*Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, London, United Kingdom

Appendix 1 Methods Formulas

(Example: impact of disease attributable to the consumption of chicken, pathogen 1 = nontyphoidal salmonellae)

A) All infectious intestinal disease (IDD) due to pathogen 1, 1996–2000

C_P1 = L_P1 x a_P1

(All IID due to nontyphoidal salmonellae 1996–2000, 464,549 = 119,115 x 3.9)

Where: C_P1 = cases of disease due to pathogen 1

L_P1 = laboratory reports for pathogen 1

A_P1 = ascertainment ratio for pathogen 1

B) Indigenous infectious intestinal disease due to pathogen 1, 1996–2000

C_P1,E = C_P1 x e_P1

(All indigenous IID due to nontyphoidal salmonellae 1996–2000, 399,480 = 464,549 x 85.99%)

Where: C_P1,E = cases of indigenously acquired disease due to pathogen 1

e_P1 = percentage of disease due to pathogen 1 acquired in England and Wales

C) Indigenous foodborne disease (IFD) due to pathogen 1, 1996–2000

C_P1,E,F = C_P1,E x f_P1

(All IFD due to nontyphoidal salmonellae 1996–2000, 365,963 = 399,480 x 91.61%)

Where: C_P1,E,F = cases of IFD due to pathogen 1

f_P1 = percentage of foodborne transmission for disease due to pathogen 1

Ci) G_P1,E,F = C_P1,E,F x g_P1

(IFD cases due to nontyphoidal salmonellae seen by general practitioners, 1996–2000, 261,402 = 365,963 x 71.42%)

Where: G_P1,E,F = general practitioner cases of IFD due to pathogen 1

g_P1 = percentage of cases that present to general practice for pathogen 1

Cii) H_P1,E,F = G_P1,E,F x h_P1

(IFD hospitalizations due to nontyphoidal salmonellae, 1996–2000, 13,332 = 261,402 x 5.10%)

Where: H_P1,E,F = hospitalized cases of IFD due to pathogen 1

h_P1 = percentage of GP cases that are hospitalized for pathogen 1

Ciii) B_P1,E,F = H_P1,E,F x b_P1

(IFD hospital occupancy due to nontyphoidal salmonellae 1996–2000, 77,323 = 13,332 x 5.8)

Where: B_P1,E,F = Bed days in hospital for IFD due to pathogen 1

b_P1 = average hospital stay for illness due to pathogen 1

Civ) D_P1,E,F = G_P1,E,F x d_P1

(Deaths from IFD due to nontyphoidal salmonellae, 1996–2000, 1,046 = 261,402 x 0.40%)

Where: D_P1,E,F = Deaths from IFD due to pathogen 1

d_P1 = percentage deaths in general practitioner cases for pathogen 1

D) IFD per year due to pathogen 1 attributable to food 1*

C_AnnP1,E,FI = (C_P1,E,F x fI_P1)/5

(All IFD per year due to nontyphoidal salmonellae attributable to chicken, 13,169 = [365,963 x 17.99%]/5)

Where: C_AnnP1,E,FI = cases of IFD per year due to pathogen 1 attributable to food 1

fI_P1 = percentage of IFD due to pathogen 1 attributable to food 1

E) All cases of IFD per year attributable to food 1*

C_AnnE,FI = C_AnnP1,E,FI + C_AnnP2,E,FI + C_AnnP3,E,FI C_AnnPn,E,FI

(All cases of IFD per year attributable to chicken, 398,420 = 13,169_salmonella + 168,828_{Campylobacter} _sp + 25,478 _{Cl.
perfringens} + 3,824_{otherbacteria} + 10,224_viruses + 176,897_unknown)

Where: C_AnnE,FI = all cases per year of IFD attributable to food 1

F) Risk of IFD associated with the consumption of food 1

R_Ann,FI = C_AnnE,FI/S_E,FI

(Risk of IFD attributed to chicken 111.39 = 398,420/3,576.87)

Where: R_AnnE,FI = risk for IFD associated with the consumption of food 1

(expressed as cases per million servings)

S_E,FI = total servings of food 1 (expressed by the million)

1 serving = 140 g for poultry, red meat and fish/shellfish, 200 mL for milk, 150 g for dairy produce, 63 g for eggs, 80 g for vegetables, fruit, and rice

*Analagous calculations were used to produce estimates for general practitioner case-patients, hospital case-patients/occupancy, deaths, and hospitalization risk.

Comments to the Authors

Please use the form below to submit correspondence to the authors or contact them at the following address:

G.K. Adak, Environmental and Enteric Diseases Department, Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, United Kingdom; fax: +44 20-8200-7868; email: bob.adak@hpa.org.uk

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